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Singularity

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Singularity last won the day on March 9 2016

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About Singularity

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    MSc Meteorology

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    Male
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    New Forest (Western)
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    Meteorology - Science and Observations | Cycling - On and Off Road | Walking or Hiking | Electronic Music Creation
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    The Extremes! Passionate Hater of Drizzle.

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  1. So about 10 of the last 24 hours have brought temps of 1*C and mostly rain with a bit of sleet here and there. Given a few reports of snow to the south of me at what appears to be similar or even lower elevation, it appears all I need is a bit of added intensity to the precipitation - but the radar is so messed up this morning that I can't really tell what's coming my way. I can see these heavier pulses moving through London but then there's a cut-off not far to the SW beyond which it all looks light. Which is the real deal? Then there's the extremely dodgy Dean Hill radar cutting a hole in the observations. It's all guesswork going forward! Must say though, this has been in the top 3 most miserable spells of winter weather I've had to endure this past decade.
  2. Very impressive looking storm to the SW on IR satellite... hopefully it won’t intensify faster than expected having absorbed the weak secondary low several hours ahead of schedule, as that could bring more in the way of milder air around the circulation... although if the convergence line to the N was able to hold its ground that could simply serve to increase precipitation intensity while cold air feeds in from the NE... hmm yes I see why MWB considers this one of the trickiest forecasts in many a year!
  3. Worth noting that Met Office only speak of sleet below 100 m - although whether this becomes void if precipitation is heavier, I'm not sure. It hasn't worked today until very briefly at the last minute (before it all cleared up) but the parameters look a tad more favourable tomorrow.
  4. In a heavier burst, might have been some wet flakes in the mix here but that's as close as I've got. Seems the few 10s of metres asl difference between Downton and here was critical; snow is falling west of here as well, where there is also a little more height. Not sure how much longer into the night this feed of showers from WNW is going to continue; most models had fizzled it out by now.
  5. As if I haven't been tormented enough already today with the radar overestimating precipitation rates and also showing snow 5 miles up the road from me for several hours now (although this may also be false - but it's devilish behaviour). Don't get me wrong, I always knew it was a long shot for here today, but the close proximity and constant signs of potential transition falling short have made it hard to shrug off even for someone as familiar as I am with being in the least snowy region of CS England (the dreaded southern half of the Avon Valley).
  6. Interesting process appears to be occurring whereby the lying snow that's south of where the models had it causes lower DPs and air temps downwind than predicted, which turns precipitation to sleet and then snow earlier than expected there, which (in time) puts down at least patchy snow accumulations there, which lowers DPs and air temps downwind from there... and so on. That's my attempt to explain the current model versus reality discrepancies, and may also account for the snow line being misplaced on the NetWeather radar, depending on whether that's based on model parameters or observations...?
  7. 17.3 miles NE of here according to Google Maps. I sense a disturbance in the farce. Hmm, I've been staring at screens too much lately...
  8. 00z ARPEGE had snow fizzling by late Sunday. 06z has a lingering band well into tomorrow. What a devious tease by that model! Not much change in the LP behaviour from the 00z - there just seems to be better moisture availability on this run.
  9. @legritter, my condolences, sad to hear of that. Glad to see you're enjoying some snow today To those surprised at snow settling after rain, in late Nov 2010 I witnessed heavy rain and 5*C change over to heavy snow and 0*C in the space of 10 minutes, with snow starting to build a continuous layer just half an hour after that. Admittedly it was a bit heavier that day than I can see in the Bristol area now for example, but it offers some hope for those currently seeing rain with the snow line not far away .
  10. Still keeping an eye on this potential interaction of the flow around the French low with the old frontal boundary early tomorrow. Today... well, it seems the circulation is scooting east as fast as any model dared take it, with not much of a secondary low hanging back to prolong snow chances that way, so it really is a case of moisture supply versus the inherently drier cold air cutting in down the western flank of the main low.
  11. Temp was meant to hit 6-8*C in far S this morning and then fall rapidly in the afternoon, the main issue today-tomorrow is less whether it turns cold enough and more whether there’s sufficient precipitation still falling to produce any lying snow once it has done so. Models are 50:50 on this so I’m not daring to expect much down here in the far S.
  12. Looks on target to me - what site are you viewing them on as the time stamps on that site are an hour ahead of GMT?
  13. Starting to look like even far-southerners may be a bit distracted from the longer-term by tomorrow evening . The cold pooling on the 12z GFS is considerable not far east of here. Were it not for the westerly bias of lower-res, I think we'd have had some fun charts to look at there. I suppose we actually did for Xmas Day (despite a less than ideal sliding low track) but it could easily have been quite a bit sooner. GFS takes quite a while to switch over to Aleutian ridging. I can see how a bit of toning down of the Pacific westerlies could bring it about a good few days sooner. The Aleutian Low/Siberian High combo does plenty of work on the stratosphere beforehand, though - so it may be best if that's not cut off too soon after all? Judging by IF's tweets in the model tweets thread, the Met Office are already adjusting their timing accordingly (via GloSea5 behaving itself); the longevity of the more zonal signal is being played down more today than was the case yesterday.
  14. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome.php?ech=3&mode=142&map=0 Okay so I've finally had a look. Interesting indeed with snow-rain-snow events on offer for locations as far south as me overnight Sun-Mon and all snow for places just a little N of me (say, 20+ miles inland from the coast?). The brief transition to rain occurs where the 'warm' sector of the LP just edges inland a touch in a shallow wedge formation. That region does see heavier precipitation as a trade-off but it only takes a bit of rain to mush some nice lying snow into a nasty slushy later that then freezes into ice when further snow starts falling. This region, i.e. CS England less than 20 miles from the coast, is within a minute (by modelling standards) S shift of an all-snow event, but equally so of an all-rain event. Talk about nerve-wracking! This is why I was actually more relaxed when the snow prospects were minimal this far south . AROME, linked above, actually brings the snow south by Sunday afternoon in a sweeping motion that's seriously mesmerising. Seems this wrap-around of cold has increased with each new run today as the elongation of the overall trough structure to the west has been diminished to the point of insignificance. WRF-NMM 2km 12z is not so 'sweeping' in its ways but does have an interesting boundary line setting up that transitions to snow by Sunday evening as the cold air cuts in; I can already see the forum posts complaining about the wet ground making it take so long for the snow to start accumulating .
  15. Been too busy with non-weather things to keep track of the models today (shock horror!) but as interesting as the slider low adjustments are and that potential storm on Monday for that matter, what has caught my eye most today has been the huge discrepency between the model projections of two days ago that I saved for verification purposes and the actual observed MJO; I have overlaid below with the old runs as those fainter blue lines. No need to worry which model is which as they've all had a total 'mare . Seriously though, this means a lot more forcing toward amplification and HLB to our N and NE than the models have been working with lately. Might take a day for the corrected signals to work through fully but GFS looks to already be smelling the first fumes from the coffee. There could even be increased sharpness to the ridge-trough pattern Thu-Fri this coming week but that might be too close in range given the typical lag time for tropical forcing to propagate across to the Atlantic sector.
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