Paul Sherman

Yep about right

Clear Skies overhead briefly and wow some temp drop. All the energy get strangled out of that front sinking south and precip decaying now. All eyes to the Estuary for the next 6 hours, will it or wont it

Yh I know what you mean, but would ring true with the sudden turn off just offshore on the showers, usually works this way, maybe there will be a drier slot and then things get rocking and rolling again. Maybe as I took my readings at 9pm there was an ENE Wind and its predominantly NNE. But the signs are good and the clouds are now racing more WSW than SW. One to watch for sure, also North of Chelmsford that seems to be some sort of shrinking energy so is the stuff over us going to relax south over the next few hours to set the stage for some proper showers in the early hours. Snow forecasting and things cropping up and chopping and changing is never easy

9pm Obs Temp is - 2.5c Dewp is - 5.1c Wind is ENE

3cm added here since 6pm so about 1cm per hour atm hope that continues until 6am lol

The false returns near Margate and sometimes north of Whitstable could also be wind farms. The ones in the USA pick up the Dodge City Windfarms and have fooled many a chaser into haring off at 50mph getting onto initiation lol But don't know wether our crappy radars would pick up things like that but Doplar definately does

Strange goings on with the radar When greens are overhead its dry and when there are breaks in the radar it snows lol Something up with it me thinks

Yh proper showers in the NE the type we got on radar on 2009/2010 when we were gutted we were getting yellows at times what we would give for some yellow radar returns now - It's all a bit meh

Exactly the same here zero snow melt under leaden grey skies with bits and pieces of snow. Then skies cleared 30 minutes b4 sunset and Cb Towers were evident to my east. But like you snow pack left same depth now topped up a bit

Well Spotted

Still hammering it down here

Yh brushed the car off at 4pm and its covered again now and cars doing 5mph in the Ungritted roads yet again!!!!

Agree can't see a single station above - 1c East of London?? Surely that 1.2c can't be correct Even Southend AP is - 2c

Yep about a Cm here as well in last 30mins - 2cm per hour would be nice

Some time between 11pm and 3am on some models others later hoping its earlier for you

Current trajectory is between Rochester and Gravesend

On there way to you next then Medway by the looks of the trajectory until the ENE swings them further west

Lining up like buses snowing nicely

Yh tracks in the road again nice to see should be a decent evening and nice to see the gaps between showers as well proper convection here

Had an errand to do out near Wakering today so had a look at how they fared 7 miles east of here and some nice scenes of the North Easterly snow drifts out that way exposed to the harsh winds on Sunday. Much better looking sky here now with an orange sky and sunset to the west and blue skies above with pitch black skies to the east in fact the first shower of snow from the Estuary just started

Atmosphere needs a breather again sorry to bang the Storms drum but quite often when areas in the States get worked over on continuous days the SPC often refer to it as the atmosphere has been beaten up a bit give it a bit of time to dry out and more moisture feeds in later.

So surely there are no posters who say the Amber wasnt warranted now ?? I know not every area in the Amber got what an Amber warning deserved but plenty of places did. When Storm warnings are Issued not every place in those warnings get a Storm for Instance. Some places now well over 20cm and with roads closed and drifting and stories of tractors rescuing people trapped etc. Add into that quite exceptional temperatures for a Maritime Island not rising above -2c then surely the people saying the Amber should not have been Issued can say it certainly was. I think the Met Office have done a great job with the risk zones and the timings of things.

I know we call it the TSS or Thames Snow Streamer but by rights it should be called the DPCZ (Dengie Peninsular Convergence Zone) That unique part of Essex and its shape perpendicular to the Coast sees winds from 3 different heights at 600mb/700mb and the Steering flow converge to create lift against the land (frictional drag effect) and you find showers will always form in the same place (eg SE Of Clacton) and then spread WSW into the London area and SE London and if strong enough parts of Surrey and Hampshire. I am seeing a decent window around 9pm until 3am tomorrow morning and checking on the charts atm Arpege agrees with some decent totals into SE London and NW Kent.

Yh what did us over here in 2009 was the differing wind direction at 700hpa down this end of the Estuary with a NNE Steering wind creating frictional drag into the Estuary (at our end) whereas 20 miles further west the 700mb winds were ENE and also cloud tops rose upto 600mb, plain and simple the showers formed too close to the Estuary shore and not 50-100 miles further out and scuppered the coasts with an Inversion layer. I always look to see where the convergence lines at 700mb to 600mb are setting up in these instances and where the streamlines are concurrent to where the coast and land is. Its crucial in these situations.

Really been coming down here for the last hour, traffic on roads now down to around 10mph, whats it like in Rayleigh or the higher places around here with some hills ? But grass totals topping up nicely now and all paths and roads covered easily now meaning the ground temps are very condusive to settling. Temp is -2.6c Dewp is -4.3c Stunning spell over Easterly weather and the cold is really setting in now. Have not looked in the Model thread but if the cold is getting shoved out of the way does that mean a Snow to Rain event incoming at some point ?