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Singularity

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Singularity last won the day on September 14

Singularity had the most liked content!

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About Singularity

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    MSc Meteorology

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    Male
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    New Forest (Western)
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    Meteorology - Science and Observations | Cycling - On and Off Road | Walking or Hiking | Electronic Music Creation
  • Weather Preferences
    The Extremes! Passionate Hater of Drizzle.

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  1. 7.0*C and 105 mm please. Not very interesting but the signals are very mixed so it may hide some considerable variation within the month... just like we've seen in many of them this year!
  2. Funny enough that'd be precisely 10 years to the date since the Oct 2008 snow that even managed to fall in London for a time. Gave me a miss of course, but it takes a lot more to do the business over here than in the SE. My snow appetite is unusually low this winter though - thanks to the amount I saw last Feb-Mar. It's so liberating .
  3. Time for a couple of if onlys! - If only it was a month or two later in time - if only there weren't predominantly warm SSTs in the direction from which the flow will make its way down to us. The second point does draw attention, though, to the fact that those SSTs to our N and NE are a lot less positive overall than seen for a number of years now. They're still very positive further afield in the Kara Sea though... which may mean we keep the additional height rise encouragement to our NE while benefiting from less moderation of cold air drawn from our N and NE during at least the early part of the coming winter. Provided we get such air flows, that is!
  4. The pattern looks increasingly amplified during the next 10 days with some unusually strong mid-latitude ridging around. Ties in well with some strong MJO activity in the western Indian Ocean of late and with a recycle looking to get underway in the coming days (though GEFS way more amplified with this than ECM), though Arctic amplification is probably adding at least a little more to the ridge-trough amplitude; the situation is just crazy up north of us. The MJO forcing will conflict with the current Nino-like state of the tropical Pacific SSTs - and in fact, it appears it (the MJO forcing) will be the more dominant factor, with the ridge tending more west of the UK during the final week of the month in a Nina-like fashion. Meanwhile, there are signs of further WWBs to help those tropical Pacific SSTs rise further. A big ocean-atmosphere disconnect evolving - but how long can it last?
  5. 10.1*C and 84 mm, thanks. Yep - extremely boring - but I'm staying 'serious' and hoping that the scientific approach can recover at least a little after the tragic 'no-Nino' situation of Aug-Sep which threw the estimates wide(r) of the mark .
  6. Thanks for your thoughts @tight isobar. I for one am really interested in what impacts the exceptional warmth in the Baltic Sea May have as the surrounding land cools. A strong anomalous heat input surrounded by a large sink. Hmm...!
  7. Seems to be all about how cleanly a disturbance splits away from the main trough out to our WSW next weekend. At +120 I must admit I feared UKMO was going to follow GFS with a clean split (but with the storm crossing us less potent) but +144 revealed just enough low heights being held back to keep the Atlantic trough - Euro ridge combination in place and even allow that ridge to edge toward the UK more. Really interesting how the ECM 00z hardly manages to split anything away at all, with the main trough still alive and well right through into next week before yet again it shows the pattern flattening (which given caution over GWO projections may be the more realistic outcome). Some considerably warm air aloft for a time but the raw data only peaks low-mid 20s, on the Monday. The maritime airmass origin leads to a lot of cloud cover. More balmy nights are the most notable result. For next week onward ECM and GFS are mostly some 5-8*C different in terms of mean temps .
  8. So ECM sided with UKMO over GFS for the weekend - a warn blast remains as much on the table as a chilly one. Looking into the following week, though, you can really see the seasonal changes coming into play as cold air becomes more widespread in the far-N. Atlantic and it becomes harder and harder to avoid a properly unsettled run of weather. While still in September, and upward kick in AAM is still a potential means of achieving much in the way of settled conditions. The models generally remain keen on this happening, but sadly, they have been persistently overestimating on this front for about a month now, so it's hard to have much confidence in high pressure gaining the upper hand for more than the odd day or two during the next 8-14 days. I know, though, that an increasing number on here will not be displeased at this; those who enjoy the wilder side of the autumn season. By late October I typically jump into that bandwagon (until if and when wintry weather becomes a reasonable prospect... or we arrive at next spring... 2013-14 comes to mind!), but before then I still prefer light winds and warm sunshine - perhaps I was originally destined for the Mediterranean but got misdirected along the way into this world .
  9. The situation this coming weekend strikes me as being one of high potential development but in a direction that's unclear and susceptible to the slightest of variations in the balance of play; signs are some amplification to the flow may kick in while there's a strong ridge trying to build from the south, and this can result in anything from a major plume to a chilly northerly-type flow... as GEM and GFS handily illustrate this evening. I really hope GFS is just going feedback-crazy with those Thursday and weekend storms; they look potentially very damaging to the still leafy deciduous trees of our lands. That being said, recent over-enthusiasm for sending the atmosphere on a high-amplitude GWO orbit leads me to be sceptical of so much amplification taking place. The flatter ECM 00z may be a better guide in light of this. Less exciting for sure, but that's just how it goes sometimes.
  10. Met Office issue a warning that includes western parts of mainland UK and right on cue, GFS 06z adjusts furthest west of any run from that model so far. Serious hat on - the MO are right to include western UK as there's not only hurricane Helene but also subtropical storm Joyce consider as well when it comes to the track that this bout of unusually strong winds (for the time of year at least) will take. Longer-term, the signal for a notable build of high pressure from the southwest keeps turning up, but the details are varying a lot; With only a weak, stuttering tropical cycle to guide things, the knock-on effects of variations in tropical/subtropical cyclone movement are especially large, and it's hard to place much confidence in any particular solution, particularly given that the models keep seeing more of a tropical cycle emerging in the near-term than is actually observed; a persistent error that's been ongoing since mid-August.
  11. The increasing AAM and GWO phase 3-4 move is a part of the equation, but also uncertain in terms of how far it goes. Generally I'm of the impression that the bigger the AAM climb, the further west Helene is likely to track as a result of the Atlantic trough being sharpened up. While waiting for the models to figure that out, I'm having some strong Ophelia flashbacks looking at this! Strangely, the rain distribution becomes more like a major hurricane as the storm reaches this point, having only resembled an 'angry blob' beforehand. Given what we saw last October, perhaps the increasing Coriolis effect while moving over unusually warm SSTs allows this gain in organisation and strength even as the SSTs lower. If it wasn't for what Ophelia did, I'd be throwing out any notion of a major hurricane making it so close to the UK. How times have changed!
  12. Well, it's nice to see the actual AAM finally trending positive and the GWO on a phase 3-4 movement, after the concerns of recent days with the observations refusing to follow the model simulations. Even now, how much AAM rise occurs is questionable - but even a little bit may well be enough to direct ex-Helene in a manner that's very conducive to large-scale warm air advection across the UK from the SSW or S. The tropical infusion results in an exceptionally warm night or two in recent ECM and GFS runs. The early Wed temps on the 06z GFS aren't far off the long-term average maximums for mid-September. Once ex-Helene has moved through, the main question is then to what extent the Atlantic trough, boosted by the tropical infusion, is able to overpower the Euro ridge. I expect GFS is displaying some classic bias with that, but ECM may be too, i.e. while the former is too progressive, the latter might not be progressive enough. The balance of power here will have a huge effect on UK temperatures.
  13. In the broadest possible sense, ENSO phases encourage certain weather patterns to occur more often then others, but still within a cycle of patterns that means monthly means tend not to capture the relationship (let alone seasonal means!) and even weekly means can struggle unless they're very accurately selected. On top of that, there are shifts from one month to the next owing to the ever-changing thermal gradient magnitudes and patterns, as the seasons interchange and yes, interference from other phenomena can also result in short-term variations on the theme. It really is no wonder that weather forecasting is such a demanding business and one that has to allow for quite a lot of error beyond 4-5 days range (and sometimes even within that).
  14. ECM playing with the idea of bringing a son-of-Ophelia... that'd be quite something to have two such intense hurricanes so far (indeed, record-breakingly far) north and east, two years running. SST anomalies indicate that it could be done if the storm was to take such a track - but it's way too far out to consider this seriously at the moment. That aside, the impacts of the Arctic sea ice on the N. Hemisphere cold air distribution is catching my eye already; there's an unusually intense focusing around Greenland/NE Canada as the usual polar vortex-friendly Arctic ocean is still too 'warm' what with all the extra open ocean around. This could lead to more ridging from the southwest than usual for a Nina-like atmospheric state, much as we saw May-June this year, but on the other hand, seasonal differences to back then may allow the Atlantic storms to come raging on in across at least the northwest of the UK. I sense that we're going to need some strong attacks on the vortex to prevent it dominating proceedings from that position to our NW (be that via downstream ridges or troughs firing across us) in the coming months.
  15. Hmm. Hints that maybe hurricane Florence could trigger upstream amplification soon enough that the main Atlantic trough stalls far west enough for some European ridge action. Should the trough then drop south as amplification increases further, well, the GFS 06z shows perhaps the most extreme result . Trouble is, it's possible that Florence could avoid the recurving path and nullify those downstream impacts on our weather, though the latest modelling does favour that strongly, even if it hits the US, as a 'scraping' impact is being indicated; crossing the Carolinas or thereabouts in an arc before exiting to the ENE or NE. The late stages of the GFS 06z run are why I'm glad it still goes out past +10 days despite the poor reliability .
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