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Singularity last won the day on September 14 2018

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    New Forest (Western)
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    Meteorology - Science and Observations | Cycling - On and Off Road | Walking or Hiking | Electronic Music Creation
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    Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.

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  1. UKMO day 7 is more akin to GFS than ECM and EPS don’t seem very keen to drop a low in so I daresay the scenario of mainly dry and warm conditions continuing for England & perhaps Wales right through next weekend is the favourite. Some blips in there though - rain affecting the middle slice late today through tomorrow, which looks distinctly cool in that region, then probably a decaying front crossing NW-SE on Fri, unless GFS proves right to stall it in the north and dismantle it there.
  2. Some steep temperature gradients being modelled as the ‘cool pool’ moves through. After my comment yesterday it has now shifted slightly southeast - classic! Also the lowest 850s have raised by a degree or two. Now looking possible that while the southeast sees a fresh breeze and low 20s at best (lower by coast), areas as close as The Midlands could still be enjoying mid-20s maximums widely through Fri-Sat. A loose continuation of this summer’s ‘upside down’ theme - but at least it’s generally dry now!
  3. I keep expecting to see the cool air adjusted to the southeast of the UK for Fri-Sat but as we’re not in winter it appears a perfect easterly alignment is on the cards . It might, at least, bring dry enough air that cloud cover is limited away from eastern coasts. In the west it really could be a glorious last hurrah for the meteorological summer.
  4. I believe next week could be a good deal warmer for most (away from east coast£ than some seem to be assuming on here, when accounting for the typical underestimation of temperature response to sunshine. Even this week with so much cloud around, there have been places reaching 2-3*C above the model numbers in response to an hour or two of sunshine. So, I’d not be surprised to see mid-20s maximums quite widely Mon-Wed and perhaps beyond if an ECM 12z style outcome occurs i.e. no undercut of cooler air from the northeast. Nights, on the other hand, could be a little cooler than average, depending on how much the additional daytime warmth factors in (in my experience it can add a degree or so but it’s not at all reliable. Sometimes the nights even turn out cooler despite warmer days!).
  5. Yes anything with respect to the 500 mb level. It’s a bit of a loose guide mind - on reflection I think the tilt could be as little as 50 miles sometimes. Anomalies can give us a good idea where an extension of a subtropical high will end up if they’re strong ones, while weaker ones can be a decent guide for high latitude blocking provided there are negative anomalies to the southwest/south/southeast to indicate a high independent of the subtropical ridges. - - - - - - - I see the GFS 06z has asked the question ‘is ECM onto something after all?’. 12z runs will be important today I feel - yesterday GFS’ 06z run also explored the sneaky breakaway low idea only for the 12z to revert. I still suspect it’s later in the last week of the month that the tropical influences will be more supportive of a plume scenario. Could be another classic case of models being too quick with the Atlantic-Europe response when the change in the tropics is first picked up on. It’s not the most emphatic of forcing from there, though. I’ve yet to see a plume setup as being more likely than not. More likely we see some mostly pleasantly warm to very warm weather across a good portion of the UK as high pressure shuffles about in our vicinity.
  6. Some people seem to have no idea how ‘possibility‘ works. Anyway, the balance is still in favour of a very warm weekend, with ECM some way outside the pack. Cant discount it though, as the key difference - a low peeling away eastward from the main trough - takes shape at just 96 hours range. Either way, it wouldn’t be that surprising to see the high set up a bit west of the UK early the following week, as that does fall within the ensemble spread of late. What would be surprising would be a lack of subsequent eastward drift to said high. Whether that leads to a plume setup or not is then a matter of how the high orientates. The way I see it, it remains an above normal probability but nothing more, just something worth keeping an eye on for now.
  7. Surface highs are most supported a little east of the 500 mb ridge, by around 200-400 miles I believe, due to a tilt to the atmosphere imposed by the spin of the Earth. I think the ECM 00z is right to question a plume setup establishing as soon as next Sunday (seems a bit quick relative to the tropical events), but probably went a bit far with toning down the preceding high pressure development across the UK.
  8. I imagine you mean develop blocking to our north as we don’t have that currently. Not that they actually do so anyway - shown by the red dotted lines here is a positive anomaly to the north, not the ridge itself. That’s the northward bulge in the green lines, which indicates support for surface high pressure beneath. Axis of that roughly Iberia to North Sea so ECM 12z day 10 would be a fit when accounting for the NOAA chart covering all of 8-14 days. Note also the trough well positioned to our west for driving very warm or hot air northward across Western Europe. Honestly, recent trends have begun to ring an alarm bell labelled ‘that record-threatening heat might pay us a late summer visit’. Of course even if it does, we’re unlikely to challenge the summer records so late on - but mid-30s would not be out of the question even outside of the usual hotspots. Sensible hat says, a direct hit is still a low probability - but having it on the table at all is significant.
  9. Watching ensemble trends and considering the tropical / AAM developments recently summarised by Tamara, I have an increasing feeling that the final week of August will transport some of the currently exceptionally hot airmass to our south in our direction. Thankfully it will likely have moderated a bit by then, while shortening days will further limit the potential heat in the UK. Still - if we got a direct hit (which I’m NOT saying will happen, just a plausible scenario), we could see summer 2021’s highest temps occur right near the end. Personally, I’d rather we instead saw that hot air have an indirect influence by further inflating high pressure overhead to give us an extended dry and very warm spell. Also plausible .
  10. Worth noting that we now have a big negative mountain torque underway, following a big positive one. Models tend to be overly sensitive to these with some runs getting carried away - we saw it one way with some model runs that were mainly dry and warm next week, now we’re seeing it the other with some runs that keep high pressure to our west or even northwest right through the week. The middle ground of those is probably the best guide, especially given that the ensemble means continue to support it well. That being HP very influential from the west by Wed with temps near average, then building across further during the rest of the week with temps starting to climb higher.
  11. The Atlantic low has shifted back west now, in fact GFS has adjusted by a considerable margin at just 5 days range. This adds to the interest as the AAM cycle reaches the declining stage and the summer NAO tends toward negative. Sometimes, this takes a shape loosely akin to a ‘west-based’ negative winter NAO, if there’s an Atlantic low west of the UK. Key difference to winter is that said low tends to break down into smaller, potentially cut-off lows. Whether they then stall to the west of Europe or not then determines whether the UK sees some very warm or hot (e.g. GFS 12z in south, yesterday’s ECM 12z more widely) or unseasonably cool (ECM 00z) weather.
  12. The 12z ECM is not without interest, developing very warm conditions in southern parts and sustaining them through the weekend and into the week after. The way it drops a cut-off low down west of Europe is eerily reminiscent of the trigger for last year's (intense in the south) August heatwave. For some insight on what makes this sort of outcome at all feasible despite a background that favours a more limited amount of dry or very warm weather, I've made a Twitter thread on the connection to AAM, following a summary of how it connected to our weather patterns in July:
  13. The prospective development of Azores-Scandinavia ridging during week 2 of August looks to be largely in response to the MJO crossing phase 8 while staying active. GEFS have been most keen on it while EPS have slowly been coming around. Longevity will depend on what the MJO does next - if it decides to throw a party over the Indian Ocean then we may struggle to keep fine weather through to end of week 3. If it doesn’t... who knows, it could be decent for most parts until late month .
  14. How fortunate we’ve been that the CAB and Pacific side have seen relatively cool, cloudy conditions in high summer. There was unusually thin CAB ice and thicker ice displaced from there into the Beaufort where it could have been subjected to stronger melt forcing than would be possible over the CAB. Only as we reach about a week into August do we look to see a shift for the Pacific side. Forecast models have high pressure and unusually warm air moving across there from the Siberian side. The anticyclone coulda be exceptional if ECM is near the mark. Question is, is it too late now for significant solar insulation? Perhaps not, in the southern Beaufort & Chukchi regions. In any case, the warmth should leave its mark - but with the ice coverage currently well above the recent norm, that may only serve to bring the situation there close to average. Time will tell.
  15. Some model runs continue to explore the more active MJO scenario but overall, after an encouraging couple of days, support is now dwindling. I hate to say it, but IMO, the probability of a settled spell within the first half of August has dropped to the low range. I'd been hoping that we'd see the usual MJO underestimation play out and don't get me wrong, it still could, but seekers of warm & dry weather, I advise keeping feet firmly on the ground. Maybe even glued down! At least the weather will be 'interesting', as there looks to be an emphasis on showers rather than frequent frontal rainfall, at least for the next week or so. I feel sorry for those who've already had to contend with flash flooding or are at high risk following recent wet weather, though!
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