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    Swansea, Glamorgan
  • Interests
    Majority of Weather Phenomenon. Sports, specifically Table Tennis.
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds

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  1. MattTarrant

    Hurricane Florence

    An upper tropospheric (250mb) low fed some dry air but also led to shear on the southern side of Florence. This was mentioned in the recent NHC discussion, recent imagery however from the GOES - 16 shows very cold cloud tops now on the southern side. However, early land interaction seems to be limiting this from wrapping around the eyewall, thus intensity probably won't change much despite the high ocean heat content available to Florence .
  2. MattTarrant

    Hurricane Florence

    The UKMO reflects the comments you made about damage to Wilmington, I don't think with modern building codes damage will be quite to the extent you mention, but serious damage nonetheless!
  3. MattTarrant

    Hurricane Florence

    Out of interest, where do you find these?
  4. MattTarrant

    Hurricane Florence

  5. MattTarrant

    Hurricane Florence

  6. MattTarrant

    Hurricane Florence

    The Latest ECM confirms this development (at least within the operationals) that landfall is increasingly likely, indeed a major hurricane as well Edit: Beat me to it
  7. MattTarrant

    Hurricane Florence

    NHC (Advisory 29) Key points: . Increase in vertical shear (25 - 30kt estimates) has caused degradation of Florence's structure (Intensity set at 90kt/ Category 2) . Deep convection no longer symmetric (low level circulation visible) . Nuances of environmental shear forecasting causing complications in intensity predictions . Continued weakening over the next 24hrs likely as strong vertical shear continues (Category 2 > Category 1) . Movement has slowed (9kt), with a NW movement . Development of mid - level ridge will steer Florence (Post 24 - 36hrs) increasingly westwards . Florence expected to regain major hurricane status by day 4/5 (Re - Strengthening post 36hrs) . Movement post day 4 uncertain with major model suites diverging on ridge strength (ECMWF & UKMET vs GFS & HWRF)
  8. Indeed, 3 rumbles of thunder and a serious amount of rain, this is more rain than we have had in at least 2 months.
  9. MattTarrant

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Just for reference, raw operational data showcases temperature peaking at 45C! Impressive (understatement) given tendency to under play temperatures by 1 - 3C, temperature record of 47.3 would surely be under notable threat if those synoptics were actually transferred to 0h.
  10. One issue today has seemingly been the continuation/minor development of weak elevated convection from this morning. It has seemingly co existed alongside surface convection, hence why the further west broader areas of rain have been present extending cloud cover (cloud top heights were better further east)! I mentioned the possibility of a messy transition from elevated to surface convection yesterday in my forecast. The more intense cells have located in regions that exited the elevated convection in the morning!
  11. *Mid - Day Up Date* (Self Forecast) *Early elevated convection was only weakly electrified, degrading far quicker that initially forecasted. The remaining cloud cover, in line with model trends has lead to the shift of the MDT region, covering more of Wales and removing parts of the South West. The SLGT region has been extended to cover North Wales, while being removed from the far SE. This doesn't relate to the severity of the storms, isolated storms still may produce frequent lightning, large hail and excessive rainfall within the SLGT region!*
  12. I'm not referring to saturation of soils, simply their mindset is a little more cautious after several episodes of flash flooding with only yellow warnings.
  13. Though I believe the Met Office are urging on the side of caution with recent flash flooding, an amber for thunderstorms isn't that common!
  14. Thunder Fog... Has a ring to it
  15. @TJS1998Tom It is difficult to pin point the exact likelihood of Lincoln receiving a thunderstorm, though I would argue under current model guidance that an elevated batch of storms may progress far enough north to produce some sporadic lightning (Early Afternoon). It is important though to stress that a weakening trend will exist! A very isolated surface based storm could develop (Late Afternoon) also, though this considered a low to very low threat . Please use this only as a guide!