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Singularity last won the day on September 14

Singularity had the most liked content!

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About Singularity

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    MSc Meteorology

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    New Forest (Western)
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    Meteorology - Science and Observations | Cycling - On and Off Road | Walking or Hiking | Electronic Music Creation
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    The Extremes! Passionate Hater of Drizzle.

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  1. Seems to be all about how cleanly a disturbance splits away from the main trough out to our WSW next weekend. At +120 I must admit I feared UKMO was going to follow GFS with a clean split (but with the storm crossing us less potent) but +144 revealed just enough low heights being held back to keep the Atlantic trough - Euro ridge combination in place and even allow that ridge to edge toward the UK more. Really interesting how the ECM 00z hardly manages to split anything away at all, with the main trough still alive and well right through into next week before yet again it shows the pattern flattening (which given caution over GWO projections may be the more realistic outcome). Some considerably warm air aloft for a time but the raw data only peaks low-mid 20s, on the Monday. The maritime airmass origin leads to a lot of cloud cover. More balmy nights are the most notable result. For next week onward ECM and GFS are mostly some 5-8*C different in terms of mean temps .
  2. So ECM sided with UKMO over GFS for the weekend - a warn blast remains as much on the table as a chilly one. Looking into the following week, though, you can really see the seasonal changes coming into play as cold air becomes more widespread in the far-N. Atlantic and it becomes harder and harder to avoid a properly unsettled run of weather. While still in September, and upward kick in AAM is still a potential means of achieving much in the way of settled conditions. The models generally remain keen on this happening, but sadly, they have been persistently overestimating on this front for about a month now, so it's hard to have much confidence in high pressure gaining the upper hand for more than the odd day or two during the next 8-14 days. I know, though, that an increasing number on here will not be displeased at this; those who enjoy the wilder side of the autumn season. By late October I typically jump into that bandwagon (until if and when wintry weather becomes a reasonable prospect... or we arrive at next spring... 2013-14 comes to mind!), but before then I still prefer light winds and warm sunshine - perhaps I was originally destined for the Mediterranean but got misdirected along the way into this world .
  3. The situation this coming weekend strikes me as being one of high potential development but in a direction that's unclear and susceptible to the slightest of variations in the balance of play; signs are some amplification to the flow may kick in while there's a strong ridge trying to build from the south, and this can result in anything from a major plume to a chilly northerly-type flow... as GEM and GFS handily illustrate this evening. I really hope GFS is just going feedback-crazy with those Thursday and weekend storms; they look potentially very damaging to the still leafy deciduous trees of our lands. That being said, recent over-enthusiasm for sending the atmosphere on a high-amplitude GWO orbit leads me to be sceptical of so much amplification taking place. The flatter ECM 00z may be a better guide in light of this. Less exciting for sure, but that's just how it goes sometimes.
  4. Met Office issue a warning that includes western parts of mainland UK and right on cue, GFS 06z adjusts furthest west of any run from that model so far. Serious hat on - the MO are right to include western UK as there's not only hurricane Helene but also subtropical storm Joyce consider as well when it comes to the track that this bout of unusually strong winds (for the time of year at least) will take. Longer-term, the signal for a notable build of high pressure from the southwest keeps turning up, but the details are varying a lot; With only a weak, stuttering tropical cycle to guide things, the knock-on effects of variations in tropical/subtropical cyclone movement are especially large, and it's hard to place much confidence in any particular solution, particularly given that the models keep seeing more of a tropical cycle emerging in the near-term than is actually observed; a persistent error that's been ongoing since mid-August.
  5. The increasing AAM and GWO phase 3-4 move is a part of the equation, but also uncertain in terms of how far it goes. Generally I'm of the impression that the bigger the AAM climb, the further west Helene is likely to track as a result of the Atlantic trough being sharpened up. While waiting for the models to figure that out, I'm having some strong Ophelia flashbacks looking at this! Strangely, the rain distribution becomes more like a major hurricane as the storm reaches this point, having only resembled an 'angry blob' beforehand. Given what we saw last October, perhaps the increasing Coriolis effect while moving over unusually warm SSTs allows this gain in organisation and strength even as the SSTs lower. If it wasn't for what Ophelia did, I'd be throwing out any notion of a major hurricane making it so close to the UK. How times have changed!
  6. Well, it's nice to see the actual AAM finally trending positive and the GWO on a phase 3-4 movement, after the concerns of recent days with the observations refusing to follow the model simulations. Even now, how much AAM rise occurs is questionable - but even a little bit may well be enough to direct ex-Helene in a manner that's very conducive to large-scale warm air advection across the UK from the SSW or S. The tropical infusion results in an exceptionally warm night or two in recent ECM and GFS runs. The early Wed temps on the 06z GFS aren't far off the long-term average maximums for mid-September. Once ex-Helene has moved through, the main question is then to what extent the Atlantic trough, boosted by the tropical infusion, is able to overpower the Euro ridge. I expect GFS is displaying some classic bias with that, but ECM may be too, i.e. while the former is too progressive, the latter might not be progressive enough. The balance of power here will have a huge effect on UK temperatures.
  7. In the broadest possible sense, ENSO phases encourage certain weather patterns to occur more often then others, but still within a cycle of patterns that means monthly means tend not to capture the relationship (let alone seasonal means!) and even weekly means can struggle unless they're very accurately selected. On top of that, there are shifts from one month to the next owing to the ever-changing thermal gradient magnitudes and patterns, as the seasons interchange and yes, interference from other phenomena can also result in short-term variations on the theme. It really is no wonder that weather forecasting is such a demanding business and one that has to allow for quite a lot of error beyond 4-5 days range (and sometimes even within that).
  8. ECM playing with the idea of bringing a son-of-Ophelia... that'd be quite something to have two such intense hurricanes so far (indeed, record-breakingly far) north and east, two years running. SST anomalies indicate that it could be done if the storm was to take such a track - but it's way too far out to consider this seriously at the moment. That aside, the impacts of the Arctic sea ice on the N. Hemisphere cold air distribution is catching my eye already; there's an unusually intense focusing around Greenland/NE Canada as the usual polar vortex-friendly Arctic ocean is still too 'warm' what with all the extra open ocean around. This could lead to more ridging from the southwest than usual for a Nina-like atmospheric state, much as we saw May-June this year, but on the other hand, seasonal differences to back then may allow the Atlantic storms to come raging on in across at least the northwest of the UK. I sense that we're going to need some strong attacks on the vortex to prevent it dominating proceedings from that position to our NW (be that via downstream ridges or troughs firing across us) in the coming months.
  9. Hmm. Hints that maybe hurricane Florence could trigger upstream amplification soon enough that the main Atlantic trough stalls far west enough for some European ridge action. Should the trough then drop south as amplification increases further, well, the GFS 06z shows perhaps the most extreme result . Trouble is, it's possible that Florence could avoid the recurving path and nullify those downstream impacts on our weather, though the latest modelling does favour that strongly, even if it hits the US, as a 'scraping' impact is being indicated; crossing the Carolinas or thereabouts in an arc before exiting to the ENE or NE. The late stages of the GFS 06z run are why I'm glad it still goes out past +10 days despite the poor reliability .
  10. Much appreciated @Man With Beard, I also greatly enjoy your style of writing and contribution to the forum . This morning I'm looking at the UKMO 00z and wondering if there's still a chance the models have just been overreacting to the increased thermal gradient in the North Atlantic. Then again, that main trough making it so far east is clearly a big issue regardless. What's needed is some lowering of heights over or a little east of the Azores to shift the jet stream back to a SW-NE orientation, and then for the Atlantic-European sector amplification response to the increasing AAM to kick in. Without that first step, we run the risk of ridges building more west of the UK at least for a time (GWO cycle should still force it eastward at some point or other). Reading their recent updates, I can see that the Met Office aren't faring much better against this model volatility, though if we do see a reversion to more settled and warmer next week, that will shed them in a better light again.
  11. Much like with the second half of August, there's a nasty sense that something's just not quite right with the weather patterns. Currently, I can see AAM projected to rise, with the GWO getting moving through phase 5 in the coming week, and there is some eastern Pacific to tropical Atlantic MJO activity being indicated, but the model trends for next week are taking the historical precedent for the atmospheric response to such developments and, er, plopping on them. An increasingly vigorous Atlantic jet, flattening ridges as they attempt to build across the UK and NW Europe, is the opposite to the usual response. For a possible cause, I am tempted to simply look to the big uptick in Atlantic basin tropical-extratropical cyclone movement, but this is not a clear solution; while this can increase the thermal gradient and boost the jet stream, it can also supply large amounts of anomalously warm air aloft that then sinks down at the mid-high latitudes and lead to unusually strong ridges that can move across the UK. The ECM 12z of yesterday showed such an outcome at the end of its range. GFS 12z of today does also feature such an eventuality following a brief exploration of the flatter jet outcome, but with the ridge out west of the UK - hence the unseasonably cool (if, IMO, overly dramatic) day 10-16 output from that run. In that we see the nature of these tropical-extratropical cyclone movements. They can abruptly change our weather in a wide variety of ways, and potentially for quite some time (ex-Bertha, 2014, had impacts that kept August of that year cool and often showery for several weeks). That being said, unless the modelling of an emerging El Nino and appropriate atmospheric response turns out to be a total misfire - which is sadly not out of the question - then there ought to be some fight back of the weather patterns against flattening ridges and driving cool air into NW Europe via the UK. I suppose we'll soon see one way or the other! Can't say I'm enjoying 2018 much these days though, to be frank it's being a right twit .
  12. After such a diabolical August in terms of CET behaviour (warmest summer on record for England, but not for the northwest-biased CET!), this situation has left me reeling - but only in a comically melodramatic 'woe est me' sort of way because let's face it, chance is a major player in this game no matter how skilled you are.
  13. 15.1*C and 49 mm, please. Confidence: Abysmal
  14. Singularity

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    I'm not so sure - taking away such a large area of atmospheric heat sink seems like a means for accelerating the warming of the global climate, or at least the N. hemisphere climate, even further. Trouble is, Arctic-rest of hemisphere/world interactions are something the models struggle to resolve due to the heavy dependence on feedback processes. Even a slight error can quickly amplify into a large one, making resolving it more akin to handling the day-to-day weather patterns as opposed to the usual, less sensitive nature of long-term climate prediction. Without high confidence results, it's hard to persuade governments to take action on that over other major issues. Also I'm wondering how the exposure of coasts to open ocean that have spent thousands of years shielded by sea ice would not lead to a big increase in coastal erosion? Or are you implying that the impacts on humankind would be negligible? That angle I can get my head around, provided one classifies the small local populations being disrupted as negligible compared to the global population.
  15. Singularity

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    It's all about the wind and waves now, and bottom-melt which can still - for another 10 days or so - potentially take out the sort of ragged, thin ice we see across the ESS at the moment. Regarding summer temps, it's true what you say @jvenge; my point regarding the input from the sun was with respect to direct solar input to the ice (once snow has melted); energy is put into that instead of raising temps. This leaves the melting process with nothing from above to stop it from cooling the air temp to near freezing. What disturbs me most about the way the Arctic is heading is the fact that the time at which the ice is becoming thin and fragmented enough for a highly flexible ice sheet is moving earlier and earlier in the year, increasing the potential impact of the sort of weather that the moisture feedback appears to encourage when paired with increased heat release from the oceans (i.e. windstorms). Another positive feedback in action. ...and now we also have news that the massive movement and some melting of ice along much of the Greenland and Canadian coastlines may well be a manifestation of a deep water heat storage finding its way to the surface as it moves up against the continental landmass. That heat storage having built up as a result of excess open water in the peripheral Arctic ocean, as these areas take in plenty of solar energy even during quite cloudy summers (let alone during sunny ones... but we've yet to really see that variation in action!) and tend to see downwelling (via Ekman pumping, I believe it has been said?). So much going on, and so little sign of much being done about it. There's just too much else going on in the world, and too much conflict over this, that and the other, for humankind to pool its resources in the ways required.