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Singularity

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Singularity last won the day on March 9 2016

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About Singularity

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    MSc Meteorology

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    Male
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    New Forest (Western)
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    Meteorology - Science and Observations | Cycling - On and Off Road | Walking or Hiking | Electronic Music Creation
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    The Extremes! Passionate Hater of Drizzle.

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  1. Sorry, could you make that 9.4*C with 77 mm, if a correction is allowed? Cheers
  2. Signals are mixed temp-wise, perhaps a lot of swings during the month - a behaviour that tends to result in above average rainfall. So I'll go for a very boring 8.7*C and an uninspiring (unless you imagine it mostly coming from thunderstorms!) 77 mm, thanks.
  3. Arctic melt Season 2018

    Right across the exceptionally low Bering sea ice. I am seeing talk of anomalous warmth ahead of it on southerly winds which may result in mostly open water in the Bering by the time the strong highs take shape. So if something at least loosely akin to the above pattern does develop, the stage will be set for an extraordinary amount of energy input into the Arctic waters on that side for the time of year. With anything less than a very cloudy summer over there, I wonder just how high the heat content could go by Aug-Sep if this potential event takes place? - which brings to mind how educational it will be to see to what extent such early open water leads to moisture feedbacks that increase cloudiness and encourage more LP development. Especially if GW's proposed low solar links to more high-latitude blocking prove to be along the right lines. Not sure if I should be posting attachments across from the ASI site but here's the Bering-Chukchi region showing signs of breakup that weren't observed until 3-4 weeks later in 2017.
  4. As far as I'm aware, a weak polar vortex located over Siberia is pretty much the ultimate setup for placing deep cold airmasses E/NE of the UK and then allowing ridges from the Atlantic sector to pull some of that SW or W toward and potentially right across the UK. Sadly for those who prefer this to happen in the heart of winter, only the most powerful vortex splitting events are able to bring about such a weak vortex in that area during Dec-Feb, yet due to the seasonal warming-out, it only takes a weak event to do so in late March or early April. Anyway - combined with albedo feedback from the extensive snow cover across NE Europe and W. Russia, it means we're at risk of unusually cold air imports until either the vortex fully winds down and stops drawing deep cold together beneath it, or the cold air warms out under the increasingly strong sun, or tropical forcing such as the MJO can force the ridges from the Atlantic to stay at lower latitudes. The warming of the global climate will be focused away from the N. Europe to NW. Asia regions during this time, hence it's not out of the question for record levels of cold to be challenged in these areas. I am of course just highlighting the potential here; even with the higher than usual risk, there's still quite a good chance of escaping another import of air as anomalously cold as we've received twice this month already. The ensembles do have me concerned for the welfare of our wildlife though!
  5. More like 'game paused' (until this evening) - but not without a heavier burst beforehand judging by what's approaching you from the SE. Also, I'd not be surprised to see a few showers on and off for the rest of the day, so even the 'pause' my not be absolute.
  6. Snow turned fine and powdery here at around half 7 as the line of heavier stuff through the likes of Bournemouth is just out of reach to the south. Given I have several inches on the ground and can see a good deal more out to my SE, I'm not too bothered though Amazing just how poorly the models have handled the mechanism of the upper flow around the low converging with the lower easterly flow to keep producing snow on the eastern flank of the low. Judging by the latest HIRLAM and GFS this could continue for most of today, before it steps back up a gear for at least a few hours tonight. With local modification of air temps under the still cold flow I can see off-road lying snow across the CS region lasting until at least mid-morning Tuesday, perhaps 12-24 hours longer in sheltered spots.
  7. Near an inch on the grass, half that on cars, but none on roads and only patchy traces on pavements. Makes for a nice colour palette
  8. Still quite light snow here but it has reached the 'nestled' stage on the lawn; the spaces between the blades of grass are filled with snow now. Just saw a line of about a dozen people walk by outside in heavy winter gear, fellow enthusiasts I wonder?
  9. Many of the high-res models show a localised higher snowfall rate over the New Forest tonight so depending on how the roads end up it could be a very interesting day for getting out in that area tomorrow. I happen to be within walking distance but that is talking 7-8 miles through snow so quite the adventure to take on... .
  10. Sorry to hear that @wiltshire weather, I have been thinking the winds are pretty strong today. It's turned darker here now with some large flakes whirling about. The Dean Hill radar is messing up within a triangular region to the NE of here as usual so I am left with little advance warning as to what's coming my way. Makes it even more fun .
  11. Aw Karlos, you gone broke the game! Brightened up a bit now, still a few wandering flakes in the wind.
  12. Unfortunately I have not come across The Weather's email address or postal code by which to let it know your desires . Wet surfaces all over the place here too, which will likely freeze up overnight - but hopefully in the process of becoming part of a lying snow layer, rather than as a thin sheet onto which the snow then settles.
  13. Came down impressively heavy for about 20 minutes here, which with a strong east wind made for genuine blizzard conditions. Stuck well to windward objects and tufts of grass but has undergone some melting since the heavier rates ceased. Past experience suggests it takes at least half an hour of persistently heavy snow for the drawing of energy out of the ground by the melting flakes to bring the ground surface temp down to freezing and allow lying snow to hang about for more than 10 mins.
  14. Really neat to watch the streamer-type snow chasing the front south while reaching ever-further west as the cold air aloft surges across. It will be interesting to see what the balance of play is between drier air and greater vertical instability as that colder air interacts with the front. Had some impressive wind gusts here so far today for an easterly flow; not far short of 50 mph. Few flakes in that wind too.
  15. Well you know what, the frequency and intensity of showers piling in off the N Sea is well beyond any model predictions I've seen, so if the flow behaves well enough for a bit of Thames streamer action behind the frontal boundary, there could be a good few cm for some in the east of our region ahead of the overnight potential. As for what goes on overnight and through tomorrow, still very wide model spread there, with WRF-NMM tending to focus more on CS England, while HIRLAM hammers the western parts hardest (but not without a fair bit for the east too, as already noted by others). ECM now hammers the whole region with heavy snow for a time, but western parts for longest (BA's red warning inspiration?). From that I can see the amber warning being extended across to the Solent area, and yes, a red seems a good shout for inland Devon and Cornwall.
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