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Paul Sherman

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Posts posted by Paul Sherman

  1. Really is interesting the areas North of the Estuary with that wedge of warmer dewpoints and solid rain, the colder undercutting has no doubt gone through with the reports of snow now South of the Thames further East into Kent. 

    Here is hoping Thursday's does not suffer the same fate North of the warmer Estuary. Am surprised about Chelmsford still having rain though as thats fully 14 miles NW of the Estuary

  2. 1 minute ago, staplehurst said:

    It has been mentioned multiple times that this event will largely start as rain, and then gradually transition to sleet/snow from west to east as the cold undercut takes place. So it shouldn't really be much of a surprise if you've got rain at this early stage in the evening? It is all going to the original plan...

    Dan, Mate dont waste your breathe, will message you on Facebook later 

  3. 1 minute ago, beerandkebab said:

    started off as 1 hour rain here on the Marlborough Down nr Swindon and for the last 30 mins has been moderate snow Paul, and surprisingly settling readily as the undercut digs in.....currently 2.1C with a dewpoint of -0.4C for reference

    Thanks buddy, thats the sort of report which is vital to areas further east.

    Enjoy that settling snow, should get a top up on Thursday as well.

    And the growing signs of High Pressure to our North East on the models gathers pace for the 2nd week of February as well.

  4. Dewpoints are nowhere near good enough across the entire South East ranging from 2-3c.................But there are quite a few 0c and 1c Dp's to our North West over the Midlands and its this undercutting cold we need to head from the NW into our region as the precip moves through bringing that evaporative cooling into play.

    It will be interesting to see how quickly it undercuts this evening

  5. 2 minutes ago, Vesuvius said:

    I think where to stick Essex was the problem.  But that’s far wider than weather, I guess.

    in fairness I didn’t know what thread to choose, I mean our neck of the woods is much closer to Kent than Norfolk.

    So, anyway, Crown Hill on Thursday, I’ll beat ya ?

    Haha Crown Hill around 9pm on Thursday could be an evacuation route downhill only, certainly the 5 bus routes wont attempt to get up it if the ICON is correct for Thursday.

    Yh I seem to remember the North part of Essex wanted to be with the East Anglians and the Southern Parts of Essex wanted to be with London and the Home Counties, then we had the problem of where Cambs, Beds and Bucks was put.

    Cant please everyone

  6. 4 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

    Why does this thread cover such a wide geographical area?

    Ah the same question we have had for the past 15 years.

    We tried a 3 counties and a Norfplk/Suffolk Group before but then those regionals went dead and everyone went back in with the SE & East Anglia around 9 years ago so there you have it. If you want to frequent the East Midlands, Lincs threads then by all means be my guest

  7. Still of the same opinion from when I last posted on Friday about this not being a normal system moving into entrenched cold air. Drizzle and rain Tuesday should turn from 10pm onwards to give some snow, not expecting more than 1-3cm and locally 5cm in favoured spots with Altitude. Most of this will compact down for wednesday, expecting a cold night under no winds on wednesday night and could squeak a -4c overnight, then Thursday's system looks to be a sleety,snowy,rainy mess.

    Not even looked at the weekend yet.

    Hope I am wrong with the above but cant foresee too many problems, happy to be corrected though

  8. The thing that worries me about this system was touched upon a few pages back and thats onshore flow as the LP Advances from west to east or whatever track it takes. Usually in Channel Low Set-Ups of the Past and the real ones of ficton like Man With Beard just said about we have entrenched cold over the Uk and a huge Scandi Block to the East, the Dp's are cold enough on the Continent to advect into the Uk from France and the Low Countries to keep it less than marginal. This Set-Up worries me in that respect hugely, as others have said with elevation across the Downs, Chilterns, Salisbury Plain etc it should not be a problem but I can see this being a rain to snow/slush event for low lying areas.

  9. 9 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

    I'm suprised at the level of optimism for this channel low, having lived in London for coming up to 6 years I've never seen them deliver and even prior to that I don't recall them ever really delivering for the far South. Its usually St Albans northwards that gets the goods. Depressingly in the last 6 years I've only seen lying snow once here. 

    I think people are seeing what they want to see rather than the likely reality, having the choice of trekking up north for snow if I want to I know where I'm probably gonna be on Thursday. 

    They often Dont deliver in Essex 🤣

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