solarcycle

Why not? It isn't an outrageous suggestion. In 2008 there was settling snow in London on 6 April.

At the risk of being facetious, the important thing here is the first S in SSW. Sudden. We could just see a sudden appearance of cold weather on the models or then again, we may not. An SSW is no guarantee of wintry nirvana.

Snow over Camborne!

Nonsense. The 06z isn't 'useless.' I don't know why this old chestnut keeps getting brought up. A mean chart for two weeks away on the other hand is truly useless.

Well, well, well. 06z ensemble 2m temps for London still showing a brief milder blip and then cold all the way through. More chilly days to make up for the mild damp horror of much of this winter.

06z ensembles for London showing a brief warm up, although it won't be truly mild, then a return to below average. A late winter treat for having to endure so much mild muck. Leave it until after the end of astronomical winter to begin looking for warmth.

I strongly disagree. There should be a clear distinction between the seasons. At least 8C feels like December.

I am really happy with the proper model thread. Lots of informative posts and the whining and trolling of the past appears to have pretty much disappeared. Well played to everyone who posts there and kudos to the mods for keeping it in such good shape too.

Yesterday was a pleasant surprise for London!

I had proper falling snow earlier. Always welcome in London. Even more so when in November.

Care to post any charts to back that statement up?

BBC weather forecast just now seemed to follow above from French high res.

Polar maritime and returning polar maritime with not much tropical maritime. In other words on the cooler side of average with winds from the west and north west more than south west.

Seriously though, CFS is awful.

CFS is hardly the most reliable model. No reputable forecaster would set much faith in it.

Zomg o noe there isnt gonna be 6 foot of teh snow in Lundon in November. Winter is over!!!1 Been wanting to do that for a while. In the meantime, back in reality, good riddance to unseasonably mild muck.

Thanks knocker. When you post about cold I can believe it might happen.

But in all seriousness I suspect the weather is about to make fools of us again.

It had to be done... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw

Can someone please explain how one post on this page says the vortex is shredded yet another, presumably using the same nwp output says it is forming strongly. Coming to completely opposite conclusions makes no sense to me. Who is it who has this wrong? It has to be one or the other.

I'm looking forward to all the drama and theatrics that the first sniff of cold will produce.

Would be nice but can't see it happening any time soon. The worst part is that preferences can lead to confirmation bias when it comes to forecasting.

I'm all for honesty! But heck, I'll put my neck on the line and say that Roger J Smith's prediction of late winter cold feels like the form horse for me at the moment.

That last one I've underlined. Is he the one that comes on in winter and does thinly disguised mild trolling and then gets all defensive when called out? The fact he hasn't logged on since March should tell you something. And in IDOs defence he does make well reasoned and well evidenced posts even if he does have a bit of a fetish for posting 15 day means Gavin is a balanced poster actually, he will acknowledge cold if it is genuinely on the way. Besides, on the 30 October it is a fools errand to make cast iron predictions about winter.

Can you tell me this week's euromillions numbers?