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Paul Sherman

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Everything posted by Paul Sherman

  1. Yes the CZ was very picturesque from the East. This is looking west whilst London was getting flooded from Bas Vegas around 4pm today
  2. Haha Well other things got in the way today like my 17 year old Girl scoring a 92nd Minute 35 Yarder to win the game 3v4 over at Basildon. Got some cracking pictures of the Storms to the North West and West. Also had 5 hours worth of Storms along the South Coast on Friday night so although SE Essex has been a bust yet again I have had some chasing this weekend that bore fruit
  3. About 5 minutes of light rain which did not even dampen the ground. Knew the writing was on the wall for here as early as 11am with a cold easterly blowing up the Estuary and Cb's only really getting going to the North West and West around 2pm. Did look spectacular way off to the west but another damp squib for SE Essex.
  4. Skies are Flat and dead no chance for the foreseeable - its got to change an awful lot for us to get anything.
  5. Have that annoying area of rain coming into the Estuary so maybe thats the cooling breeze from that down here. Skies to West are boiling and black skies to east are dead and flat hopefully it improves later. Looking likely the main areas are going to be A12 to M11 down through London West Kent and Sussexes
  6. Checking in from the Extreme Eastern end of the Estuary and the suns trying to break through the clag, have a feeling gunna be the breeding ground for places further south and west today. All the bigger convection already over Kent and London area. No humid feel here at all with a cool breeze off the Southern North Sea
  7. Fantastic night with good friends watching Elevated Storms with great Cgs. Targeted an area east of the mush on the WNW Axis of turning Storms North of Chichester with great 360 degree views. Only got rained on briefly twice and these are off the back of the Camera for now but will be much better when edited and cleaned up. Just rolled in at 4am to Essex to bed. Not even scratched the surface with the amount of Cgs we got tonight.
  8. The Very Same VP - It even showed its ugly head in the Estuary lol Think it was around the 17th July some years back
  9. 99% Yes 1 recent one I remember that did make it over from La France was the Camber Sands Supercell / Ex-Supercell that hit a good few years back
  10. Well I am going anyway - Meeting up with some of our guests who have been on our US Storm Chasing trips and if anything else we will have a nice BBQ with a decent view and if something kicks off then a bonus, if not then it will have been nice to have a meet up after such a $ hite 18 months
  11. Are you talking about Lincoln or everywhere else in General. Lincoln has pretty much zero chance today but other areas are not working off Solar Input today more the destabilisation of the 850mb layer as the Theta engages overnight.
  12. Cant see much commenting on the 06z Arome on here ? Looks pretty decent to me for a much wider audience
  13. Looks very similar to a few weeks back when Lightning will be more prevalent as time goes by on the eastern end of the storms moving north out of France. Expect bright echoes firstly from IOW westwards from 18z to 23z this as Dan says merging into Thundery rain as it makes its way North but regeneration further east as storms push northwards all the way to East Sussex / Kent coast looks likely. I will be out and about waiting for the early hours show and will not get tempted by a drive towards Hampshire or Dorset, gunna be a long night but hopefully 1 thats worth it in the end if the expected High Based elevated lightning occurs off the coast. If any others are out good luck and I have my spot in mind already.
  14. Ironically I work in Romford Monday to Fridays and left for home to Leigh On Sea at 5pm today (2 miles from the Tornado) I did notice some massive TCU building just south of NE London probably over the Thames around 530pm. One thing that did happen today was convective temps reached 23c at one point whereas Brick and Nick and Dan said 20c was needed for deeper convection to occur so that threshold was met easily. I believe this was a weak Supercell that did indeed split near Brentwood and right moved. Interestingly where the Tornado occured had no rainfall as most of the precip was sheared away in the FFD to the North of the Tornado site again promoting a proper Supercell storm with updraught downdraught seperation and rotation pretty much from the get go. It was severe in 5 scans (25mins) and hail was reported in the North quadrant of the storm. So picturing this storm in my head and knowing the area very well the Tornado would have occured under the RFB (Rain Free Base) in the South West part of the storm and VERY Early in the Storms life cycle. There was also an earlier right mover near Burnham on Crouch around 4pm which again produced a Funnel 3/4 of the way to the ground, conditions today were clearly condusive to rotating storms. Spreads were good as well with 72/59 widely across the SE and Easterly surface inflow winds. More of this please this summer but hopefully out in the countryside and not built up areas
  15. Moving onto the 1990's and June Thunderstorms have lifted the following from my book, hopefully some of you remember some of these years and can put your own stories to them. 1993 Mostly fine and dry, but there were some very violent thunderstorms and heavy rain midmonth (9-16th). A thunderstorm gave 125 mm of rain at Culdrose (Cornwall); 92 mm in two hours early on the 9th. Flooding in Helston. Hailstone damage to glass In Northants. 175mm on the 10th at Llandudno, 140mm of it in 4 hours; flooding over the area and in Conwy. 121 mm in 2.5 hours at North Weald, with much flooding. 92mm in three hours at Epping. There was more very heavy rain over Wales and the southwest on the 11th and 12th 1994 Violent thunderstorms on the 24th over the southeast as a cold front moved east. Lightning damage and death. 27mm of rain in 11 minutes at Wokingham; large hailstones; winds of 47mph, and a gust of 62mph at Herstmonceux (E. Sussex). The storm activity was preceded by rapid development of altocumulus castellanus on the night of the 23-24th. 1996 A plume of hot air up from Spain gave a very hot first week - the earliest such hot spell since 1976. Temperatures were hot on the 5th and 6th; Atlantic fronts brought more cloud to parts on the 7th, although the SE remained sunny. 33.1C at St. James's Park, Westminster, London, on the 7th; a temperature this high so early in the year only happens a few times this century. As a cold front moved south in the evening on the 7th there were violent thunderstorms, particularly from Dorset through the East Midlands into East Anglia. There were 8 damaging hail swaths. 30mm hail, a tornado in Basingstoke and Sherborne, 73.9 mm of rain at Wantage, 30 mm widespread, squally winds, golfball-sized hail, lightning strikes causing power loss, and perhaps best of all, ball lightning in a factory in Tewkesbury, where it exploded with an orange flash. 1998 There was a severe thunderstorm in Reading in the afternoon of the 13th, accompanied by a damaging tornado. 1999 Violent thunderstorms, with notable lightning displays, over much of the country on the night of the 26-27th. Will put up the 2000's over the weekend
  16. Stunners tonight in the South East. Finally clear skies in what seems like weeks of endless low clouds
  17. To Give you an idea just how pathetic our little Island has become I have lifted some artifacts from a book I have detailing June Thunderstorms over the decades. 1980 There was a major outbreak of thunderstorms in the north and west on the 5th. Deaths by lightning; tornado at Nairn wrecked a caravan site. 67mm of rain in two hours caused flooding at Darwen (Lancs.). More storms on the 14th: 24 mm of rain in 10 minutes at Sudbury. Widespread storms every afternoon from the 22nd-26th. On the 25th hail lay to a depth of 25cm in Sevenoaks 1982 Much of the rain came from thunderstorms. King's Lynn had 13 thunder days that month. Some notable thunderstorms at the start of the month, which began hot and humid. Thuderstorms on the afternoon of the first led to flooding arounf Huddersfield. There was 90 mm of rain in two hours at Wooton Bassett (Wilts) on the 2nd. 92 mm of rain at Cheshunt (Herts.) and 61mm at Enfield on the 4th. Cheshunt then had a further 35mm of rain on the 5th (that meant twice the normal monthly rainfall in two days). Thunderstorms were widespread on the 4-6th, with lightning deaths. 39 mm of rain in 25 minutes at Stoke-by-Clare (Suffolk) on the 6th; 96 mm at Skipton (North Yorks.) on the 6th. At the same time, 30C was reached at Tummel Bridge on the 5th. There was a notable hailstorm in Bristol on the 18th. Two days of rain over northern England on the 21-22nd, with low daytime temperatures of only 10 degrees. The area around the Humber had 100 mm of rain in 75 hours in that spell. Heavy downpour in Epping Forest on the 25th causing muddy flooding. On the 26th a severe storm in north London led to the death of three children by drowning in a swollen stream at Hendon. 36mm at Stanmore, most of it in half an hour. A severe hailstorm at Ludlow (Shrops.) on the 26th resulted in foot-deep hail drifts. 1983 Some notable thunderstorms. As hot air from the south met cool air from the northeast, there were some severe thunderstorms on the 5th over the south coast, with hail reported up to 75 mm, although most were around 30mm. There was a small tornado near Brighton, leading to a crabfall. The storm clouds were reported as an eery green colour. Coal picked up by a small tornado fell on Poole during a storm. The cold front associated with the depression led to more thunder and hailstorms on the 7th, particularly over Wales and the west: hailstones 75 mm in diameter were reported in a storm in Manchester, with spectacular lightning. Much damage. There were some unsettled westerlies in second week. It was then warm and settled before more severe thunderstorms on 23rd, with103 mm of rain near Alresford (Hants.). 1984-1987 Thundery hot and humid weather most of these Junes with Plume events impacting the United Kingdom 1988 & 1989 These 2 years saw little in the way of June Thunderstorms but a Heavy Hailstorm near Chatham on the 6th June 1989 the highlight on a very thundery day for the Uk. I can put the 1990's and 2000's in as well if people want and also have all the events from Julys and Augusts if anyone is interested
  18. Explosion of elevated convection over the south east in the last 20 mins but looks very shallow at present
  19. Yh this is a grim day. The heat and humidity is about 100 miles to our east now and we are on the cold side of the warm front (eg any Storms will be elevated) some day in store for NW Germany Holland and parts of Belgium though with a set up more akin to the Plains. Any storm there that rides the warm front could produce a strong Tornado today. Tomorrow night looking meh atm as well hoping that might change for the better though not holding out much hope
  20. Storms south of Brighton will track toward you dont think this is over yet, the transport of High Theta from the East is still enhancing potential. Its like a sauna out there still
  21. Thanks mate, was not expecting a Cg to jump out about 3 miles in front of the others, also shot it in Jpeg whereas if I was on Raw could have recovered it. Just nice to see a storm again tbh
  22. Absolutely bummed about this picture. Tried to recover it but there was a Cg to the left of this picture which landed about 200 yards in front of me and screwed my F-Stop up and totally took me by surprise. Rustiness!!
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