[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

6 minutes ago, SHM040519 said:

@Paul Sherman do you still see Canterbury in the firing line later? Thanks  

Canterbury to Ashford probably 2-4pm for best chances 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Yes places like Whitstable and Herne Bay next in line for some pastings as the convergence line is strengthening on its Eastern edge as it sinks NNE-SSW. Might even get some Thundersnow on the North Kent coast over the next hour or 2

Really drying up now in SE Essex might get the odd flake in the wind but a pleasant afternoon, look east though and its black as night over there

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Look at that conveyer for Mid Kent lucky so and so's

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

3 minutes ago, Chris74 said:

Unbelievable blizzard in Sheerness roads covered again large flakes where the hell did this come from 

I did say about 20 minutes ago it was on a collision course for you. Looks lovely from a sunny Leigh On Sea watching the snow about 5 miles away haha enjoy

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

16 minutes ago, Essex Easterly said:

Looks like we're both in for a good spell of on/off streamer type moderate snowfall for the next few hours Paul! 

Not so confident here, all we will get its the outside edge of the big showers.

As I said earlier 7 or 8 miles east on the tip of the coast around the MOD Land at Shoeburyness and Great Wakering will expereince much better than Leigh On Sea, Southend might even doe well out of this.

The Line through the Isle of Sheppey down towards Medway Towns gunna be stuck under this line for hours, it keeps back building as well, if the wind was ENE we would be laughing now

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Proper convection looking east from here sliding just offshore, Faversham to Maidstone and Sheerness you are in for a very heavy spell of snow in the next 90 minutes

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, Hotspur62 said:

Yep looks bang on the money there(Agonising I miss out by 2-4 miles but you win some lose some-just needed a tiny bit more ENE element)

Interestingly you probably have a better chance than us further North, if you look at the winds near Dover they were recently ENE so as the area of convergence and divergence moves south this afternoon the ENE element might drive the showers further west towards you, almost if you imagine the twig being NE to SW at the moment then the twig is ENE to WSW later on further south and the Meto Fax Charts showed this yesterday afternoon.

So dont give up hope down there yet

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

3 minutes ago, Southender said:

Needs to build on its Western edge or its going to be a near miss perhaps!

Yes agonisingly close

Sheerness to Canterbury and on through to East Sussex

To be fair this was my hit zone that I expect to get the most today. Coast Hugger then onto North Kent and the Central to East North Downs then exiting out into the Channel somewhere just east of Brighton

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Hold together god damn it

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

If those showers up near Felixstowe and Clacton can hold together SE Essex, Medway Towns down to Brighton could be in for a treat. And also areas adjacent to that as well, extending westwards into East London etc

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Halesworth to Southwold about to get another good few Cm's in Suffolk, they really are in the Jackpot zone this spell

Nice shower moving into Southend and Shoebury, this was what I was talking about earlier with local differences of just a few miles

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I have to say this whole spell looks like being a huge disappointment here.

Just before last weekend, I think I recall @Paul Sherman wondering where it would rank in a list of outstanding cold spells over the years.

For this neck of the woods I would say this only comes second to the cold snap we had last month, never mind surpassing other years! 

Yh got to agree with you mate, really underwhelming for most but there are some Jackpot zones just not as many as usual this time. Parts of NE Essex and SE Suffolk have had something similar to 1991 and 1987 whereas 40 miles down the coast it just about breaks into the top 10. 

I would say areas North of Norwich, SE Suffolk and NE Essex have hit the jackpot but thats literally a fraction of the SE Population and thats why most are disgruntled given the set up

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

And .........Its stopped just not enough longevity in these showers ah well

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Ooooh this is a much better shower in Leigh On Sea

Best intensity of this spell lol 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

10 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

You hopeful of sneaking in any more down there today Paul or just out of range? 

Maybe 1cm tops if something initiates close to the Coast before the energy pulls away tonight. 

Canterbury looking to be in the sweet spot and although If I had a straight line to walk from my house to the centre of Canterbury it would only be 28 miles its on an angle for the snow to not affect us. It might be a day where even Great Wakering and Shoeburyness which are 7 miles east of here do much better such local differences make an amazing difference on this wind direction.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, Number 23 said:

Can see what I assume is the bank of cloud bringing today's activity to the east and south of here, clear as a bell behind it. Lovely morning. 

Good luck to those in the firing line today! 

Lol mine is the exact revere of your picture, can see lovely clear blue skies to my North so half the sky is grey and half is clear blue

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Few Showers sneaking closer to the coast here in Essex over the last hour and having a small flurry atm but flakes are a tad polystyrene in nature leaving little balls of snow on ice surfaces. Nice to see the 4th day of snow falling.

Looking east off the Estuary Coast can see the stronger showers about 30 mile further out though with fall streaks so as things clear here later might be some nice cloudscapes drifting along just out of touch. A bit like a reverse of that video yesterday when Kent was clear and we were under the showers.

Hope things go ok Lottiekent 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, Mr Maunder said:

There are signs of the activity in the Thames Estuary starting to liven up. It is also more in the required ENE direction.

Being parochial, hopefully this will result in precipitation reaching further inland in to Kent and East Sussex. Fingers crossed!

MM

Yes looking at the radar if the intensity over the Sea can keep up over Land with the Showers Kent and East Sussex are going to have quite the day of it whilst the rest of us look on in awe

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Morning everyone - Last of the Snowy days for some

7am Obs

Temp is -2.7c

Dewp is -6.4c

Weather is Flurries 

Wind from the North East gusting to NNE

Our temp here is much lower due to the North Easterly element meaning we are not getting any warmth from the Tepid Bath out to our east.

Today I expect an area from Sheerness down through Maidstone and onto Brighton firstly with the Eastern Extent Manston through Canterbury and down to Folkestone to be in the prime spot

As the divergence changes through late morning this Cz relaxes further south and brings more better chances for places in East and West Sussex and into the Channel.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

QE2SS

Quite the streamer setting up its source somewhere in the Thames near the QE2 bridge

All very strange this cold spell wondering though is there any converging winds in that part of SW Essex and NW Kent kicking this off 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

8 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Are these charts publicly available anywhere? I've been looking for them on and off the past couple of days and can't find them.

No not publicly available, I have a few friends who work for various met agencies that send me snippets as long as I dont share them on open forums, thems the rules and If I flouted them they wouldnt give them to me again lol

I think you might be able to pay for them somewhere though although have not looked into that myself, I just leach of a few friends haha

Maybe I should have worded it better to Woburn when I said you need to look at the 600/700mb winds he/she probably cant so unfair of me to say that

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, SHM040519 said:

Hi Paul, thanks for the fab posts, do you see canterbury in the line for the streamer should it materialise? Thanks !

Yes from Midday tomorrow until 6pm so a nice 6 hour window to finish this spell off.

For the SE I hope the models change a bit or this could go out with a whimper and the undercutting cold dry south easterly drying out any frontal system with the battleground further North and West with temperatures just creeping up slowly to settle around 4-6c by start of next week. A bit like a wasted hot summer spell of weather, you want it broken down by a Spanish Plume but then the 30c heat gets swept away by a break down from the NW with temps in the high teens and no fireworks

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Have just had a little peruse of some charts more importantly the ones which could create cz (convergence zone) showers and must admit not seeing much really until tomorrow morning for the Thames Estuary around 9am and then this convergence zone heads south and changes shape a little bit affecting a more NNE-SSW Zone through Kent and Sussex.

There looks to be small showers throughout tonight but these will struggle to amount to much, there might be the odd one that might surprise us though so not ruling anything out.

High Pressure settles in on Thursday so Wednesday night into Thursday morning could see -8c to -12c temperatures across any snowfields, then a really cold South East wind takes us into the weekend. Hopefully drying things out, should be some amazingly low dewpoints by then as well, probably see some -12c to -15c dewpoints but little sign of Snow for Friday, Saturday and Sunday for the SE at this stage.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

16 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Radar has ppn fading by the hour across EA and SE. 
 

looks to be a cold, clear night 

You need to look at the 600mb and 700mb Isotachs that might give you a clue a to where things might take shape. Where these winds converge will be clear to where the Twig as people call them takes shape. And anywhere over the warm SST's will create shower clouds at 10,000ft.

Certainly will not be clear here tonight but might be where your located as your a good 50-60 miles from where the convergence zone might set up.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1715 Obs

Temp is -0.5c

Dewp is -5.1c

Wind is from the ENE

Weather is Cloudy with breaks to the East and Kent visible to the South