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Everything posted by Lakigigar

  1. hopefully this will be a very long solar minimum.
  2. I also believe we will have three much colder than normal winters in a row now.
  3. In Belgium average year december 1,0C: 18,93% top 20 spotless years, december 1,0C: 40% average year january 0,5C: 21,30% top 20 spotless years, january 0,5C: 55% average year february 1,0C: 21,89% top 20 spotless years, february 1,0C: 30% But... We must not forget that overall solar activity was lower during the 2nd half of the 19th century than during most of the 20th century, and that the Earth did warm substantially, so that the percentages of both an average year and of a top 20 spotless year might be much, much lower, and that the difference between a top 20 spotles
  4. what is normal chance of getting a december of 3.6C or colder in UK?
  5. What do those 20 spotless days change about the upcoming winter???
  6. Still i don't get it. What's the difference between 180 spotless days and 200 spotless days? And doesn't amount of sunspots also matter. What's that sunspot that stayed there during half of august going to change? I know there is a correlation, but it's predictable when a sun cycle will end and when not... so i could predict a long time beforehand that this year, 2019 and 2020 will have low solar activity, and that the winters of '18-'19, '19-20, '20-'21 and possibly '21-'22 have potential. I think because of eQBO the winters of '18-'19 and '20-'21 have most potential to be cold.
  7. why is it so important to have spotless days?
  8. January : January 2010 February : February 2012 March : March 2013 April : April 2013 May : May 2018 June : June 2017 July : July 2018 August : August 2015? September : No idea, september 2010 probably October : October 2017? November : November 2010 December : December 2010 Hard for the autumn months... for some reason. None actually really excite me unless you want endless indian summer. Can't remember a decent storm in the autumn anymore. Favourite weather year: 2010 or 2018 Least favourite weather year: 2015
  9. Is solar cycle 25 going to be a very weak one?
  10. Probably continuation of the drought, like it happened in 1959 or 1540. Weak el nino, low hurricane activity, low sun activity are also well factors for a cold winter. If same air pressure patterns hold until than, we might have a cold or even legendary winter (and we're due for that). I think the drought will continue to last, and might evolve into a multi-year event, with of course sometimes brief periods of relief / precipation, but in general drought. Our region (west of Belgium) had last year also a severe drought in the spring, and we're already in a more continental climate than a
  11. Drought in Belgium as well... Haven't had rain since june.
  12. Oh come on, when i checked before for nov/dec/jan they also went for way warmer than normal, and it looks like november will turn out to be colder, so dec and jan will have some cathing up work to do. It's just bullsuper duper, all those models. There is almost no place on the entire plant where there is a decent chance of cold winter. That's just not true. I'm checking those models for years, and CFS never went for a cold winter in almost ten years, and in warmer years they turn out to be right, and in colder years they turn out to be horribly wrong.
  13. The roof of the prime minister's house is gone. There is flooding inside his house.
  14. I think we will see an early winter snap, probably mid-november.
  15. What is UKMO seeing because i can't see anything that comes close to slight below average during settled spells.
  16. where there is a little more potential for a more prolonged settled, colder period of weather. It isn't bad, this is also a good sentence, maybe not that good as the sentence they mentioned, but we have to look to the positive details. Chanches that they're right are actually zero on that term.
  17. Frustrating. It is impossible to get cold to here.
  18. Pff did they ever say something different this winter. Always wet N/W, drier S/E.
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