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snowwman

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Everything posted by snowwman

  1. snowwman
    Intense height anomaly in the strat over Greenland. If that were to propagate downwards and directly, that would spell a Greenland block. However, there's a question as to whether the downwelling would be vertical, as the stratospheric and tropospheric vortices are often in different locations.
  2. snowwman
    I thought from reading this thread this afternoon that the world had ended, and it seems to be centred around a single GFS run. Even this run's ensemble stamps at day 16 are in favour of blocking or blocking potential; 13 out of 20 go for this
  3. snowwman
    Not sure we need to worry too much about that UKMO low, as it seems to be being pushed North- East over us, by the high moving in said direction. The high is being fuelled by the Canadian PV lobe.
  4. snowwman
    Yup, Something between a Northery and and Easterly is where I think this run's headed. Most likely outcome: sustained Easterly (with undercutting latter on).
  5. snowwman
    To my thinking, ECM is going for a sustained Easterly- sort of like the 12Z GFS but which sticks around.
  6. snowwman
    Does seem unlikely with the strong vortex to the North, but GFS Para supports a shifting of the vortex to Siberia over the past 24 hours' available runs. This may be what ECM is in the process of doing in this chart.
  7. snowwman
    For coldies, an excellent ECM run, and the GEFS output is decent, too, even to day 16.
  8. snowwman
    It's tempting to think that- after all, it's what almost always happens in these scenarios. However, a check through charts dating to cold and snowy winters of the past often show "horrendous" set-ups, shortly before strong Northern blocking establishes. As far as GFS at 204 is concerned, it could easilly go Northerly from there.
  9. snowwman
    Definitely a cold cluster in there towards the end of the run, though.
  10. snowwman
    Latest available ECMWF ensemble at mean for D10 maintains low heights into the Med, just about, and certainly leaves a reload of the Northerly open: .
  11. snowwman
    Just what I was thinking.
  12. snowwman
    So basically, from what I can make out, it's done no worse than GFS and may even be somewhere between GFS and ECMWF. Tells me that perhaps we should taking this model's output more seriously.
  13. snowwman
    I'm interested in finding- out how GFS Para has performed since it became functional. Anyone have any stats?
  14. snowwman
    Indeed, this is interesting. I noticed that yesterday's 12Z ECMWF retrograded the Siberian high, so this idea has support.
  15. snowwman
    And we didn't have a weak (or strong) 10hPa vortex that winter, before the very cold February 1986.
  16. snowwman
    Haven't found a close anologue, but examining some of the winters in the list here: https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/wind_1985_MERRA2_NH.html I can't find any relationship between 10hPa wind speed and direction and surface cold in the UK, even factoring- in delays, but then haven't run a comprehensite analysis. Others may conclude otherwise.
  17. snowwman
    It's worth noting that the models in the above MJO chart have differing end-points. You have to examine each one separately to have a better idea of what they're saying. One might think, for example, that UKMO goes to the 25th, whereas is doesn't- the end of its run is much closer in, and that by said date might be much more impressive.
  18. snowwman
    Remarkable stuff from the GFS ensembles- everything from an Easterly to a Northerly!
  19. snowwman
    The important thing is don't take my word for it- I'm not a pro and have very limited access to data, and that data might contradict other data, but I concluded in honesty what I did from what I had. I would hope that any of what we know about the strat would be of a better quality than my own research, and that human error is minimized, in the implications for the model output. And about the shape of the vortex, exactly, Steve- that's what it's about.
  20. snowwman
    It's surprizing how much variation there is between sources. As you suggest, it depends on how you define them. I do wonder, given all this, whether the weather models have properly integrated what we think we know about SSW data into their output.
  21. snowwman
    28th January: http://www.google.co.uk/url?q=http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/martius%2Bpolvani%2Bdavies-GRL-2009.pdf&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwiS9uf5q-zQAhUnDcAKHU-lC2oQFggQMAA&usg=AFQjCNHwBsKhcXo9vyQQs7Z8d0W3ruKn4A , so couldn't have caused it. Not a criticism of your reaearch, Steve- in fact I'm a fan of your posts. Just thought I'dd add a little of my own research so we wouldn't be as worried about 10hPa forecasts from various models!
  22. snowwman
    Sub zero.
  23. snowwman
    As I recall, the SWW in 1962 happened way after the cold set in on in late December. I'll try to recover some of the data and get back to you.
  24. snowwman
    As I recall, I factored that in, and even went to 4 weeks.
  25. snowwman
    I'd like to re run my analysis, but I concluded the last time that a split strat is positively harmful for our chances of cold.
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