[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Yh zero precip has fallen we really might get away with a dry day. Good for the ground drying out though as only 10mm in the last week here 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Actually am quite proud of 35 months of snow less heaven here and  confident we can make it to 48 months by next Feb

Current view

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Hurricane Squad said:

@Paul Shermanno lying here so far what do you think about later on? When do you think People near me could expect a lying if at all? 

Maybe from 4pm onwards if it stalls and has anything left in it as it sinks away SE

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Alarming temp rise from 10am to 11am from 0c to 3c 

Harmonie and Arpege nailed this with ECM and GFS woeful as expected. The former 2 even had the fragmentation and pivot spot on whereas the latter had the occlusion going through to east Kent. 

Once again we know who to trust going forward and ECM now 0 from 9 IMBY

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Southender said:

Can we squeeze a dry day out of it I wonder

Haha would not surprise me at all

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Breaking up and fragmenting towards the South and East of the band, Pivot and stall stretching the band more to the S-N now, expect eastern extent is almost reached with fragmentation. Gotta hope most of it gets north of the Capital before it slides away south and east later.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Yes quite alarming rise in Temps now so agree with the 2nd shot this evening when it all falls away SE, although as the Occlusion and Vorticity wanes then it breaks up to snizzle by that stage anway

7am Temp was -3.3c

8am Temp was -2.8c

9am Temp was -2.1c

10am Temp was -0.3c

Rapidly rising now

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, hurricane-anna said:

I dont think peterborough has ever been so so unlucky, snow has been north south east and west so far this winter, a few days ago a very good band came right above us, turned to rain a few miles west, then after it passed turned back to snow.. icon has us in a very good area for today but tbh I cant see it happening.. really am hoping something makes it here but chances are slim, for whoever's gets lucky today get some pics for us and totally enjoy it, us all in this area deserve it (blow some this way if possible please thou haha) xx

Lol try SE Essex

Most snowless place in the SE currently apart from a graupel shower yesterday for 2 minutes 20 seconds

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Looks to me the stall and pivot is occuring now right over SW London and areas along the M4 West of London. Looks that way to me on radar anyway.

Sweet spot still looks to be the M40 somewhere along the Chilterns

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, StLuke said:

Not liking the rapid increase in temperature here in South Essex, granted I am right on the estuary. Might be the wrap around later that delivers the goods when the wind turns to the north for us.

Yh Dan just posted on Twitter saying pretty much that, rain and slops for most of the day for SE Essex and hopefully we can get the band further north that then drops south east later turning the wind northerly and giving us a covering at least.

Enjoy further west guys, Sliders probably deliver about a 1 in 10 scenario for here over the course of history and those are only when deep entrenched cold has been over the area for weeks before.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Wind just switched to SE’ly though....up we go

As long as its SEasterly we should be fine as its only about 1 mile across to the North Kent Coast, am pretty sure modification isnt going to scupper unless your on the very end of the Estuary past Foulness with longer stretch of water, If it goes ESE then we are Screwed

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8AM Obs

Temp : -2.7c

Dewp : -3.2c

Bloody freezing still even with 100% cloud now

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Wow what a Sunrise always get these here when a front is approaching from the west 

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Southern end of the M40 near the Chilterns for me to be the sweet spot

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Defo need an Amber for this - We survived winter 20/21

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Hammer said:

Looking north and missed by a few miles. And fully expect to be cursing tomorrow looking south.

I feel your pain and will be in the same boat.

If we can get to Spring and go 36 months without settling snow am sure we can get up towards 45 months with ease.

When the Meto said snow would be rare I didnt think they had started the clock already lol

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Yep went Norway in March 2019 and they tend to measure in feet and if the snow goes above your property - Hahaha

They would laugh at this thread

 

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Yeah Meto warnings broadly the same just added a bit in for when the system pulls away as a sleety mess and skies clearing overnight leading to an ice fest 

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1 minute ago, SHM040519 said:

Warning cancelled by Met!

New one coming out changing shape probably

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ICON the first out of the traps for the 06z models and the precip does a perfect pirouette around London

West And South of London get a hammering on this run

South Essex 0cm

Kent 2-5cm

Surrey 5-10cm

Berks 5-12cm

C London 1-3cm

These totals just based on this run though

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Well as others have said if it gets down to -5c tonight I am defo going out for some early morning pictures before the frost melts away, could be some rime chances if any freezing fog forms overnight

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Just now, SHM040519 said:

So I’m guessing east Kent where I am...canterbury may not see much? 

If your talking screw zone this winter where places have hardly even seen a flake of snow falling and run the risk of not seeing any this side of February the following areas have been the unfortunate ones

South Essex, Kent, Coastal Suffolk, Parts of London.

Am just hoping those Cheshire Gap showers have at least a few snowflakes in daylight hours that some in the starved areas can see fall to the ground

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Just now, paget said:

Sounding good for us (Farnham. Surrey) I still won’t get my hopes up too high!!

You look best placed for sure as it stands atm, lets see what the 06z and 12z models bring and hope it continues to show this, and nice that its occuring on a sunday as well.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Models starting to come into better agreement from overnight runs for parts of the SE and think the Met Office's map from Thursday for Sundays risk is spot on. The Pivot looks to happen about 50 miles west of London along the M4 Corridoor. I have a horrible feeling some places like my location could run the risk of not seeing any snow from this along with the North Kent and Essex and Suffolk Coasts and ECM could indeed by that stage be 9 from 9 with failed snow precip guidence which tells you all you need to know about that model going forward. Obviously we dont know where the Pivot is going to occur yet but 75% of the better models all seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet as it stands. 

Saturday : Hit and Miss Wintry Showers of Rain, Sleet, Graupel and Snow not really worth bothering about unless you luck out and get a heavier one for 45 minutes which gives a centimetre or 2.

Sunday : Areas to the West and South West of London could hit the jackpot with 3-7cm of Snow with places like the Surrey Hills and Southern Most part of the Chilterns 10-15cm in luckier spots with any heavier precip areas. Jackpot zones looks to be Surrey, Hampshire (Not Coastal) West Sussex (Not Coastal) Berks

If I was having a sunday stroll the Surrey Hills, Southern Chilterns or the western Part of the South Downs would be good for some sledging.

Have fun those in the western parts of the SE

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Who remembers this one then - Cant remember the year though