Paul Sherman
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Posts posted by Paul Sherman
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Thanks Mick, I really enjoyed putting that together even though it hurts soooo much and on Monday and Tuesday this week we had a few minutes silence to remember the event - Hahahaha
Btw that Meto chart Froze posted above is telling for the Thames Estuary as wel with us having upwards of 200% per cent of our average Jan Rainfall. In fact amazingly my weather station is on 204mm as of today and its still raining meaning we have had 1/3rd of our annual 610mm average for SE Essex.
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3 minutes ago, Stu_London said:
Could be a bit more Paul - the beeb are dragging the continuous band of heavy snow, further and further south with each run - yesterday it was EA and Midlands and today it covers most of our region.
Yep am going a bit conservative until the High Res models come into view and start to show any streamer events that could set up with favourable wind vectors. Could be a lot more on offer if things are favourable
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1 minute ago, Ian Docwra said:
My "1cm drifts" comment was jocular in response to the "0.2cm" level depth. Who knows, the North Downs could see 10cm+ but everything is speculation even up to the figurative last minute.
Aha that makes sense then, yes 0.2cm could easily turn into 1cm up against an east facing fence
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Just now, MAF said:
corrected it for you Paul
Gotta quote their totals Mick lol but yes we will be on a totally new thread by then
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I think they are a bit underwhelming predictions to be honest and would expect most of the region to get between 2-3 Inches or 6-8cm of Snow by Monday with lucky spots seeing 6 Inches or 10-15cm
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So just to put this down and come back to it first part of next week Neil in North Kent is predicting 0.2cm and Ian in Surrey is predicting 1cm.
Will come back to Page 32 next week to see how close your predictions are thanks for those guys
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40 minutes ago, Vesuvius said:
That’s my hobby on days it doesn’t snow. I’ve only missed three days in the last 6 years.
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Yes would be nice for all areas to get a big dumping to end the winter on a positive note
Like Darren I believe there is a lot of scope for that warning to get bumped up the Matrix to an Amber probably around 1030am on Saturday morning when confidence is more apparant and the more Hi Res Models are taken into account.
Could be an epic walk on Sunday though
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2 minutes ago, Southender said:How you feeling Paul? Think we may actually have a chance in our neck of the woods....the pond looks cooler, dew points look favourable, uppers good, winds good...
Gunna say it - NAILED ON!
If this fails I am deactivating my account and moving onto another hobby maybe Train Spotting at Rayleigh Station
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One thing to note that is not being reported on the MAD Thread is the strength of the Wind on the Norfolk and Suffolk coasts with 50mph winds this with any snow showers will create blizzard condition which in itself is rare in the Uk. Some small communities could become very much in trouble with any drifting.
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3 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:
Surely the metoffice will extend there warnings into the south east for this Sunday
Yh pretty sure they will update them around 1015am and extend them south and west
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Thick Fog all night and does not look like shifting in the Estuary anytime soon, as the wind picks up this morning and some showers arrive that should dissipate it though.
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Just now, lawrenk said:
Great to have you back Paul!
Mind you, it’s only when you decided to take a break that the models suddenly started looking good again so, don’t take this personally, but do you mind bu**ering off again if they take another turn for the worse!
Biting my nails now eagerly awaiting GooFuS offering on the 18z Eeeeeeek
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Just now, Speedbird said:
if we don't get something out of this i'm finding a new hobby !!
Yep agree with that 100%
35 long months must surely be under fire now lol
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2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:
How quickly can cold nights freeze the warmer soil temps? With snow cover? I really don’t know because the insulating effect of snowcover can work both ways.
A very good question Ed
One thing is for sure the night time temps being progged could get down to double digit minuses in places over snowcover so frigid cold. Add in the strength of the wind which could make a +1c temp feel like -10c early next week
Looking forward to it
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Evening Chaps and Chapessess
Have had a nice 10 day break but will be around for the latter part of the weekend onwards to enjoy the radar watching and to report on any streamers that set up.
Have been watching Scandi cool off these past 2 weeks and my posts from Mid Jan did say to watch the area to our North East admittedly I thought the last few days of January but 1 week off wasnt bad in the end.
A couple of things still worrying me about longevity of the spell, firstly on other notable spells we usually have a good week of ground frosts and freezing fog to freeze up the surface but this time it looks like snow will fall onto muddy and wet soil which could make the snowpack struggle to stay around as long as it should so my advice is if the models continue with the southwards shift with Saturday into sundays risk is to go out and enjoy it sunday afternoon as there are a couple of models showing a milder wedge that could turn it marginal from Sunday night into Monday night. But the good news is it looks like a renewed push of better uppers comes in from Tuesday into Thursday for round 2.
There will in the end be a pest from the west trying to break the stubborn block down and that could again be fun and games but that is way too far ahead to worry about at this time.
Will be great to count this down as we now have absolute model agreement on the coldest spell of the winter ahead
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Probably got about 6 weeks left until what I call the cut off point for the SE around the 15th March before we start to see it very hard for sustained cold and snow to keep itself on the ground much more than a few hours before melting away in strong sunshine and with the next few weeks probably in the bin already a quick sum up of this winter for SE Essex and probably most of Kent and Coastal Sussex, Suffolk and Norfolk.
8 Ground or Air Frost
1 Graupel Shower for 5 minutes
Winter 19/20 and Winter 18/19 had hardly any frosts and no wintry precipitation as well so am quite confident now we will be staring 46 months of no snow cover in the face by the time Dec 2021 comes around and I can see why the Met Office are stating that snowy winters will become a rarity in the future but I would bring their timescales much further forward than 2040 looking at how things are rapidly changing for parts of the Uk.
So happy some got deep enough snow to enjoy it yesterday and for it to still be on the ground today though as these will become ever rarer in years to come. Maybe time to move to a much more favourable country if its snow you are after in the coming decades.
Models yesterday also as others have stated were hopeless with the Stall Line some 100 miles further North than most stated, remember some as late as Friday had this system in the Channel, most had the stall line around the London area, none had the stall line across Rutland into the Midlands.
Going to take a break from Model watching for the next few weeks and have enjoyed the banter on here again this year, will pop back in as the Spring and Summer warmth ramps up the convection and once the first Spanish Plume is forecasted am sure all the usual suspects will be on here then watching the Lightning maps in the Bay of Biscay.
Stay safe all and lets hope we all get let out soon
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And to add to the original Question was it meant to snow for you the following
My Thoughts : 0%
ECM 150%
gfs 100%
Harmonie 0%
Arpege 15%
So I pretty much knew it was game over when the 2 crappest models suggested 6 hours of snow
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2 minutes ago, Ols500 said:
Was it forecast to snow for you?
No but dont get the point of your post ? I am merely commenting on the relentless crud weather this January we are having, one of the worst winters ever in fact.
If you look back my hotspots both got Hammered in Surrey and the Chilterns, I am not that unsavvy to know that any east source to the wind IMBY will not yield snow.
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Yep it is thouroughly abysmal out there with a misty drizzle and a nagging east wind just wish it would do one into the low countries so we can get a nice frost and clear skies.
Temp 2.4c
Dewp 1.3c
Cannot wait for that first warm spring day and convective skies way off in the distance to my North or South but at least can sit in the garden and not put up with this disgusting weather
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To add salt to the wounds for places that missed today the snow band on some early 12z models expected to slip more North to South away weakening meaning mostly London and C Southern England to get the scraps probably missing Essex Kent and Sussex. Non Winter 20/21 please end now.
One thing we do get here though is beautiful Storm less summers...... Oh wait
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5 minutes ago, Snowman. said:
Feb 2012 was a decent one. It was breakdown but we got about 20cm or so out of that.
Ooh will look into that one must have slipped me mind but as a rule sliders are awful for Kent Essex and Sussex
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13 minutes ago, Vesuvius said:
Just rain for me in Rayleigh as the snow drought continues. I’m always suspicious of these type of snow events as I don’t recall many landing for my area. It’s why I always look East although even that doesn’t work now as its “not the right easterly”.
Roll on Spring. At least it might stop this relentless cold rain
pleased to see many in this region have had a decent event. Enjoy folks and keep posting the pictures
Time for some wine and football
Think it's about a 1:8 ratio certainly only been 4 since 1990 I cam recall and when you think the hits are March 2018 Dec 2010 Feb 2009 and Feb 1991 you can see those events had major cold entrenched b4 hand so no surprise this fell in the damp squib category
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16 minutes ago, john mac1 said:
Rapid melt already!
Same here now its raining it is rapidly melting the 0.0cm we got
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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
in Regional
Posted
Having heard Thundersnow 4 times in my life I can tell you the 1987 spell contained the most with if I remember correctly 5 seperate showers containing claps of thunder. 1991 contained 2 and the December 2010 event containing 2 events on the 2nd and 17th december. The February 2009 spell never contained any thundersnow here.