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Paul Sherman

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Posts posted by Paul Sherman


  1. 1 minute ago, beerandkebab said:

    started off as 1 hour rain here on the Marlborough Down nr Swindon and for the last 30 mins has been moderate snow Paul, and surprisingly settling readily as the undercut digs in.....currently 2.1C with a dewpoint of -0.4C for reference

    Thanks buddy, thats the sort of report which is vital to areas further east.

    Enjoy that settling snow, should get a top up on Thursday as well.

    And the growing signs of High Pressure to our North East on the models gathers pace for the 2nd week of February as well.


  2. Dewpoints are nowhere near good enough across the entire South East ranging from 2-3c.................But there are quite a few 0c and 1c Dp's to our North West over the Midlands and its this undercutting cold we need to head from the NW into our region as the precip moves through bringing that evaporative cooling into play.

    It will be interesting to see how quickly it undercuts this evening


  3. 2 minutes ago, Vesuvius said:

    I think where to stick Essex was the problem.  But that’s far wider than weather, I guess.

    in fairness I didn’t know what thread to choose, I mean our neck of the woods is much closer to Kent than Norfolk.

    So, anyway, Crown Hill on Thursday, I’ll beat ya ?

    Haha Crown Hill around 9pm on Thursday could be an evacuation route downhill only, certainly the 5 bus routes wont attempt to get up it if the ICON is correct for Thursday.

    Yh I seem to remember the North part of Essex wanted to be with the East Anglians and the Southern Parts of Essex wanted to be with London and the Home Counties, then we had the problem of where Cambs, Beds and Bucks was put.

    Cant please everyone


  4. 4 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

    Why does this thread cover such a wide geographical area?

    Ah the same question we have had for the past 15 years.

    We tried a 3 counties and a Norfplk/Suffolk Group before but then those regionals went dead and everyone went back in with the SE & East Anglia around 9 years ago so there you have it. If you want to frequent the East Midlands, Lincs threads then by all means be my guest


  5. Still of the same opinion from when I last posted on Friday about this not being a normal system moving into entrenched cold air. Drizzle and rain Tuesday should turn from 10pm onwards to give some snow, not expecting more than 1-3cm and locally 5cm in favoured spots with Altitude. Most of this will compact down for wednesday, expecting a cold night under no winds on wednesday night and could squeak a -4c overnight, then Thursday's system looks to be a sleety,snowy,rainy mess.

    Not even looked at the weekend yet.

    Hope I am wrong with the above but cant foresee too many problems, happy to be corrected though


  6. The thing that worries me about this system was touched upon a few pages back and thats onshore flow as the LP Advances from west to east or whatever track it takes. Usually in Channel Low Set-Ups of the Past and the real ones of ficton like Man With Beard just said about we have entrenched cold over the Uk and a huge Scandi Block to the East, the Dp's are cold enough on the Continent to advect into the Uk from France and the Low Countries to keep it less than marginal. This Set-Up worries me in that respect hugely, as others have said with elevation across the Downs, Chilterns, Salisbury Plain etc it should not be a problem but I can see this being a rain to snow/slush event for low lying areas.


  7. 9 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

    I'm suprised at the level of optimism for this channel low, having lived in London for coming up to 6 years I've never seen them deliver and even prior to that I don't recall them ever really delivering for the far South. Its usually St Albans northwards that gets the goods. Depressingly in the last 6 years I've only seen lying snow once here. 

    I think people are seeing what they want to see rather than the likely reality, having the choice of trekking up north for snow if I want to I know where I'm probably gonna be on Thursday. 

    They often Dont deliver in Essex 🤣


  8. Just now, Winter Hill said:

    Hi Paul.

    to be honest, I think all of the Models have seriously underperformed this winter. For me the UKMet Bowing down to the Icon when it said no to the Easterl was a kick in the proverbials 

    Yep 100% agree with this statement as well.

    Have been some serious mouths wide open moments with the models this winter, ICON did trump em all, and as you say they have all been pretty appalling


  9. 3 minutes ago, offerman said:

    Hi Paul 

    Can you post a link to the UKMO charts for me please. 

     

    Cheers 

    I know what the Stats show for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and ECM this ECM that, Yada Yada

    But the handling of when the weather has started to get "Interesting" around our shores I feel has been handled better by UKMO, remember we would be recovering from a massive Deep Freeze Easterly if the ECM had its way a few weeks back, or been blown towards China if the GFS had that 927mb Low hit the Uk a few weeks back as well


  10. Hi Dan the 26th will NOT be a chase day, thats the day we have to get rid of 2 of the cars back to car rentals and start our journey upto Denver for the start of Tour 3 which kicks off on the 28th May


  11. 10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    So to explain how crazy marginal and difficult this set-up is, especially the further south you go here is an example.

    Two of the ensemble members have what is basically the same set-up on Thursday morning. Both are around 960mbs, both center on W.Ireland and moving ESE. So without high resolution you could not tell the difference.

    And yet one has 3-6 inches widely even in the south, and the other has 0 below B'ham. So why the difference?

    The difference is BOTH have a wave feature on the front ahead of it turning the air southerly for the south. However the first one keeps it as an open wave meaning its not really drawing in any milder air from the south to any great degree...the 2nd just about forms a small tight closed low pressure/ This rotates around the parent low and drags up *slightly* milder air (maybe milder by 1-2c) BUT because it does that it makes the whole thing a rain event in the south, whilst the first solution gives a large amount of snow for all as it moves northwards.

    At this time scale, its impossible to nail down such tiny features that could make the world of difference, and it really does make a world of difference on the ensembles!

    It will definately be the 2nd one knowing our luck 😲😁

    This set up and who is in what camp etc reminds me of a 8 runner Handicap Chase at Haydock

    2 have fallen, 2 are pulled up and 4 are left with 3 Fences to go, the even money shot and the 2/1 and 5/2 are clear from the 4th horse who is 66/1

    At the last the Fav falls brings down the other 2 and the 66/1 shot is the only finisher

    Sounds like the winter to a tee - Haha


  12. 3 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

    Hope you get lucky (storm wise lol) It’s a good spot. I was in a tornado warning once driving north of Calgary. The prairies get some good storms and tornadoes 

    Yh we ventured into Canada once last year in June and scored a Tornado near Estevan and then crossed back into the USA near Portal. They get some stunners in July with Canola Fields as the back drop

    Cant Wait!


  13. Just now, CanadianCoops said:

    Hi Paul

    Ive usually stayed at the Hilton downtown - which is about 20-25 mins from the airport. This comes in a little on high end. But best western downtown is good I hear at more reasonable prices.

    The Nash is a good place to eat on 11th Street. But honestly any pub or restaurant will be good compared to here IMO 

    Thats Brilliant

    Have looked at the Bessie Wessie as one of the possibles so good you mentioned that, and will defo check out Nash as well

    Thanks for the Swift Reply


  14. Whilst we are awaiting some snow and I have you  boys on here, some advice please

    We are having our first Netweather Canadian Chasing this year in July and landing in Calgary on the 14th July

    Can I ask you guys what Hotel would you suggest for us to use as a base, closeish to the Airport. Hopefully you know some nice eateries as well or suggest some close to Calgary as well for our initiation meeting etc

    Thanks in Advance

    Paul

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