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Singularity

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Singularity last won the day on March 9 2016

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About Singularity

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    MSc Meteorology

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    New Forest (Western)
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    Meteorology - Science and Observations | Cycling - On and Off Road | Walking or Hiking | Electronic Music Creation
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    The Extremes! Passionate Hater of Drizzle.

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  1. Ohh yes. Hammered the Channel Islands while far-southerners wept into their cornflakes.
  2. Thanks for your thoughts Nick. My instinct tells me that surely it would take a well defined steering flow to push a low right into deep cold air, meaning this collapse of NE steering should serve to keep the low from making it right across the UK. Does that make sense or are the beers messing with my scientific sense? Can’t help but entertain the prospect of a band of snow stalking across S England and then clearing to very slack, clear conditions with temps absolutely plummeting. Both from the point of view of being a fascinating event, and that of it being tragic for some wildlife, homeless people etc. So mixed emotions, but that’s always going to be the case with the most severe manifestations of weather. It is what it is, for better or worse.
  3. EPS have a habit of leaning againt ECM right? Even so, a glancing blow at most still makes more sense to me than the low getting right across the UK. Maybe the low getting across the far south as per UKMO 12z in the most extreme case - but the major letdown of March 2013 has made me completely unable to trust such outcomes at more than a few days’ range. Having said that, while a halfway house between GFS and ECM remains a very snowy outcome, I will be feeling at least a little positive with respect to that potential event. Just a whole bunch of potential snow streamers to resolve first...!
  4. Hmm two runs in a row with the 'grazer' scenario. Now I really am thinking of that March 2013 let-down! Oh wait hang on I forgot, this is GFS; it's defying what the jet pattern dictates should occur and taking the low more N than E now. I suppose it's not exactly out of the question that something like this could transpire. I can already hear the Londoners ranting .
  5. The models keep competing for the most sensational chart award! I am trembling! Glad to see the more eastern LP track explored again, for the reasons I outlined earlier in response to Carinthian's very insightful update.
  6. ECM has slightly lower uppers out east. Let's see what it can do with those... Edit: +96 is spot the difference; That shortwave by Iceland is better defined but has moved mostly to the west since +72. Trough across Italy is in place and at about the same minimum pressure so that's good. Azores low also very similar and with that handy disruption on the E side; merger of this with the Italian trough on the UKMO 12z at +120 tightens the flow and pulls deeper cold west compared to what would occur otherwise.
  7. Goes without saying really but huge thanks for the insight Carinthian As you say, Thursday the latest consensus for the coldest day in the UK. GFS maximums impressive given this is having overlooked the probable lying snow across inland parts of Southern England (chart included purely for reference). The part of your post I've put in bold may leave some in the west feeling less cheerful on the face of it, but reading in between the lines, it suggests LP getting further E than the 12z GFS and 00z ECM op runs have shown us before any attempt to pus north, which improves the chances of staying within the deeply cold air as it slowly but surely destabilises; I can see the longer-term result from that being more widespread snow than in the scenario of a direct attack of LP from the south. As for the even more intense cold pool for early March, well that is fascinating as it sounds like even weak Scandinavian ridges may be sufficient to keep the imports coming from well to the east? Either than or one heck of a Greenland block is expected and not west-based for that matter? If you can't give away such details I will understand, but I feel it's worth a try .
  8. Been out all day so only just catching up and it appears the 'tail back' of heights across Scandinavia has gained more support today. Glad to see LP no longer diving down so fast and far west to slice that apart by Tue-Wed as was the behaviour of a concerning number of runs yesterday. GFS making less of that tail than most, which combined with it's typical poleward LP track bias makes me even more skeptical than usual of how it manages to sweep in air with 2 m temps as high as +7*C for the far south during the night of 2nd-3rd. At the very least I'd expect to see the milder air mixed out strongly as per the ECM 00z - but even that general idea of a low drifting N seems a bit off when the jet stream is still tracking on east through the Mediterranean. Typically in that scenario we the trough unable to form a single clean circulation, as the deep cold keeps interfering with anything more than about 100 miles in diameter - so forcing the trough to 'make do' with multiple smaller circulations which don't push north so effectively and tend to 'tuck in' colder air into their relatively small, right circulations, with exciting/troublesome results if they've made it over land. Admittedly these 'rules' are not absolute so we can't rule out a broader circulation overcoming the odds, but while it's at more than 4 day's range, model runs performing such actions don't concern me too much. Hopefully we won't have to deal with any such solutions inside the 4 day range as I can just imagine the pandemonium as the snow/rain boundary shifts with each new run!
  9. Still some tight/straightness of flow issues to resolve before we know how soon the deep cold lands, but by far the biggest message the model output of today has given me is this: We need the southerly jet to drive a trough at least as far east as the Balearic Isles by Wednesday and then ideally as far as Italy by next Thursday. Reason being the strengthened signal for the main focus of high latitude blocking to shift rapidly to the NW and with more exploration of a west-based negative NAO outcome; we need the LP to the SE so that deep cold will continue being pushed in our direction even as the blocking moves away. Inevitably the flow will then spread out and destabilise, but with enough of a residual E flow this could well leave the UK beneath a large area of air still cold enough for all-snow events and with numerous disturbances drifting across from day to day. Alternatively, the negative NAO may set up more east-based after all, in which case you can get that splendid transition from the Arctic continental to Arctic maritime cold airmasses with only a narrow band of less cold air between, if even that - much as we saw ECM exploring yesterday. If troughs don't make it so far east, you most likely end up with a GFS 12z scenario although probably not quite so fast to shove the less cold air in (let alone the JMA 12z with its unusually deep lows!).
  10. Still capable of prolonging the cold if the LP to the S can get far E enough. Not only that but potentially making it more intense again for a time. The huge contrast with UKMO regarding the orientation of the flow and how much the high remains extended out east tells us that, as with yesterday evening, we still don't really know anything beyond 'cold to very cold with snow chances widely' with respect to the likely outcome next week.
  11. GFS isn't dropping a low down east of Greenland on this run but it also avoids using a split from the polar vortex to slice away the eastern extension to the blocking high which will help greatly in sustaining the E flow of deep cold compared to the relatively disappointing UKMO 12z. Shocking how quickly that run and the ECM 00z slice into what are seriously high heights just a day earlier in time. Seems unreasonable but the weather does have a habit of being that way. Will have to see how the ensembles behave with respect to that 'slicer low' as I will now call it... a back down from ECM would be handy though!
  12. Oh no, the most infamously progressive of models with Atlantic lows turns the snow to rain in just the very far south for a whole 9 hours at 9-10 days range! Joking aside, the scale of swing from more south to more north than ECM on this run goes to show, we don’t really know much about what will most likely go down next week beyond ‘generally cold to very cold with snow chances widely’.
  13. Agreed, I can remember a few past examples in which a predicted (by models) dry day was interrupted at least once by those magnificent sort of billowing yet at the same time wispy clouds, leading to a sudden transition at ground level from clear to snowing readily. Admittedly some of those may be from my dreams but I assure you it has happened in reality at least once this century . So yes, should be lesson one of global model reading really; don't trust them to handle convective showers.
  14. Something that's caught my eye today is a (tentative but present) trend toward a stronger and flatter jet tracking through Iberia and on a good way across the Med. This works well for us as LPs then continue east with no build-up of warmer uppers trying to push our deep cold away - just a bit of a nudge with snow potential from that - and then (and this is what really gets my attention) and they set up an easterly flow that can transport further deep cold our way even as the blocking shifts toward Greenland. Such an outcome is hard to see in ensemble height means because the heights are actually pretty low where the deep continental cold is located under relatively weak ridging. So we're left just waiting to see if it becomes a more consistent theme among operational runs over the next few days. Though if anyone thinks they can see a supportive EPS cluster that'd be great .
  15. A lot of easterlies messed up by shortwave lows were cases that had us looking to be near the western limits of a less extensive area of deep cold, with much less margin for error than we have on this occasion. Its like being sat on the train tracks instead of at the station, and so close to the train yard that even if it derails it will probably still crash into you. Or something like that anyway! For this reason it is a adjustment southward that I am wary of most - a rebuilding of the train line itself along a new trajectory. That 40% ECM cluster likely contains a fair few of those. There’s always something isn’t there?
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