[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

Looks very similar to a few weeks back when Lightning will be more prevalent as time goes by on the eastern end of the storms moving north out of France. Expect bright echoes firstly from IOW westwards from 18z to 23z this as Dan says merging into Thundery rain as it makes its way North but regeneration further east as storms push northwards all the way to East Sussex / Kent coast looks likely.

I will be out and about waiting for the early hours show and will not get tempted by a drive towards Hampshire or Dorset, gunna be a long night but hopefully 1 thats worth it in the end if the expected High Based elevated lightning occurs off the coast.

If any others are out good luck and I have my spot in mind already.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

Ironically I work in Romford Monday to Fridays and left for home to Leigh On Sea at 5pm today (2 miles from the Tornado) I did notice some massive TCU building just south of NE London probably over the Thames around 530pm. One thing that did happen today was convective temps reached 23c at one point whereas Brick and Nick and Dan said 20c was needed for deeper convection to occur so that threshold was met easily.

I believe this was a weak Supercell that did indeed split near Brentwood and right moved. Interestingly where the Tornado occured had no rainfall as most of the precip was sheared away in the FFD to the North of the Tornado site again promoting a proper Supercell storm with updraught downdraught seperation and rotation pretty much from the get go. It was severe in 5 scans (25mins) and hail was reported in the North quadrant of the storm. 

So picturing this storm in my head and knowing the area very well the Tornado would have occured under the RFB (Rain Free Base) in the South West part of the storm and VERY Early in the Storms life cycle.

There was also an earlier right mover near Burnham on Crouch around 4pm which again produced a Funnel 3/4 of the way to the ground, conditions today were clearly condusive to rotating storms. Spreads were good as well with 72/59 widely across the SE and Easterly surface inflow winds.

More of this please this summer but hopefully out in the countryside and not built up areas

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

Moving onto the 1990's and June Thunderstorms have lifted the following from my book, hopefully some of you remember some of these years and can put your own stories to them.

1993

Mostly fine and dry, but there were some very violent thunderstorms and heavy rain midmonth (9-16th). A thunderstorm gave 125 mm of rain at Culdrose (Cornwall); 92 mm in two hours early on the 9th. Flooding in Helston. Hailstone damage to glass In Northants. 175mm on the 10th at Llandudno, 140mm of it in 4 hours; flooding over the area and in Conwy. 121 mm in 2.5 hours at North Weald, with much flooding. 92mm in three hours at Epping. There was more very heavy rain over Wales and the southwest on the 11th and 12th

1994

Violent thunderstorms on the 24th over the southeast as a cold front moved east. Lightning damage and death. 27mm of rain in 11 minutes at Wokingham; large hailstones; winds of 47mph, and a gust of 62mph at Herstmonceux (E. Sussex). The storm activity was preceded by rapid development of altocumulus castellanus on the night of the 23-24th.

1996

A plume of hot air up from Spain gave a very hot first week - the earliest such hot spell since 1976. Temperatures were hot on the 5th and 6th; Atlantic fronts brought more cloud to parts on the 7th, although the SE remained sunny. 33.1C at St. James's Park, Westminster, London, on the 7th; a temperature this high so early in the year only happens a few times this century. As a cold front moved south in the evening on the 7th there were violent thunderstorms, particularly from Dorset through the East Midlands into East Anglia. There were 8 damaging hail swaths. 30mm hail, a tornado in Basingstoke and Sherborne, 73.9 mm of rain at Wantage, 30 mm widespread, squally winds, golfball-sized hail, lightning strikes causing power loss, and perhaps best of all, ball lightning in a factory in Tewkesbury, where it exploded with an orange flash.

1998

There was a severe thunderstorm in Reading in the afternoon of the 13th, accompanied by a damaging tornado.

1999

Violent thunderstorms, with notable lightning displays, over much of the country on the night of the 26-27th.

Will put up the 2000's over the weekend

 

[Noctilucent Cloud season 2021]

Stunners tonight in the South East. Finally clear skies in what seems like weeks of endless low clouds

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

To Give you an idea just how pathetic our little Island has become I have lifted some artifacts from a book I have detailing June Thunderstorms over the decades. 

1980

There was a major outbreak of thunderstorms in the north and west on the 5th. Deaths by lightning; tornado at Nairn wrecked a caravan site. 67mm of rain in two hours caused flooding at Darwen (Lancs.). More storms on the 14th: 24 mm of rain in 10 minutes at Sudbury. Widespread storms every afternoon from the 22nd-26th. On the 25th hail lay to a depth of 25cm in Sevenoaks

1982

Much of the rain came from thunderstorms. King's Lynn had 13 thunder days that month. Some notable thunderstorms at the start of the month, which began hot and humid. Thuderstorms on the afternoon of the first led to flooding arounf Huddersfield. There was 90 mm of rain in two hours at Wooton Bassett (Wilts) on the 2nd. 92 mm of rain at Cheshunt (Herts.) and 61mm at Enfield on the 4th. Cheshunt then had a further 35mm of rain on the 5th (that meant twice the normal monthly rainfall in two days). Thunderstorms were widespread on the 4-6th, with lightning deaths. 39 mm of rain in 25 minutes at Stoke-by-Clare (Suffolk) on the 6th; 96 mm at Skipton (North Yorks.) on the 6th. At the same time, 30C was reached at Tummel Bridge on the 5th. There was a notable hailstorm in Bristol on the 18th. Two days of rain over northern England on the 21-22nd, with low daytime temperatures of only 10 degrees. The area around the Humber had 100 mm of rain in 75 hours in that spell. Heavy downpour in Epping Forest on the 25th causing muddy flooding. On the 26th a severe storm in north London led to the death of three children by drowning in a swollen stream at Hendon. 36mm at Stanmore, most of it in half an hour. A severe hailstorm at Ludlow (Shrops.) on the 26th resulted in foot-deep hail drifts.

1983

Some notable thunderstorms. As hot air from the south met cool air from the northeast, there were some severe thunderstorms on the 5th over the south coast, with hail reported up to 75 mm, although most were around 30mm. There was a small tornado near Brighton, leading to a crabfall. The storm clouds were reported as an eery green colour. Coal picked up by a small tornado fell on Poole during a storm. The cold front associated with the depression led to more thunder and hailstorms on the 7th, particularly over Wales and the west: hailstones 75 mm in diameter were reported in a storm in Manchester, with spectacular lightning. Much damage. There were some unsettled westerlies in second week. It was then warm and settled before more severe thunderstorms on 23rd, with103 mm of rain near Alresford (Hants.).

1984-1987

Thundery hot and humid weather most of these Junes with Plume events impacting the United Kingdom

1988 & 1989

These 2 years saw little in the way of June Thunderstorms but a Heavy Hailstorm near Chatham on the 6th June 1989 the highlight on a very thundery day for the Uk.

 

I can put the 1990's and 2000's in as well if people want and also have all the events from Julys and Augusts if anyone is interested

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

Explosion of elevated convection over the south east in the last 20 mins but looks very shallow at present

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

Yh this is a grim day. The heat and humidity is about 100 miles to our east now and we are on the cold side of the warm front (eg any Storms will be elevated) some day in store for NW Germany Holland and parts of Belgium though with a set up more akin to the Plains. Any storm there that rides the warm front could produce a strong Tornado today. 

Tomorrow night looking meh atm as well hoping that might change for the better though not holding out much hope 

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

31 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Managed to catch a storm near to Faversham but was unable to get out as was on the motorway. Some incredible CG's and loud thunder in it though along with torrential rain. 

Now sat near to Whitstable and it's all quiet. I wonder if it's worth hanging around for round 2 (if it is happening at all).

Storms south of Brighton will track toward you dont think this is over yet, the transport of High Theta from the East is still enhancing potential. Its like a sauna out there still

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Hirudine said:

Oh, I don't know, I quite like the otherwordly aura it gives it. It might not be naturalistic, but it is artistic.

Thanks mate, was not expecting a Cg to jump out about 3 miles in front of the others, also shot it in Jpeg whereas if I was on Raw could have recovered it. Just nice to see a storm again tbh

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

Absolutely bummed about this picture. Tried to recover it but there was a Cg to the left of this picture which landed about 200 yards in front of me and screwed my F-Stop up and totally took me by surprise.

Rustiness!!

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

Some off the back of the Camera not edited yet. Great Storm Finally amazing Cgs

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

Very Powerful Atmosphere being transported on brisk warm south easterlies over Kent and Essex - You wont often find an 81/66 in the Uk that often but that is what we have in Kent and Southern Essex at the moment.

That sort of atmosphere will go bang

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Here we go! The sky is filling with Floccus and mid-level towers already! Just what I like to see

Really decent cumulus field here in Essex this afternoon must admit was not expecting that at all

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

Tell you what it certainly feels good here today and more akin to what we have stateside on a Storm day. 

Strong Warm Southerly wind and T/Td spreads that would suggest fireworks tonight. 

82/61 at present which is pretty spectacular for the UK and would expect some readings this evening as cloud rolls on and humidity rises further to be around 79/64 even by that stage. 

I call that Fuel or Storm Food

Also first signs of destabilisation with high level Cirrus appearing here now. 

[Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Harry said:

MetO have extended thunderstorm warnings to Saturday now

Expect that to be extended further until 09am Sunday from the looks of some of the Models Harry.

A very Thundery 4 day spell coming up for some lucky people

Eyes down for the 00z 

[Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards]

Looking at the 18z Models I would imagine the risk area might be further west than what is showing from this mornings suites. 

ICON is From the South Coast from West Sussex to Hampshire then right through the Midlands exiting the North Sea around the Humber

UKV has it from the same starting point as above then pivoting North West through the Midlands and NW England

Arome is also further west.

Arpege also through the Midlands from the South Coast.

In  fact areas further east on these 18z Suites could miss out completely, might even make it to 34 months with no Night time Lightning

More chances Into Friday Morning and again into Sunday morning on some of the Models.

Will be interesting to see the 00z Suites and Ensembles but sweet spot at this time looks to be Isle of Wight to Brighton landfall moving through the London area along to Bristol and then following the M1 northwards.

[Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards]

We need another 24 hours with this in my opinion but here are some early thoughts.

7-9pm (16th June) Would expect Lightning to start being seen from the Dorset Coast eastwards to West Sussex always more active over the Sea, Inland areas of Hampshire and the M4 Corridoor looks likely to see Thundery Rain with better chances of Cgs with Eastward Extent

9pm to Midnight (16th June) Would expect to see areas like East Sussex, Kent, Surrey and Greater London to start getting in on the Action and again Lightning stronger on the eastward side of the Plume.

00-05z (17th June) Areas North of London, Essex, and East Anglia should then join in the action and once again the stronger more active lightning will be on the Eastern Side of the advancing MCS

One thing in our favour will be the initiation of Storms in and around the Uk Coast as the Plume destabilises and any Surface based storms over Northern France wednesday evening will aid the plume with their outflow for Initiation.

Some really decent Dewpoints associated with this event with 15-18c in the far east so before the storms arrive/initiate late wednesday afternoon and evening are going to be very uncomfortable with spreads in the south east generally of 80/64 which is bordering on the Oppresive category and you can see those (PWAT) Values are so high with regards to this airmass.

Plenty of time to change and nothing set in stone until the event starts.

[Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards]

Been saying this for the last 5-10 years, something fundamental has changed with the UK Storm Distribution with the rise in temperatures since the 2010 to 2021 Period. The SE is now almost barren for Thunderstorms as its nearly always too hot and the atmosphere capped, the North, North East, North West and Midlands are now the places to be for Thunderstorms and Supercells in the Uk. As the other poster said earlier Orographic forcing coming into play makes it like the USA equivalent of the High Plains. Lincolnshire will always do well still being east of the Midlands storms which have a longer land track.

You can pretty much draw a line from Norwich through just south of Cambridge then down through Reading and down to Dorset to find the Hot dry weather in Summer with little to no storms to count, only usually the odd flash or rumble when more of a westerly componant comes into the steering level.

Plumes dont cut it anymore and we are reliant on MUCape days when Storms form from a Trough near to the South Coast of the Uk and work off Mid Level Cape to survive the Channel.

Whats the betting with temps progged at between 28-32c over the weekend and into next week that the breakdown comes from the North West with forcing setting off storms from the Midlands Northwards.

It has now been 33 months since I have seen Lightning at night in the Uk, something I would have laughed at years ago and said simply not possible.

Sad Times Indeed, but best of luck all you guys up north when your proper season kicks off end of June through end of August.

[Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards]

23 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Tomorrow actually looking rather interesting in the evening hours. East Midlands and E Anglia especially, with some models showing what looks like elevated storms kicking off overnight, preceded by some afternoon ones which could be surfaced based. 

Euro4, Arome and WRF all in pretty solid agreement at around 18:00 

Also looks to be a bit of wind shear, and very light converging winds at the surface for many areas. Not looking too bad. Not sure what the DP’s are forecast to be. We’ll see what the experts here have to say in due course. 

To my untrained eye you are in a brilliant position for something much better Monday afternoon and Evening. All Models showing something a lot better than 20-30 minute Pulse type storms that we will probably be plagued with today.

Best Areas Monday look to be East Anglia / Wash / Cambs / Linc / E Yorks

Timing looks to be from 1400 to 2000

 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

7 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Here's the longer-term trends in UK summers and winters, the dashed-black line is the running 30-year average

Would not have liked to be around for the summers in the 1960's wow jut yuck

Interesting thing on those graphs is the Severe Winters and Hot Summers in the 1947 and 1995 Summers and Winters as well. 

Can clearly see why the Climate Brigade got their drums out as well in the early 1990' looking at the Summer Graphs. Not many below average summers since then.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Happy Valentines Day Sunrise Lovebirds

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Just now, Polaris said:

06:25 in the morning 

-8c by day and -17c at night. Proper cold, can’t wait 

Enjoy

Different kind of cold though thankfully in a Continental Climate, if that was surrounded by water you would certainly feel that.

Couple of Storm Chaser Friends in Saskatchewan have just endured -31c with -55c windchills these last few days, proper cold 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

21 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Started to snow here. Albeit very lightly 

Thought you were going to Montreal today for work ? 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

14z Obs 

Temp -1c

Dewp -11c

Now that is impressive, I know loads are dissing this cold spell but it takes something to get those sort of temp/dp spreads in this country.

 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Impressive 10am Obs here

Temp is - 3.7c

Dewp is - 8.2c

Well done to BBC once again showing by 10am it should be 1c here what a joke they are