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Paul Sherman

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Posts posted by Paul Sherman


  1. Great Start to Tour 4 with 4 Kansas Tornadoes on a Slight Risk 2% Day

    The Goodland Supercell was an absolute beast sitting on the boundary most of the day

     

    1560057140132.jpg


  2. Hi Pete

    I will be arriving at the Days Inn with Tour 3 around 12 noon on Saturday so if you guys want to make your way over to the Days Inn some of the staff will already be there defo Graham Moore who arrives Friday 


  3. Yh could have been mass casualties Nick

    Re the misting up of the windows yes we came across this after leaving the Mangum Storm it quickly became undercut by the front and the look went from tornadic to outflow, we headed south towards Altus and went from 57f to 83f in the matter of 3 miles and the windows were instantly fogged up, one of the best I have seen in fact


  4. 1 Tornado for the team should have been 2 really but never connected to the Paducah storm until it rolled east of Childress due to the river crossing at Quanah. Then the fun began with the chasers yokels, yahoos, every single person in Oklahoma it seemed with some appalling driving going on and not just from chasers from the scientific people around those storms from the DOWS to Texas Tech University.

    That will be the last HIGH Risk I will chase in Oklahoma ever again and on other days we will go for the secondary target and leave the mess in Okie

    We did get the Mangum Tornado but really should have been next to it in a field and not 6 miles south of it.


  5. Have sent friend Requests to Camilla, Andrew and Vicky and as soon as they are approved will add you into the Tour 3 Facebook Chat Thread

    Not long now Guys


  6. 12Z GFS Run is an absolute wet dream of a run for Tour 2

    If it plays out like it is showing then there will be multiple Severe Events over the Plains starting around the 17th to the 27th May

    This really could be another 2016 setting up here

    See you next week Guys


  7. The Drone footage is real, shot by Brandon Copic and already he is earning in the 10's of thousands of pounds for the footage.

    Luckily for him the Sulpher Tornado from earlier was pretty weak and he was able to fly that drone very close to the tornado.

    Incredible Footage


  8. Biggest risk of the week coming up today. Surface analysis shows a cold front out west currently and an SW-NE Oriented stationery Boundary across Central Oklahoma with a Warm Front extending NE From the Front through C Missouri into Southern Illinois this is as at 9am (Uk Time)

    Surface dewpoints south of the front are around 70f at the moment with warm south easterly winds, if the front reinforces and moves further North and West I can see an upgrade to Moderate Risk on the 13z or 16z Updates with an attendant 10% Hatched Risk for Tornadoes. If the cold front wins out and the front sags further east then the risk will transfer into the jungles of Eastern Oklahoma. The Warm Front also looks very nice and can see some Tornadoes in far NE Missouri and Southern Illinois today along the Warm Front.

    There is also a seperate play in the Low Rolling Plains of discrete Dryline Supercells but these are far removed from Upper Support and should rapidly weaken with loss of Daylight.

    HRRR paints a daunting picture for later with 2 bands of Discrete and Semi Discrete Supercells whereas NAM shows a more linear messy mode of embedded Supercells and more of a wind damage risk on broken S Bands and small bow echoes.

    I know we are there from this weekend but if the tours were on Day 1 then we would be having a very early lunch in Ardmore around 12 Noon

    Paul S


  9. Getting into the semi reliable for the start of Tour 1 now being only 6 days away.

    Looks like there could be some overnight storms on Saturday and Sunday but the first chances of proper chasing look to be Monday 6th May

    Thereafter am seeing a very favourable pattern for chasing numerous days on Tour 1 with plentiful moisture and decent upper support at 500mb with SW Flow at times, chase areas still up in the air but will become easier to nail down as we get to next weekend.

    All in all very happy with the outlook for an active May 

    Paul S


  10. As it stands as of Saturday 12z GFS run it looks like a Bonus Chase Day in the offing on Saturday and also quite a nice chase day on the Sunday as well in Kansas/Oklahoma.

    Will put up some charts in a little bit, most of the Hodos are showing Tornado though - woohoo


  11. 5 hours ago, Melvyn said:

    Hi Paul, looking forward to Tour 1 and the catchup. It doesn't seem that long since our epic photo tour last year. 

    I will be arriving in Dallas on the 3 May at 15:10 and staying at the Best Western Irving. If there is a chance of a transfer that would be great but if you are sorting out the cars - no worries.

    All best.

    Melvyn

    Hi Melvyn, should be ok to send a car over to Car Rentals as we will be working on the cars most of Friday and usually have cars 2 and 3 done by late morning. 


  12. Haha

    Yes just realised there is no Tour 5 starting topic so thanks for starting it Linda. This is the Photography Tour which runs from June 19th to June 30th

    See you all out there 


  13. Its a tough one thats for sure, quite a few caveats on this one none moreso than convection that looks like firing tonight around Midnight in the Concho Valley will have an impact on this set-up a full 18 hours before the event is unfolding. This convection coupled with precip further north spreading should link up near the Dallas area mid morning and march East North Eastwards. The Open warm sector will be uncapped which is a problem in itself with a lifting warm front. If too much convection fires and messy HP Structures all end up competing then it could dampen the tornado threat, but if temps climb to around 75 and enough solar heating can occur then we could be looking at some scary soundings tomorrow in Western Louisiana.

    Now onto the chase terrain, in a word its TERRIBLE

    Tall tress line I20 and I30 in East Texas into Louisiana, forest give way to swamps with little road options, fast moving SSW-NNE Tornadic Storms on mostly east to west roads is not easy and it might be a case of hoping your tornado gets it done whilst you have a decent view, not so much chasing really

    A better risk area might be late afternoon into evening much further east over the Mississippi Delta with much better chase terrain but fading light from the storms moving in from the rest might make this a nocturnal chase.

    Nightmare day coming up for the Arklatex tomorrow


  14. Yh

    Plenty of Eateries around the Hotels Complexes, including Ruby Tuesday which isnt usually that bad, there is a nice Restaurant attached to one of the hotels and also one of those Diner Places as well.

     


  15. Big old Messy MCS with embedded spin ups and mainly a wind risk in the enhanced area.

    We tend to stay away from that load of crap, so today like most chasers would focus on the 66/1 outsider and the triple point in Western Oklahoma for example

    Wednesdays storm system has some big issues, Capping to the south and where the severe is expected in the Central High Plains, moisture return will not be quality and by the time it rattles through snow will be the big namemaker on the back edge as it clears from west to east.

    One or two more cold frontal passages to come this spring before we heat up proper I think


  16. Not more I can add onto what Neil has written above. All Tours have their own merits and all tours have done better than others in the last 15 years.

    If you want the Southern Plains and more chance of Violent Tornado Outbreaks then the early tours would be your cup of tea

    If you want something in between maybe Southern Plains 1 day then High Plains of Colorado the next then the Middle Tours

    If you want a much slower pace of life the latter tours take in the Northern Plains and stunning scenery, harder road options but some incredibly structured Storms.

    Its all down to you Tim (Froze)

    As Neil says if there are storms we will be there and you will have a blast

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