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Paul Sherman

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Posts posted by Paul Sherman


  1. Yeah Canada looks High and dry this coming work week but am seeing signs of chases end of the week with a deep area of Low Pressure coming in for the 18th to 20th - Looks like Montana tomorrow, Wyoming on Tuesday and then Eastern Dakotas on Wednesday before making our way North again for the end of the week.


  2. 9 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    not a sausage in Edmonton ..had a cpl light showers..been no thunderstorms to hit the city this year thus far..need the heat for that and there has been none this year...i think SK/MB is the place to be this season

    Yh most of our chases will be in SAS and Manitoba and the Dakotas, if we are around Edmonton then we really are doing something badly wrong 😂


  3. 19 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Paul, I think you'll find Weyburn SK between Regina and Estevan is one place that gets more than its share of severe storms, and from there they tend to move northeast and cross the Trans-Canada Highway near Broadview SK. No guarantees but I would scout the roads in that section of the province (I have been through both places but never tried to navigate from one to the other directly). What range of dates will your tour cover? 

    Hi

    We will be chasing from Monday 15th until Thursday the 25th July 


  4. In just 1 week from now we will be starting our first ever Canadian Prairies Chase for Netweather. The Extended Models look really good for Storms, Chase Areas next week will include Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and the Northern Plains on the USA.

    Will post regular updates in this thread.


  5. Great Start to Tour 4 with 4 Kansas Tornadoes on a Slight Risk 2% Day

    The Goodland Supercell was an absolute beast sitting on the boundary most of the day

     

    1560057140132.jpg


  6. Hi Pete

    I will be arriving at the Days Inn with Tour 3 around 12 noon on Saturday so if you guys want to make your way over to the Days Inn some of the staff will already be there defo Graham Moore who arrives Friday 


  7. Yh could have been mass casualties Nick

    Re the misting up of the windows yes we came across this after leaving the Mangum Storm it quickly became undercut by the front and the look went from tornadic to outflow, we headed south towards Altus and went from 57f to 83f in the matter of 3 miles and the windows were instantly fogged up, one of the best I have seen in fact


  8. 1 Tornado for the team should have been 2 really but never connected to the Paducah storm until it rolled east of Childress due to the river crossing at Quanah. Then the fun began with the chasers yokels, yahoos, every single person in Oklahoma it seemed with some appalling driving going on and not just from chasers from the scientific people around those storms from the DOWS to Texas Tech University.

    That will be the last HIGH Risk I will chase in Oklahoma ever again and on other days we will go for the secondary target and leave the mess in Okie

    We did get the Mangum Tornado but really should have been next to it in a field and not 6 miles south of it.


  9. Have sent friend Requests to Camilla, Andrew and Vicky and as soon as they are approved will add you into the Tour 3 Facebook Chat Thread

    Not long now Guys


  10. 12Z GFS Run is an absolute wet dream of a run for Tour 2

    If it plays out like it is showing then there will be multiple Severe Events over the Plains starting around the 17th to the 27th May

    This really could be another 2016 setting up here

    See you next week Guys


  11. The Drone footage is real, shot by Brandon Copic and already he is earning in the 10's of thousands of pounds for the footage.

    Luckily for him the Sulpher Tornado from earlier was pretty weak and he was able to fly that drone very close to the tornado.

    Incredible Footage


  12. Biggest risk of the week coming up today. Surface analysis shows a cold front out west currently and an SW-NE Oriented stationery Boundary across Central Oklahoma with a Warm Front extending NE From the Front through C Missouri into Southern Illinois this is as at 9am (Uk Time)

    Surface dewpoints south of the front are around 70f at the moment with warm south easterly winds, if the front reinforces and moves further North and West I can see an upgrade to Moderate Risk on the 13z or 16z Updates with an attendant 10% Hatched Risk for Tornadoes. If the cold front wins out and the front sags further east then the risk will transfer into the jungles of Eastern Oklahoma. The Warm Front also looks very nice and can see some Tornadoes in far NE Missouri and Southern Illinois today along the Warm Front.

    There is also a seperate play in the Low Rolling Plains of discrete Dryline Supercells but these are far removed from Upper Support and should rapidly weaken with loss of Daylight.

    HRRR paints a daunting picture for later with 2 bands of Discrete and Semi Discrete Supercells whereas NAM shows a more linear messy mode of embedded Supercells and more of a wind damage risk on broken S Bands and small bow echoes.

    I know we are there from this weekend but if the tours were on Day 1 then we would be having a very early lunch in Ardmore around 12 Noon

    Paul S


  13. Getting into the semi reliable for the start of Tour 1 now being only 6 days away.

    Looks like there could be some overnight storms on Saturday and Sunday but the first chances of proper chasing look to be Monday 6th May

    Thereafter am seeing a very favourable pattern for chasing numerous days on Tour 1 with plentiful moisture and decent upper support at 500mb with SW Flow at times, chase areas still up in the air but will become easier to nail down as we get to next weekend.

    All in all very happy with the outlook for an active May 

    Paul S


  14. As it stands as of Saturday 12z GFS run it looks like a Bonus Chase Day in the offing on Saturday and also quite a nice chase day on the Sunday as well in Kansas/Oklahoma.

    Will put up some charts in a little bit, most of the Hodos are showing Tornado though - woohoo


  15. 5 hours ago, Melvyn said:

    Hi Paul, looking forward to Tour 1 and the catchup. It doesn't seem that long since our epic photo tour last year. 

    I will be arriving in Dallas on the 3 May at 15:10 and staying at the Best Western Irving. If there is a chance of a transfer that would be great but if you are sorting out the cars - no worries.

    All best.

    Melvyn

    Hi Melvyn, should be ok to send a car over to Car Rentals as we will be working on the cars most of Friday and usually have cars 2 and 3 done by late morning. 


  16. Haha

    Yes just realised there is no Tour 5 starting topic so thanks for starting it Linda. This is the Photography Tour which runs from June 19th to June 30th

    See you all out there 

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