solarcycle

I believe in climate change but I don't agree with the way this man was punished. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/15/philippe-verdier-french-weatherman-question-climate-change

Maybe she'll whisper it in my ear if I ask nicely.

The BBC made a cryptic reference to the coming winter this morning. I was watching the lovely Steph McGovern deliver a piece about energy suppliers and she said if the coming winter is any more severe than currently forecast there could be problems with our energy supple. So which forecast is she referring to and I wonder how severe it is forecast to be! More questions than answers from Ms McGovern.

And a rather dodgy reading if I recall. There was a suggestion it could have coincided with the back wash from a jet engine. I share your scepticism. But back on track. I would like the autumn to continue cool and settled, gradually cooling until a brief stormy period in the latter days of November ushers in a cold and snowy December. Then sunshine over the frozen landscape for Christmas and New Year. More snow in January, another couple of weeks of cold High Pressure, a snow top up in Feb and a gradual warm up starting in March.

Lovely cool and bright autumn morning today in London.

Already in Eastern Europe, because of course the eastern most geographic boundary of Europe is the Ural mountains.

Also everyone seems to forget how sunny last winter was. Record winter sunshine if I recall correctly, nowhere near as bad as the horrors of the 13/14 winter.

Cold GFS Op run. FI, outlier and all that but good to see nonetheless.

So I'm guessing the soil would have acted as a protective layer and reduced the rate of snow melt beneath?

When was the last time London had lying snow on Xmas day?

Exactly, many people struggle with the concept of average for some reason and that is before we get into mean, median and mode!

Are you hopecasting?

Just saw a gfs ensemble run with a sub zero minimum for London at the end of the run. Silly season approacheth!

Oymyakon already getting overnight minima of -11 this weekend. Talk about extreme climate.

Not sure but I wouldn't mind seeing your namesake this year!

I'm on the fence at the moment. But I have to say that last winter was very good for one thing, the amount of sunshine! Hoping for more of that this time around.

If someone invented a method of NWP tomorrow that had 100% verification would you be pleased or disappointed that some of the fun of uncertainty had gone out of the business?

I'm looking forward to some classic sunny and crisp autumn weather too. Long may the models show this kind of weather. I have to say what winds me up is those who have no real knowledge but learn a few nwp/meteorological stock phrases to sound pseudo-intellectual. But I'll leave it there. I'm always happy to ramp up sunshine!

What would be the effects on the European climate if Arctic sea ice reached record high extents like Antarctica has experienced recently?

It is all rather civilised on the model output thread at the moment. How long until the usual winter trolling, extreme toy throwing and ill informed posters claiming to be experts begins? I'd hate to be a mod here.

It is a bright, bright sunshiney day here in London.

I'm curious. Do you have any verification stats to back up that statement? Genuinely curious as to why you say that.

-25 in Warsaw. +48 in Sydney. The latter is far more unpleasant than the former let me tell you.

Lovely crisp autumn morning today. I picked some sloes over the weekend which are now going to weave their magic in a bottle of gin.