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Everything posted by Paul Sherman
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No not really, when things are off by a full 5c on the dewpoint at any given timestamp (eg it was supposed to be -3c on the dewpoint at 4am) on 6 of the 8 models i looked at you know something has gone badly wrong at the beginning of the modelling. Look at it this way, If I was chasing tornadoes and the temp was supposed to be 80f and the Dewpoint around 72f and in effect the dewpoint was 66f I would not expect to see tornadoes and only High Based Thunderstorms due to the high temp/dp spread and quickly tell my eager customers that some pretty clouds would be in the offing and not low lcl ground scraping tornadoes. Something looks to have gone wrong with the modelling of Darcy or it gone awry somewhere over in the low countries We shall see if trends improve in the next few hours but not holding my breathe, not writing off the whole spell but this first bite (frontal) is looking dodgy now
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Darren Slightly concerning that all locations up and down the east coast have positive dewpoints even in the North East ? I dont like the look of this one bit Could be a huge round of applause to Ian from last night coming here as he might have spotted the alarm bells ringing very early with how Darcy was acting around 10pm last night
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Deary Deary Deary me This could go down as the Biggest Bust of them all Absolutely shocking modelling from every single Model, when your expected Temperature at 4am is 5c too high and your dewpoint is 7c too high something tells you something has badly gone wrong Think I said I would retire and leave the weather forums if this failed well looks like I might be on me way out This will go down in History though bigger than THAT ECM
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No way Hose not that brave when breakdowns are being looked at Btw Nice Radar on Sat24 from the NL Radar on there, shows the westwards movement and shearing off the coast of Denmark, run the annimation, looks further north than modelled but all on track for a 4am hit Infrared satellite images of Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Clouds in Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg at night and in the evening. Weather Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Satellite Weather Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Rain in Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg - SAT24.com EN.SAT24.COM Infrared satellite images of Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Clouds in Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg at night and in the evening. Weather Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Satellite Weather...