solarcycle

But the strange thing is that I see other comments claiming the meto overprog temperatures because of their 'warmist agenda.' They're damned if they do an damned if they don't. I really don't think they forecast using a model of 'under promise, over deliver.'

A very straight forward forecast? I'd say that is a very brave statement but hats off to you if you get it right.

Probably the same confidence that treats the MJO as the sole driver and predictor of the weather of a small island on the western edge of Europe.

I must say I wouldn't be all that bothered if we had a repeat of winter 2014/15. Lots of sunshine, some nice frost and none of the relentless rain of the previous year. What I would like most of all though is a cold Xmas and NY period. Doesn't even have to be snowy, icy sunshine will help it feel seasonal.

You're not the only one. I love properly defined seasons. What is so frustrating for me is how both January and June can have grey days with a maximum in the mid teens. Summer should be hot, winter should be cold. But that is an oceanic climate for you. What I'd really like is a moderate humid continental climate like say Poland. Proper seasons but not crazy extreme like say Siberia.

Not sure what area of the country you're looking at. Latest for London doesn't really show this.

The Met Office is suggesting something cooler than average for the South East come the end of November. I'd be interested to see what someone more knowledgeable than I thinks on how this fits into the model output.

Oh CFS! Why do you troll us so?

A beautiful photo essay about a meteorologist who braves the arguably most isolated and extreme dedicated weather station. http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2015/oct/26/evgenia-arbugaeva-weather-man-the-most-cut-off-man-on-earth-in-pictures

I'd say it is bang on the 61-10 average. Not sure about that cheeky little 1960 though

Very promising for coldies and very well explained. Makes much better reading than broad brush statements like some weather webpages, and/or sheer blagging (Mr Madden I'm looking at you).

Completely possible in your neck of the woods.

I'll happily decline and tank for a cold winter

7.0 please

Thank you Lorenzo. Everyone who says the OPI 'doesn't work' should be redirected to this comment.

He is almost as bad as the express.

The express meteo-trolls are at it again. http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/612369/SHOCK-CLAIM-World-is-on-brink-of-50-year-ICE-AGE-and-BRITAIN-will-bear-the-brunt

According to the meteo-trolls over at the express we're heading for an ice age. http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/612369/SHOCK-CLAIM-World-is-on-brink-of-50-year-ICE-AGE-and-BRITAIN-will-bear-the-brunt

No. It is quite frustrating seeing this being stated so often. The OPI simply had a high correlation with the following seasons AO. It wasn't a 100% correlation and even if it was a negative AO isn't a cast iron guarantee of cold for the UK. More work is needed before the OPI can be dismissed. Mods, apologies for off topic post.

I let out a bit of wee looking at that one.

So gently steering back to discussion of winter 2015/16. I'd take one proper snow fall of several inches that lasts on the ground for a few days, enough so I can get out with my kids and build a snowman. I love cold weather but my concern is always the fact this country is useless at dealing with it and I hate the constant moaning from people who seem surprised winter exists every year. Also can anyone tell me what accuracy rates the long range forecasting tools like JAMSTEC have? Is there one that is the best?

Fair enough but he is a television weather man not an employee of a scientific organisation. Would you support a correspondent who specialises in science/medicine to be fired if they wrote a paper on homeopathy? They'd look bloody silly but as long as they continued to do their real job properly they shouldn't be fired.

Check this out. I'm not a climate change denier but this is ridiculous. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/15/philippe-verdier-french-weatherman-question-climate-change