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MattTarrant

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Everything posted by MattTarrant

  1. I believe he just took a screenshot before it all loaded! WXcharts can often be a little slow to change its scales when going inbetween diffrerent map sizes.
  2. Hey everybody, First off hope everybody is managing themselves during this very difficult time, both mentally and physically! Though as I am sure everybody will agree that this forum has acted as a good place for many, with many helpful topics and thoughtful members! Though as the 'Covid 19' threads can be rather depressing, I have decided to devise this thread as a distraction for those who are struggling or just as a means of thinking and talking about events of the past! This thread: . Discuss people's personal memories of certain events, whether its personal or simply memo
  3. The FV3 I believe was tested for about 5 years, the stratosphere was something barely recognized in the testing phase or at least in the presentations about the new model. Time will tell I guess, keep the negatives until the event has happened and then we can see who is right!
  4. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alicia.Bentley/fv3gfs/updates/EMC_CCB_FV3GFS_9-24-18.pdf The above is a link a to a presentation (2018) where a few comments are about the stratosphere in the FV3 GFS These points are found on page 53 FV3GFS Temps are similar to GFS in middle and lower stratosphere • FV3GFS Temps are warmer in upper stratosphere • FV3GFS Temp fcsts in winter hem upper strat high lats are colder • Zonal Winds are slightly worse in FV3GFS at longer fcst times • Ozone mixing ratio analyses and fcsts are similar • Total ozone anal are diff
  5. Tropical Depression 10 has formed in the central tropical Atlantic and is forecast to move WNW/NW. Forecasted to be close to the Northern Leeward Islands by Friday as a #hurricane. The average (1981-2010 climatology) date for the 4th Atlantic hurricane is September 21 (@Philip Klotzbach).
  6. Absolutely love the Tiverton Canal, many bike rides along there when younger!
  7. More a phrase than a word no? ? No on a serious note both the FV3 and Legacy attempt to deconstruct the trough ECM style. Regarding the N Atlantic trough it seems relevant to notice that the ECM 12z was more amplified initially allowing for the newfoundland trough to aid the pattern transition.
  8. Raw ECM data shows 36 at 1:00 PM next Friday...So only imagine the peak temp...
  9. Interest is growing in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days as an unconventional system is forecasted to develop into a cyclone, the National Hurricane Center predicts an 80% chance of formation in the 5 day range. Uncertainty prevails but a tropical storm or weak hurricane is likely to be situated towards the Louisiana/Texas border by Friday/Saturday.
  10. The ECMWF is introducing a substantial upgrade to its Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) today (12z run). This is a notable update and includes several fundamental changes. Key changes include: . Improved continuous data assimilation (Ensemble of Data Assimilation (EDA) Increased from 25 to 50) . Wave model changes (New parametrizations for wind input & deep water dissipation of waves) . 3D aerosol climatology replaces 2D climatology. . Minor updates/improvements to convection & radiation scheme Appreciable improvements include 1 - 5% reduction in upper air
  11. Two trough features were on the fax charts, so not out question to see an area of organised showers push through. It's interesting to note a subtle difference between the ECM/GFS Vs UKMO regarding 850hpa temps, the former's have them 1/2 lower. However, at best a transient cover at low levels anyway.
  12. Slide 51 comments on stratospheric errors ? . Q3FY16GFSBriefingNCEPOD.pptx
  13. Not quite as sharp as the ECM 0z but an excellent effort, 8/10.
  14. Your the one that doesn't have a clue. It's not exactly new musings that the reversal (not really the warming) at 60hpa in the stratosphere was gradually pushed backed in time, with modelling being somewhat progressive in that nature. The 1st/2nd is almost guaranteed now as the reversal date. The Met Office, draw conclusions from an accumulation of model data, with even the best insight in the world it is impossible to predict that the models were being progressive. There is also an issue as to the extent of coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, ie the extent of downwelling. T
  15. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2584%3ATLCOTN>2.0.CO%3B2 This research paper could be of use ?. Cheers Matt
  16. Well this is an example from my families home in south west England back in March when the freezing rain was very serious. Be careful.
  17. That's why people complaining about an amber warning will likely look silly...
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