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MattTarrant

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Swansea, Glamorgan
  • Interests
    Majority of Weather Phenomenon. Sports, specifically Table Tennis.
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds

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  1. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Essentially that is what is forecast, probably like another 4 - 5 hours of decreasing intensity (Probably add about 2- 3 cm). Especially where snow has already settled.
  2. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Literally in like 30 seconds its gone from pure rain to very wet snow.
  3. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    I think any snow for you/southern coastal areas will be when the front begins to push back south later in the afternoon. I can see most seeing some wet snow in the late afternoon/evening with temperatures around 1 - 3. Intensity of precipitation will be decisive.
  4. 62% phone charge Steve.... In all seriousness, the West Coast would look very wintry if it came off as this.
  5. Interesting stuff. From some quick research, it seems that the ECM & GEFS use different manners for creating the perturbations. The GEFS uses something called 'Bred Vector' ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bred_vector).
  6. This is a question for anyone. The alteration of initial data, do the first perturbations have closer initial conditions than say number 20 to the raw operational data? Or does it work in different manner?
  7. It wasn't the control which showed this snow event. It was the 1st member.
  8. The Jet Stream profile is notably different on this run. The 6z run has more energy going into the southern arm, the 12z has more going into northern arm combining with a higher latitude based northern arm jet. The net result is the low pressure traversing a more northerly route in contrast to that of the 6z.
  9. This thread has been somewhat hostile at the moment. This is a 'model output' thread, not a thread to display your weather wishes. I think people really need to consider whether what there posting is of any use (Ie contains some scientific knowledge to it, or more importantly some more open minded analysis).
  10. I agree with the begins of your statement, the length of source is too high for there to be sufficient cold for there to be snow down to low levels. Unless there is a perfect combination of undercutting cold air and adiabatic cooling (Unlikely). With regards to the latter of your points, the front actually clears sufficiently to allow respectable uppers for a North West flow (Though still not enough for snow anyway from areas with reasonable height).
  11. This run doesn't develop the wave feature as much so no sign of any leading edge snow (If any limited to the highest ground in Wales). Sure not to be settled on however for at least another 24hrs.
  12. https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/discussion.asp?DiscussionID=971&DiscussionTitle=Model+Blind+Spots Read this from Metcheck which gives a good insight to the input of data.
  13. As Knocker has recently mentioned frequently in the last day or so, the GFS has constantly been causing cyclogenesis in the later period of its runs. Caution required obviously all round, one positive is the higher resistance to the energy (Low Pressure) upstream which Nick mentioned would be critical to the process the ECM was trying earlier.
  14. No, but the pub run rarely fails to bring a surprise (Normally disappointing).
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