PureOcean
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Posts posted by PureOcean
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I agree with you there. Can see no damage where i live here in chatham
Medway area had wind from west and not as strong as further east and south east where the wind was south west, the local geography of medway worked against you with this storm.
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That was a quick and powerful little storm for sure, I have heard on facebook some people thinking it was not much, but that is because it was localized to specific areas really mostly along the south and south east, but areas of Kent I know got battered, and just in my social network over 11 trees are down in peoples gardens and roads and lots of damage from roof tiles, to fences etc... it hit really strong Kent between 6:00am to 07:30am when the gusts caused all the damage, I recorded on handheld 82mph gust but I know there were stronger ones and we had sustained wind in the 40's.
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I think its over for herne bay
The strongest winds were with this stretch from 6am to 7:30am, wind will still continue to be in the region of 30 to 45mph but we were getting winds with gusts up to 84mph in Whitstable between the earlier times.
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As some are now saying tomorrow into Saturday seems a good possibility for most in here now, but this looks like it could reload and bring more through the week. 12Z GFS will lead us into a new conversation later I reckon but look what the 06z had anyway!
Exactly my point earlier. Thanks for posting this.
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Am I allowed a few shackles on:
Complete non event for Kent
Please
(But not please if you see what I mean
)Damn phone may have posted this 5 times!!
It is possible that it coudl be less for Kent, but it is highly unlikely as all the evidence shows that it will be gaining moisture as well enroute, so I doubt this would happen, good point though, and it is always best to edge on the base of caution, but alas I think this time they are spot on expect between 7 to 14cm in general in Kent but you in Medway will get more due to your geography.
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Can you just get them to push that amber warning another 2 or 3 miles into essex then i will be under it lol
It will move over as the day tomorrow goes on, they wont move it yet as they can not be sure how much will be in the clouds left when it hits south east. If they are still heavy clouds they will move than amber!
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First off, please be aware that warnings will come and go over the coming 24 hours, local geography and scenerios will change things regular.
Secondly, the south east will receive snow - without question and most likely some areas bad as always happens. However don't concentrate all your efforts on what we already know is going to happen. Look at what is happening afterward, and the trend shows more snow and an unsettled cold spell of showers for the south east for a number of days into next week, and moving on from that the long range is looking for a pro-longed cold spell, which means that the snow if it falls heavy initially on this first front could be with us for a period of time being topped up regular, particular for Kent, Essex and Anglia.
Hope that helps.
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Time will tell... Time will tell!
Going to clock off now, have a drink, relax and come back later.
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Hi PO nice to see you commenting on here again,been asking for a few hours if this will fall as snow as I am still at 3c and -4c dewpoint,and I can only assume you believe it will.
I certainly do believe this will be snow. This takes me back to a set up in 1986, just pulled the charts out, looks practically identical but the sea then was two degrees colder, the warmer sea is fueling this. I am used to Lake Snow effects in the states a lot with my storm chasing and this is exactly what we have here. Experience is what counts now, not charts, if you look at the variables, wind direction and more, I have NE at 18 MPH currently at ground level and I can see the radar performing exactly the same. So I am confident that your points will change. Only time will tell.
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The upper wind is still a slight NE direction which should bring it inland a bit but it will be a mainly far East event.
Majority of Kent should get hit, I just had a message from a friend who is senior at the gritters in Kent, and they just received a special warning from Met office to expect snow upto 5 to 6" as far west as the boundares of the county, so they are expecting like I have plotted it.
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so if its coming, why has bbc weather not metioned it at all ? just watched news 24 and not showing much for us at all
They dont mention anything until it hits, they cant react quick. Never have been able to. Its like the Met Office, very slow at times. Where I live in the USA a lot we get instant warnings of heavy snow, in the UK they just seem to watch it....
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its more of a northerly direction im afraid, it will onlly clip kent
Nope your incorrect, been plotting this development since this morning, all the factors, its heading nicely in. Local conditions starting to prevail.
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So many people on here were freaking this morning over no snow - those in the know just said calm down, now you see why.
here she comes and approximately 200 miles of Kent streamer it looks like, majority heavy snow, the warm sea is fueling it like lake snow effect. Fantastic! -
All this talk about snow, i want to know when is it going to get cold?
The ground level in thanet is cold enough for snow to reach soil level, and this will continue to drop over the next 24/48 hours. The level above Thanet is also now at -5c and more and that will also allow formation of snow, so or less you suddenly get a warm area appear from all the sheep farting then anything you shoudl get falling should be snow. However weather is impossible sometimes to get right and thanet is a micro-climate for Kent so you may have different.
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I would suggest it's futile at the moment getting hung up on snow prospects after tomorrow. From experience showers or even streamers can get going with very little warning so why worry at this stage? The fact is it ought to be cold enough and merely getting this in place is easier said than done!
Enjoy the next few days.
Spot on..... That is 100% correct, with the sea temperature and the current conditions it is very possible a number of large streamers could form and punch into Essex and Kent running inland for 60 miles and dumping lots. You are spot on saying anything can happen.
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Here is the latest image of the snow in the estuary, building and deepening cloud, really getting to grips with the sea temperature and deepening the clouds to produce some more sustained lake snow effect.
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I think a lot of inexperienced weather enthusiasts on here currently, please be patient, learn by plotting and reading charts, do not rely on computer generated simulations all the time, the best computer you all have is your brain, take in all the data, plot it, consider it, review it regular and you will get a far clearer enjoyable picture. So many variables in play in the South East this time of year, many layers of air at different temperatures, the sea itself playing a large roll too, and geography locally adding to this and then the larger overal picture.
Snow is coming, how much, how long, is a question impossible to answer, but you will not find the full answers looking at a simulation. The atmosphere is very volatile currently, just look at the snow that just built up in the estuary between Kent and Essex, you won't find that on a BBC forecast, as it is something they had not shown on the computer and something they forgot on the variables. Enjoy the moments this is when you really learn to predict snow.
Speach over!
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Lake effect snow building just off Kent and Essex coastline interesting to see it build over the warm water. Nothing major but fun to see changing.
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GFS very disappointing with the latest run. A few days ago, today seemed hopeful for snow. Then it was Monday night, now thats getting away from us again. That is two runs where things have been downgraded. I don't want to sound downbeat, but i'm not particularly hopeful now.
There's still time for things to upgrade again, but this always seems to happen.
Don't be down beat, we are an island and as such our weather is so changeable like this, that is what the attraction and fun is. The reality is we are dealing in this case with so many factors including a warmer sea than normal which effects things too, so be patient, and things will happen. I do agree though it does always seem to happen a big build up then "puff!" but that is only if you follow tv forecasts etc... when they are too far out. The data tomorrow will give us much better idea.
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Looks like some more snow heading our way for north coastline and north east coastline of Kent in the next couple hours or so... will wait and see. Nice end to the cold spell.
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Make the most of it this morning, that maybe it for a while! Less cold air coming down from the north later today.
Can't complain, we've all seen some snow and had some very low temperatures, particularly outside London where the snow cover has been retained and kept max temps close to freezing ever since the snow fell Saturday the weekend before.
Certainly been a nice spell to enjoy for sure, some testing forecasting times... been fun!
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Must say getting far more snow than I expected this morning... we really are getting a good snow fall!
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Morning mate
I too am enjoying an unexpected gift...very nice too! Keep going snow - how long is it expected to last?
We have a few nice showers coming in, but once they have gone we will be saying goodbye to the snow... nice dusting here building up in Whitstable, think Isle of Sheppy been hit good.... already have 1.5cm's in whitstable. Wont last long though.
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Nice Snow falling in Whitstable, Kent - a dusting at present but still falling.
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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 26/10/13
in Regional
Posted
Really calmed down now here in Whitstable, the sea now has no white horses at all and the conditions are 200% better than 3 hours ago, you could look out the window and not even realise the damage that has been caused in the county. A really fast moving storm. Have a friend in Denmark who said they are on real alert, all bridges are closed already and public transport being stopped they are expecting to be hit bad.