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Singularity

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Singularity last won the day on June 25

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About Singularity

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    MSc Meteorology

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    Male
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    New Forest (Western)
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    Meteorology - Science and Observations | Cycling - On and Off Road | Walking or Hiking | Electronic Music Creation
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    The Extremes! Passionate Hater of Drizzle.

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  1. Follows UKMO making more of that low too. Still a weakening feature as it heads south but sufficient to make Saturday another ‘small chance of catching a shower’ day for S and SE England. There’s been a number of those down here in the last week or so (but only a few spots of rain so far). Sunday has for some time looked to be ‘clean up day’ for England in particular with sunnier skies and temps getting back closer to 30 in places having ‘only’ been mid-high 20s during the preceding few days. Nice to have some more summery weather to look forward to even as we wait for mid-late next week to be resolved.
  2. A better effort from the 12z ECM: Having spotted Tamara's post from earlier (and oh look, there's another one!) I sense that I may have been worrying too much about interference from the MJO driving the counter-intuitive model behaviour for mid-late next week; with a seasonal wavelength change that supports moving a trough in and counteractive forcing that the models struggle to read reliably, it's really no surprise that some progressive runs are turning up from time to time. Strange thing is, I had that view a few days ago but then lost sight of it. An intense working life can have that effect sometimes . Even so, I continue to look at each set of deterministic runs out of curiosity as to how soon they can resolve the problem at hand. That's why I look at GFS, as daft as that model can seem sometimes!
  3. Poor performance the models with respect to handling the MJO; yesterday's runs had little movement or even slight reverse movement (back toward 4) for today, but the actual is continued steady propagation east toward phase 6. Really strange how today's runs haven't adjusted for this at all; still predicting little or reversed propagation. This (and the associated trade wind patterns; stronger in the Central Pacific) seems likely to be the main reason why the modelling for next week just feels strange at the moment; they're not moving the MJO in a fashion that ties in with the overall emerging El Nino trends, so there's a conflict of forcing being fed through (phases 5 and 6 promote lower heights to our E and NE, contradicting with what rising AAM promotes). So if the MJO continues to propagate steadily east rather than slow to a crawl in phase 6 or decline gradually in phase 5, we should soon see an improvement in UK-Scandinavian ridging being projected for mid-late next week. Still possible that the MJO won't behave so helpfully, though - it depends to what extent this behaviour from the models is driven by a genuine counteracting development or confusion as a result of other tropical phenomena. M. Ventrice's alternate analyses of the MJO suggest it's the confusion - but I'm not sure if the models read-in MJO data in the format used above having processed the raw data through the RMM formulas, or work without applying such processing. If it's the latter then it shouldn't matter that the RMM approach is making such a mess of the MJO analysis. The plot thickens! I must admit that even knowing the limitations of NWP modelling, I've been disappointed by the way they've behaved over the past few days - I'd hoped to see a clearer trend toward more UK-Scandinavia ridging emerge by now. At least the in-house models used by the Met Office seem to be handling things more like I was hoping for, judging by their written updates for days 6-15 and 16-30.
  4. UKMO's been acting a bit odd today; it's making more of the weakening LP brushing past the UK Fri-Sat than the other models, which on the 12z interferes with the extension east of the Azores High over the following few days. The 00z dropped it further south with the ridge building across to its north, which ironically led to some of the highest UK SLP of the 00z runs for days 5-6. Anyway, watching the GFS 12z roll out, I'm being given an increasingly strong impression that the low south of Greenland next Tuesday is the one that ought to bring about the pattern of a mid-Atlantic trough dug a good way south and a ridge from S UK to Scandinavia or thereabouts. The 12z is making a better effort with that than the 06z did but that low moving NE through the UK is complicating matters. Westward corrections of the mid-Atlantic trough are still needed. It will also help if the trough that stretches SW from near Iceland Sun-Mon can reach more west than south. Sigh. Sometimes I do wonder why I even bother with GFS!
  5. The Atlantic trough just needs to be a bit sharper than the 00z GFS and ECM runs have gone with; that should bring an end to the development of a vague 'col' to our near-NE into which shallow lows can keep on drifting and messing with the attempts to build a UK-Scandinavia ridge. Recently, the MJO has been outperforming the model projections in terms of strength and propagation rate and there are signs it will continue to do so for at least a little longer, so that ought to help get that extra sharpness to the trough into place. As far as I can deduce, that's part of what tight isobar was referring to late yesterday morning. First half of summer, we became used to patterns that the models can resolve relatively easily as it was just a case of extending the general pattern forward. Now, the models are seeking to resolve the manner in which a whole new pattern manifests at the expense of the old one. They always struggle with that, and often until frustratingly late notice.
  6. Looking closely, the main instability is still west of the UK on day 10 of the 12z ECM (rainfall charts support this deduction). So that's good consistency with the 00z run as opposed to GFS' wild flailing (let alone GEM... it's 12z is quite simply unbelievably flat!). The movement of the Azores high away from the islands of namesake fits well with the Nino background, hence my believe that the flatter GFS and GEM solutions must be based on more in the way of conflicting tropical activity taking place (such as trade wind bursts). With our most reliable source of settled weather suppressed, it comes down to how much ridging can occur from the UK eastward. With lots of hot air in place, the models will struggle to resolve this, as they tend to get a bit too excitable (i.e trigger-happy with LP formation) when so much energy is available to potentially be destabilised. I'd not be surprised to see a crazy ECM run or two over the coming 4-5 days in which a LP from the south suddenly becomes very intense for the time of year; it did that a couple of times during plume scenarios last year. Some kind of feedback issue. Unless the update back in March has sorted that out, which is certainly possible!
  7. The disappearance of the mid-Atlantic amplification/highly meridional jet on the 12z GFS and GEM literally had me doing a slow facepalm - I’d hoped we’d left that sort of runs behind with the big AAM climb reliably represented. There must still be some variability in the trades causing issues. Perhaps the onset of a plume-like pattern could actually be delayed toward later next week. Just a possibility - let’s see what the ECM 12z does. Big implications for the mean CET this month (near average temps causing a gradual slide toward a warm final figure, vs well above average temps keeping it very warm or even increasing it a little).
  8. Singularity

    Measuring air temp. Official Met. Observations

    Great read, thanks for sharing. It's funny really, how our official measurements are of conditions that most of us don't experience very often, but of course the point of it is to capture the weather in its 'rawest' form with the least possible modification by humans (excepting the large-scale effects of added CO2 etc). This does mean, though, that there's some value to those unofficial readings from a 'what most of us experience' perspective, provided they're not taken in direct sunlight. Hence I find sites that display those to be of some use when gauging what to expect when heading away from home for a day trip.
  9. A bit sceptical of how weak the ridging is this weekend from the ECM 12z, but the general outcome fits to today's major trend to increase SLP and as a result reduce instability for Tuesday through to at least 9 days from now. Result being that after tomorrow's decaying front, any rainfall looks to be in the form of localised showers. I'm still keeping an open mind on that drifting low Wed-Fri as it could still feasibly adjust back east and affect us more, but the chances have been reducing with each new set of runs today. Good old tropical signals. After a rough time a couple of winters back (misbehaving QBO a major contributor to that), they've been faring well at providing guidance as to what the direction of travel will most likely be in the modelling. A pretty nice high-AAM orbit here; not too high (as with pretty much everything, some moderation is needed for the best results!), but enough to significantly affect our weather patterns in pleasing ways (unless you don't enjoy high temperatures!).
  10. Seems that as the models have come to terms with the Nino background overriding the trade wind burst, they’ve adjusted the Wed-Fri low west and made it weaker, and increased the ridging from the Azores for the weekend. The combined effect on the GFS 12z for example is to take the more organised rain associated with the Wed-Fri low west of all but N Ireland and then to take until 30th July to produce more than localised useful amounts of rainfall... and even that is dubious as it’s from thunderstorm in a slack environment so would be more hit-and-miss in reality. Even though such significant adjustments were-signposted by teleconnection theory, it’s quite something to see such a scarcity of useful rainfall becoming favoured even for what should be the least ridge-friendly week of the month (this coming one, I mean) - though there’s still time for that Wed-Fri low to adjust back to a track across the UK; not a done deal yet.
  11. The Azores High looks to have one last rally around Friday, with a ridge extending across the UK, but this then evolves into more of an independent anticyclone as the Azores High becomes suppressed as part of the switch toward a Nino atmospheric state. It’s then that we look to how well ridging can hold on across our lands in the face of Atlantic lows attempting to approach from the W or SW. We can fare pretty well from this setup in the second half of July and well into August - something many recent long range models have been strongly hinting at. This doesn’t necessarily translate to long spells of sunny weather like we’ve seen in May-June, though; those troughs are likely to get close enough from time to time to introduce some instability i.e downpour/thunderstorm potential. Maybe even a more organised spell of rain on one or two occasions. On the other hand, the air movements will be more supportive of hot air imports from the near continent. So I’m seeing high potential for shorter (which could still be up to 5 or so days at a time) but more intense heatwaves compared to summer so far. Also more rainfall in between, which will please some.
  12. Even ECM has now adjusted it's extra diving low such that it's only a glancing blow rather than a direct hit on the UK. Generally, the trend is toward increased SLP Fri-Sun. That's a good starting point from which to build a more 'plume-flavoured' second half to the summer. As odd as the GFS 12z looks in lower-res with the unusual Scandinavian high positioning, the overall principle of a big area of very warm air enveloping NW. Europe and the UK and the Atlantic struggling to achieve much more than give rise to occasional thundery intrusions is very sound when considering the background signals that Tamara has often discussed in her excellent updates. With this in mind, I'm wondering how much rain will actually be seen in the S and SE from the more changeable spell when all's said and done. Some have already seen a fair bit, but many hardly anything, and the ARPEGE 12z out to next Wednesday evening doesn't indicate much more to come; ...leaving us reliant once again on heavy, slow-moving downpour potential next Thu-Fri (which ECM actually avoids in favour of more mobile showers via that stronger low brushing past the NE; more of a flow across the UK). For the record, the changeable spell has so far delivered to me 0.2 mm of rain, and today was sunny from dawn until dusk!
  13. At last, the models are mor consistently reading the UK-Euro-Scandi(ish) ridge signal for about a week from now onward. The main uncertainties now are the strength and exact path of the low drifting around in our vicinity midweek - could bring anything from isolated showers to a long spell of rain - and how quickly the associated upper low clears away later in the week to allow high pressure from the SW or SSW to displace or dissipate the surface low.
  14. Less of a lingering LP by eastern parts for the middle part of the week on the 12z GFS. Meanwhile that trough diving down well west of Europe is in about the same position but slightly better defined compared to the 06z on the left: This setup leaves 'space' for a ridge to build across the UK Thu-Sat. It's a bit of a feeble attempt on this particular run, so still a few showers knocking about at times, but overall this is a drier run than the 06z and much drier than the 00z - while still delivering useful amounts of rain for many of us. Longer-term, well, GFS still seems to be giving the trade wind burst an incredibly strong and long-lived influence over our weather, as the 12z it makes for yet another run depicting a classic Nina-like summer pattern signal at a time when we're looking for entirely the opposite flavour!
  15. Singularity

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    It's fascinating to see a melt season seemingly dominated by 'sloshing' mechanisms as the ocean waters are stirred up by unusually persistent trough activity across the basin. With all the cloud cover in the way, it's hard to track this process reliably and be sure just how much, or how little, damage is being done to the ice on the Canadian side in particular. It's still more of a solar-induced setup on the Eurasian side, but not as much so as it was a month ago. Seems like the ice will either become so thin in the likes of the Beaufort that it totally falls apart, or it will have just enough left in it to form a lattice that could in theory allow a fast recovery during the freezing season. Unless, that is, there's deep storm activity in effect - and this has higher than usual potential due to situations such as the Laptev ice holding on unusually long next to a roasting continent, and the overall colder Canadian/warmer Eurasian side pattern that's becoming increasingly stark as time goes on. Much contemplation warranted (but unfortunately not exercised very often on my part due to work demands!).
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