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Singularity

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Singularity last won the day on March 9 2016

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About Singularity

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    MSc Meteorology

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    New Forest (Western)
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    Meteorology - Science and Observations | Cycling - On and Off Road | Walking or Hiking | Electronic Music Creation
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    The Extremes! Passionate Hater of Drizzle.

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  1. So let's get this straight - with a little assumption regarding the uppers not reducing unusually quickly during next Saturday afternoon, the ECM 12z run has the 15*C 850 hPa isotherm visiting the UK on three days out of the week starting Saturday (or Sunday if you like). We've had a hard time getting that to happen in a number of recent Julys (not this year's though, thankfully) so it seems pretty extraordinary to me.
  2. The anomaly pattern still seems oddly inconsistent across the region. Starting to see some values near -2*C now though and with that trades outlook these should expand. Will it be enough to prevent October from having the warmest troposphere on record for the globally? I was amazed to see that September managed this feat but the negative equatorial anomalies were less intense back then. In our little part of the world, retracing ridge tendencies could make for some interesting weather patterns by late Oct, though this does not necessarily tie in with height rises far N. enough in the Atlantic to deliver much of wintry interest; for that the Arctic profile needs to behave nicely. That detail is still unclear at this range.
  3. A shallow trough dangling down west of ex-Ophelia interacts with it enough to keep its core west of most of the UK on the GFS 12z, but the 12z UKMO sees less interaction with the core moving through Scotland, while ECM has less still and takes it through the heart of the UK. Thankfully, the system is weakening rapidly during this translation across our lands, but it still delivers a heavy blow to Ireland and a strong one to SW UK (ECM) or W. Wales (UKMO), along with some heavy rain. The Euro High soon shrugs this off in the ECM 12z though. What is it with this resilient ridge I wonder - could all that warm air that keeps getting thrown across at the upper levels and then slowing down be tending to sink and support increased SLP over the region? I'm not entirely sure of thermodynamics permits such a mechanism.
  4. A slight reduction in the forward motion of Ophelia allows the plume to stick around a few hours longer on Monday. Optimal setup for maximising temps. In fact, given that back in May this year GFS fell a few degrees short with the highest temps when conditions were warm but very breezy, I'd not rule out a localised 25*C this side of the Channel. Incredible to see France largely in the mid-high 20s, let alone having already spent the weekend hitting the mid-20s widely. This push back of the Euro High on Tuesday seemed to spring up quite suddenly yesterday evening, and while the 12z applies more pressure from the Atlantic troughs than the previous two runs, this only serves to place us under tight pressure gradients for a time before the ridge winds out anyway - albeit with some cooler air cutting in rather than the balmy setup of what was a pretty extraordinary 06z in terms of implications for the month-mean temperatures. Hopefully this sneaky 'attack of the Euro High' is not a trend that will still be with us a month from now (as much as GloSea5 seems to think it will be... how dare it eh?).
  5. If only it was January eh? Bit of a departure from recent det. runs of both this and GFS so just a wildcard at least for the time being. Much more concerning matters to deal with in the nearer-term, first in a positive sense if you like a late burst of warmth, and then negative for western Ireland potentially (and who knows, maybe a bit further east as the path may still shift by up to 100 miles one way or the other - although either westward or little change both seem more likely than eastward due to the Euro ridge looking quite impressive). The tropospheric vortex sure seems to be having a bit of trouble getting its act together this month - but this taking place in October means little of significance for the winter as was made apparent following informative discussions not long ago in the stratosphere thread.
  6. Some quite impressive warmth building across W. and C. France on this run, with support from the preceding 00z plus the 00z ECM. If we could just get a more direct feed from the south on the day... but that's being greedy I know! As far as I'm concerned a late reminder of summer is perfectly fine in October, before my opinion steadily inverts itself as November progresses (early cold in that month rarely cuts the mustard all the way down here).
  7. Interesting to note the weak vortex spell in October that year too. It would take a lot to prevent a recovery to near-average at some point which from the looks of things ought to be enough for a sufficient magnitude of breakdown. Looking for a nice clean split for a change rather than the messy developments of last winter and the unhelpful displacements of the one before that (we sure have been through a lot of frustrating shortfalls in recent winters...).
  8. Another key aspect last winter was long periods of moderate-strength stratospheric warming with positive height anomalies frequently having some but not a lot of influence on tropospheric patterns... yet still enough to - ironically I suppose - interfere with the vertical wave activity needed to produce a bigger, more effective warming event. Or at least, that's what J. Cohen deduced from how things panned out.... he's not had the best track record these past few winters so there's no guarantee that this is an entirely valid theory. What do others make of it? TIA If it does hold truth then I will have some concern if the vortex is consistently very weak from early on as this seemed to be what facilitated the long-duration-yet-weak-magnitude warming tendency of last winter. Just my take on things though!
  9. Very interesting that just as with last year, we're seeing a lot of heat flux into the Arctic troposphere and with subsequent vertical wave activity flux modelled to disrupt the formation of the polar vortex. Under the new 'oceanic Arctic climate' that may well have established, this troubled vortex formation could well become the new 'normal'. Too early to be sure about that climatic shift though; a few years prior to last started off about as balmy in the Arctic but then dropped nearer to typical temperature setups. If the weather patterns continue to bring a lot of heat poleward and then upward through to late autumn then it will be time to start wondering just what might transpire given that last year some promising developments were scuppered primarily by an exceptionally strong westerly QBO (and perhaps a bit of solar forcing) which allowed the vortex to exploit a relatively brief lull in wave activity forcing to spin up furiously and achieve a state capable of taking on a lot of warming events with barely a wobble. Given shortfalls in handling poleward heat flux into the Arctic, I don't expect the models to do very well at spotting whether we will have a disheveled vortex as we start the winter. Lots of waiting and seeing to come. I will occasionally comment but will have to be far more restrained than last winter due to work commitments. 7 winters now without satisfactory duration and/or intensity of cold & snowy weather here in S. England. Here's hoping for an overdue change of fortunes!
  10. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Some sizeable ups and downs more or less equaling out anomaly wise; 10.7*C is my guesstimate for this month .
  11. Hurricane Maria

    Ugh. Just caught up on this as I'm on holiday... well let's just say sometimes it's not nice at all to have called something right; my points a couple of days ago about the underlying structure concerning me have unfortunately proved highly applicable to this particular TC (I've seen a few break the rules in seasons past). It just seems that once a broad rotation with some spiral banding establishes, any system that is expected to encounter more favourable conditions ahead of it than were in place during the establishment of structure is liable to intensify rapidly unless a combination of dry air and moderate-to-strong wind shear can tear into its core. We had the former two days ago but wind shear was insufficient to drive that into the core of Maria. So it is that we are again faced with a destruction-laden recent past and events equally or perhaps more so to come depending on whether Maria weakens much (if at all) before then next landfall (assuming no major deviations from NHC guidance on track). There may be an EWRC getting underway at the mo. If so the duration will be important - worst case scenario is a fast replacement leaving time for full utilisation of oceanic heat content plus low shear and decent humidity prior to landfall, having expanded the wind field during the EWRC. Here's hoping such efficiency is not achieved.
  12. Hurricane Maria

    Well I don't like the look of this one bit; with very favourable conditions for development likely over the next 4-5 days, all Maria had to do was sort out a good structure and based on the past few hours of satellite imaginary that's just what has happened. The 'wrapping-up comma' shape is a bad omen. Given model limitations and what happened with Irma I'd not be surprised to wake up to a hurricane tomorrow that then steadily marches toward major status over the following day or two. The best possibility for this not to occur is if the low level centre is now as well aligned with the mid-level as would be expected in the current low-shear environment. Back in the seasons 2013-15 this was almost a given (oddly so) but this year is playing by very sifferent rules so I'd go as far as to call it a minor miracle if it turns out to be the case. Worst part of all this is, even a low-end hurricane will be a lot of trouble if it tracks across the northern Leewards and co. Small chance based on typical modelling errors of a track further south and then on to the NW Caribbean... but then the likes of Florida come under threat which is also very troubling. There's been too many of these 'ominous evenings' this season... and we're only halfway through the climatological duration!
  13. Hurricane Irma

    Good luck to them all. I'm going to peel myself away from this for a while... it's been quite the day (and week, in fact fortnight!) for tracking tropical cyclones.
  14. Hurricane Irma

    Good point, for some reason I lost the ability to see blue colours for a moment there but yes, if it continues, it's bad news in big ways.
  15. Hurricane Irma

    Scary. This sort of thing is why I said 'overall' impacts earlier... for every winner there's usually a loser
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