MattTarrant

I'll report those that responded with emoji's .

I have never been Skiing so lacking knowledge, but do chairlifts have emergency shutdown capabilities? If not perhaps a system like an emergency exit where glass has to be broken to gain access to shutdown lever/button.

1- 3 cm seems to be the cross model consensus. Euro4 didn't handle Storm Emma as well as Hirlam & ARPEGE, in that Swansea wouldn't of had anything with regards to accumulation charts (had 2cm). I will have to admit it has an uncanny resemblance to 1st March episode (Not as intense though).

I may have brought a snow shield from Tiverton (Devon) where I used to live. Literally nothing settled after the 2013 cold spell, annoying that once you begin to understand the processes of snow it doesn't ever fall much where you live...

If only it was snow .

Whatever the outcome, Spring is well and truly struggling to stay afloat for the foreseeable future.

Under cloud after a cold night it would not be as simple you make it out to be. It snowed with 0 850hPa last cold spell.

The ICON - EU as a macro scale model has really impressed me in the last month, the same can not be said about its High Res 7km charts.

ARPEGE handled Storm Emma accumulation values well, though obviously as mentioned by yourself it likely fared a little worse in other setups in the past. In regards to the verification statistics of the 'High Res Models' (Yourself Posted A Graph A Few Weeks Back), Arome delivered the highest score though seemingly struggled from the 26th (Feb) to 3rd (March). If ARPEGE continues to be analysed a very crude rule of thumb may potentially be used; . In a broad precipitation (snow) setup, subtract 1 - 3 cm off the total. 5cm predicted (0z Run 1 March) In Swansea Region, only 2/3cm Fell. . In a showery setup, conclude a less broad nature to snow accumulations. . Within 36hr it models well the areas of heaviest snow. HIRLAM & Euro4 perform consistently also albeit Euro4 having a weakness in North Westerly airflow's.

That notion must be put in context through a number of aspects. The first being the synoptics itself, this spell hasn't been modeled as extending for a great period. The background signals have seemingly suggested the likelihood of a limited window. The first cold spell was in fact extended by a day or two as a result of models generally being a little bullish with Storm Emma. The cleanness of the synoptics has also made keeping the cold conditions difficult. Secondly the time of year has to considered, the upcoming spell would likely be extended to the end of next week with very low maxima if in January, though mid march inhibits this.

May not be as 'powdery' as the first spell but damn for mid march is will unimaginably powdery.

Not convinced. We do though need to allow the time range to reduce to allow for greater confidence in the locality and intensity of potential streamers, maybe even a notable trough feature?

It states 18cm as MAX.

The absence of the upper 500mb low (GFS & Partially UKMO) does seriously inhibit convective potential. The result would be a predominately dry weekend, with flurries limited to the English/Welsh borders. The Below GFS 6z Show sThe Upper Low Across Northern France (Blue Area). Skew - T Forecast Sunday 12:00 (Cardiff): The Dew Point & Temperature signature show at best a partially saturated atmosphere. The highest saturation (Closest Meeting Point) is sounded at a low altitude, showing very shallow convection within the 1000 - 900mb vertical sector (Sea Level - 1000m). Cape (Convective Available Potential Energy) & Lapse Rates being low limit the convection further. Not all models take the Upper Low as far south as the GFS. ECM & ICON further north with the UKMO a middle ground situation. As a result the Skew - T forecasts would be more promising with regard to inland convection, though NO BIG TOTALS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR WALES (5cm MAX).

There will be some shocked folk on the weekend, notably Sunday with temperatures 0 - 4 . It will feel around 10 degrees colder by Sunday with some sporadic snow cover across Wales.

Angle of solar radiation (not sun strength) will limit duration of snow cover. I always question those who say 'Sun strength', not strictly true as reason for seasonal cycles is the angle of incidence.

I say with high confidence that snow totals will be far reduced on the last spell. Saturday morning should see the introduction of the far colder airmass via a weakening wintry front moving east to west (accelerated form of last night's fax charts). This will herald an introduction into a deeply unstable and showery airstream, providing snow showers to eastern counties through Saturday. These showers will spread well inland by Sunday with nowhere immune from sporadic cover. Also very low confidence for a period of more persistent snow transitioning off the continent Saturday night/Sunday morning. Snow cover may become disruptive locally though no major disruption is currently signalled.

It was interesting seeing that divergence between the fax & UKMO in the run up to the last cold spell. The automated forecast temperatures currently suggested for Sunday would suggest against the fax setup, Norwich (3) & Swansea (4). Though I don't want to over analysis and just let the setup evolve.

WHAT WOULD BE NICE IS IF IT HIT SWANSEA!!!!!!!!!

The snow is a little heavier towards the mumbles side of the city, hence why here on the student village there is actually some minor depth starting to form.

Not surprised, is a few cm enough for an amber? We are still in though so i think we will see around 5 - 7 cm.

Though if you look at the Met Office video forecast it has more snow pushing west into the evening than yesterday so basically stop viewing forecasts and look at radar.

Snow either way!

Sensational run, however, likely to be a major outlier within the EPS but definitely something to watch.

What a shower!!!!