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    Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
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    See if you can guess

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  1. I guess that the SSW in 2013, that took a while (3-4 weeks) to really affect the weather (March 2013), but when it did hit, we did know about it. So I personally think that goodies lie ahead, although I was hoping we would have had a cold spell by now.
  2. Sort of think (hope) there might be a 'not so fast' story to today but we'll see.
  3. Sorry, missed that on beeb, do you mean Stav sounding worried & serious about cold weather for UK next week? edit: seems that's what it is. We seem to be almost there, fingers crossed.
  4. Strange how the GFS para is being more dismissive about UK cold atm, I've noticed this winter it has tended to be biased the other way, but then, it has not verified.
  5. Hope it is OK to ask this - what is now the informed opinion about how well GFS is doing, what with the government shutdown? Maybe it's performing perfectly alright I don't know.
  6. I believe the JMA long ranger was painting quite an extreme picture for February, with easterly winds all around the globe at say 50 degrees north.
  7. Hmmm that's a pity it's panned out like that. Still, latest JMA looks good with strong GL HP. And CFS also. Makes you wonder how they're seeing it.
  8. But is it a certainty that a strong lobe of PV will end up over NE Canada? Surely it's too early to say for certain - Or maybe not? I'm not an expert.
  9. Seriously though, might Fawkes be right even thought most of us hope he's wrong? Why would the SSW struggle to affect the troposphere? Of course SSW is not a silver bullet.
  10. Really, so the majority of sustained UK cold spells are preceded by a SSW? Interesting.
  11. Thanks for the replies, i guess it was something of a silly question, but it's interesting that so much would hinge on this SSW. But of course there's still the issue of whether the impending SSW will be powerful enough, occur in right place etc. I think, but I'm no expert? Fingers crossed.
  12. I believe I recall Crewe Cold saying that he thought that the LRF models that are going for major HLB this winter are doing this predicated on a major mid winter SSW, and that without the SSW it will difficult to get any HLB at all this winter. Does anyone else agree with this assessment?
  13. Gotta feeling we might just be slippy sliding our way into Bruegelian dreamland.....