[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

RE low solar activity, it's maybe a touch early for that, I think we have not been in solar minimum for that long, and the coldest winters happen just after solar minimum and as we are beginning the next cycle. 

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

Nice to see the PV over Scandanavia in that final frame, though would be nice to have high pressure building over NE Canada as well.

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

FWIW (not a great deal) , CFS weekly anomalies looking quite promising

[Model output discussion - late November]

4 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

Yeah i'd semi agree with that too. Difference was December 2012 started off a lot more promising. I was thinking Dec 2014/Dec 2017 as being more similar personally

On second thoughts I would say, that is a more accurate assessment.   

[Model output discussion - late November]

Shades of December 2012 with the polar maritime potential, let's hope it comes off.

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

But isn't the thing that this is GFSv2 (FV3 last year) , so is yet to prove it's mettle? We'll see I guess.

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

Catacol said something interesting the other day, that it will be fascinating to see if this winter goes down the path of the LRFs , or something else entirely......

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

Seriously, has GLOSEA updated for this month?  The latest month still seems to be October for me.

[Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?]

Well the winter after April 1981 was sort of alright I believe.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

The thing about saying 'our winters have changed', is I think the human mind is naturally drawn towards those kind of flip of a switch, crossing the rubicon , black & white decisive changes. problem is, I think the reality is much more complex & messy.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

20 minutes ago, March said:

It’s like saying “Why is Barbados getting all our summer weather year after year”. 

I suppose I meant propensity for colder than average winters in N.America, since about 2013. Not all the time, in every winter, since then, of course, but there has seemed to be a general propensity for the pacific jet to plunge deep into US bringing cold weather in winters of last 5 years.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Gosh am I the only one pulling my hair out about north america getting all the cold winter after winter - surely it can't go on for ever.  Is it simply being caused by deep troughs forming there?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Surely next winter will be better with solar minimum & E-QBO. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

In my experience these 'bleak' periods of model watching usually don't last that long before a new rainbow to chase is sighted on the horizon.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

It is strange how the predicted HLB has failed to materialise. Even more so when you consider the ease at which it did so in 2009--2010. Bit of an enigma really this weather lark.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Yep first beast last March was very dry & powderey, almost like sand. But second beast the snow had a lot more moisture, and was very fluffy like tonight.

Difficult to describe what I am getting at. Fluffy is what it is, the lying snow lacks density & and is easily shifted say when walking through it. Anyway, just a minor point.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Hi all, I think over 10cm here, maybe getting on for 15cm.

One interesting thing about this particular snowfall is the snow is very light & fluffy, i remember the snowfall in mid-March cold spell last year (2nd beast from east), was similar. Not sure what causes this type of very fluffy snow.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

56 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Something very similar did happen in December 2010 when a pretty big segment of the polar vortex dived down into the UK straight from the Arctic. Though with us the temperature will always be modified as it travels through a large are of water before reaching the UK. It did give me my lowest 1pm temperature ever of -11C though.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=2010&maand=12&dag=14&uur=0600&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

 

Run it from the 14th to the 16th and you can see it clearly.

Our time will come again.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

CFS still daring to dream:

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Yes tonight just after 10 o’clock.

Thanks, will be interesting.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Can i ask does the EC46 get updated this evening?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Maybe on day 10 ECM signs of Canada PV shifting and heights rising towards newfoundland, but maybe that's too optimistic.

BTW when is the EC46 coming out?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Well, maybe just the hint, right at end of the 12z GFS, of high pressure moving up towards greenland and finally displacing the NE canada PV.

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Day 10 (+240) ECM chart:

May I ask, since I'm not a total expert, how 'good' this is for us?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Yes regarding medium range things looking good today, with the MetO update, JMA, CFS, all looking good. Let's hope the cold for this winter is like a lumbering giant, slow to arrive, but when it hits we'll know about it.