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    Swansea, Glamorgan
  • Interests
    Majority of Weather Phenomenon. Sports, specifically Table Tennis.
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds

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  1. Tropical Depression 10 has formed in the central tropical Atlantic and is forecast to move WNW/NW. Forecasted to be close to the Northern Leeward Islands by Friday as a #hurricane. The average (1981-2010 climatology) date for the 4th Atlantic hurricane is September 21 (@Philip Klotzbach).
  2. Absolutely love the Tiverton Canal, many bike rides along there when younger!
  3. More a phrase than a word no? No on a serious note both the FV3 and Legacy attempt to deconstruct the trough ECM style. Regarding the N Atlantic trough it seems relevant to notice that the ECM 12z was more amplified initially allowing for the newfoundland trough to aid the pattern transition.
  4. Raw ECM data shows 36 at 1:00 PM next Friday...So only imagine the peak temp...
  5. Interest is growing in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days as an unconventional system is forecasted to develop into a cyclone, the National Hurricane Center predicts an 80% chance of formation in the 5 day range. Uncertainty prevails but a tropical storm or weak hurricane is likely to be situated towards the Louisiana/Texas border by Friday/Saturday.
  6. The ECMWF is introducing a substantial upgrade to its Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) today (12z run). This is a notable update and includes several fundamental changes. Key changes include: . Improved continuous data assimilation (Ensemble of Data Assimilation (EDA) Increased from 25 to 50) . Wave model changes (New parametrizations for wind input & deep water dissipation of waves) . 3D aerosol climatology replaces 2D climatology. . Minor updates/improvements to convection & radiation scheme Appreciable improvements include 1 - 5% reduction in upper air and 0.5 - 2% surface parameters errors in the extra tropics.
  7. Two trough features were on the fax charts, so not out question to see an area of organised showers push through. It's interesting to note a subtle difference between the ECM/GFS Vs UKMO regarding 850hpa temps, the former's have them 1/2 lower. However, at best a transient cover at low levels anyway.
  8. Slide 51 comments on stratospheric errors . Q3FY16GFSBriefingNCEPOD.pptx
  9. Not quite as sharp as the ECM 0z but an excellent effort, 8/10.
  10. Your the one that doesn't have a clue. It's not exactly new musings that the reversal (not really the warming) at 60hpa in the stratosphere was gradually pushed backed in time, with modelling being somewhat progressive in that nature. The 1st/2nd is almost guaranteed now as the reversal date. The Met Office, draw conclusions from an accumulation of model data, with even the best insight in the world it is impossible to predict that the models were being progressive. There is also an issue as to the extent of coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, ie the extent of downwelling. The models have been loosely trending to a more -NAM setup with lower u values in the 100 - 300hpa region (see ECM), though there is still considerable uncertainty in this region. Now watch, in conjunction with the stratospheric plots, the extent of anomalous heights across the pole region as to a rough guide to the extent of downwelling.
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