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    Swansea, Glamorgan
  • Interests
    Majority of Weather Phenomenon. Sports, specifically Table Tennis.
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds

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  1. Slide 51 comments on stratospheric errors . Q3FY16GFSBriefingNCEPOD.pptx
  2. Not quite as sharp as the ECM 0z but an excellent effort, 8/10.
  3. MattTarrant

    Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

    Your the one that doesn't have a clue. It's not exactly new musings that the reversal (not really the warming) at 60hpa in the stratosphere was gradually pushed backed in time, with modelling being somewhat progressive in that nature. The 1st/2nd is almost guaranteed now as the reversal date. The Met Office, draw conclusions from an accumulation of model data, with even the best insight in the world it is impossible to predict that the models were being progressive. There is also an issue as to the extent of coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, ie the extent of downwelling. The models have been loosely trending to a more -NAM setup with lower u values in the 100 - 300hpa region (see ECM), though there is still considerable uncertainty in this region. Now watch, in conjunction with the stratospheric plots, the extent of anomalous heights across the pole region as to a rough guide to the extent of downwelling.
  4. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2584%3ATLCOTN>2.0.CO%3B2 This research paper could be of use . Cheers Matt
  5. Well this is an example from my families home in south west England back in March when the freezing rain was very serious. Be careful.
  6. That's why people complaining about an amber warning will likely look silly...
  7. 'ICON (13km)' DOES NOT EQUAL ICON - EU (7km). Uncertain as to whether the model physics are the same (ie Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic), though the vertical and horizontal resolution are appreciably different. ICON (13km) = 60 Vertical Layers ICON - EU (7km) = 90 Vertical Layers
  8. The control run is run at a lower resolution but has no adjustments made to the raw data (same as GFS Op).
  9. MattTarrant

    Hurricane Florence

    An upper tropospheric (250mb) low fed some dry air but also led to shear on the southern side of Florence. This was mentioned in the recent NHC discussion, recent imagery however from the GOES - 16 shows very cold cloud tops now on the southern side. However, early land interaction seems to be limiting this from wrapping around the eyewall, thus intensity probably won't change much despite the high ocean heat content available to Florence .
  10. MattTarrant

    Hurricane Florence

    The UKMO reflects the comments you made about damage to Wilmington, I don't think with modern building codes damage will be quite to the extent you mention, but serious damage nonetheless!
  11. MattTarrant

    Hurricane Florence

    Out of interest, where do you find these?
  12. MattTarrant

    Hurricane Florence

    The Latest ECM confirms this development (at least within the operationals) that landfall is increasingly likely, indeed a major hurricane as well Edit: Beat me to it
  13. MattTarrant

    Hurricane Florence

    NHC (Advisory 29) Key points: . Increase in vertical shear (25 - 30kt estimates) has caused degradation of Florence's structure (Intensity set at 90kt/ Category 2) . Deep convection no longer symmetric (low level circulation visible) . Nuances of environmental shear forecasting causing complications in intensity predictions . Continued weakening over the next 24hrs likely as strong vertical shear continues (Category 2 > Category 1) . Movement has slowed (9kt), with a NW movement . Development of mid - level ridge will steer Florence (Post 24 - 36hrs) increasingly westwards . Florence expected to regain major hurricane status by day 4/5 (Re - Strengthening post 36hrs) . Movement post day 4 uncertain with major model suites diverging on ridge strength (ECMWF & UKMET vs GFS & HWRF)