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Yeah - I’ve got plenty of cold weather clothing. It doesn’t really get me depressed or anything or ruin my life to that extent, but as I said at least the warmer weather you so despise is only a few months. The darkness and cold weather is a much bigger portion of the year! Just means less golf, less barbecues and all the other nice stuff that you can enjoy in the summer. I played a fair bit of golf over last winter, and you get through it more than enjoy it. If it’s 3c outside then it’s gonna be a cold 4 hours!l walking!

20-21c? Really? I know some folk don’t like hot weather, but 21c isn’t even hot buy a fan or a/c if it’s a life ruiner. It’s not the dark ages, there’s plenty you can do to mitigate the warmer weather if it’s not your thing. At least you only have to endure maybe 4 months max of it, people like me who aren’t a big fan of winter and the dark have to put up with 8 months of cack weather in this country!

I think the Wednesday to Friday period could be a nowcasting type of setup. All the models still vary to some degree on warmth, showers and the like. I don’t really have a clue what I’m going to see Thursday and Friday. Got a golfing break over those two days so praying I dodge the showers and potential storms!

Should hopefully clear soon enough! Glorious again here. 17c and an expected high of 22/23c this afternoon. Not a cloud in the sky. Bliss!

It’s swings and roundabouts as you say. The prevailing weather type in the UK is westerly, so eastern areas on average will do better for drier weather over the course of time as western slopes wring out a lot of moisture. Can be frustrating, I’m far enough inland so that it doesn’t majorly effect me, but in these set ups it’s still a good few degrees below western areas. 2-3c lower today. 21c and blue sky was bliss though!

Wont be an error, haar already rolling into eastern coastal areas again. Temps drop like a stone when it comes in!

Well that 6z run must be the best one of the warm season so far. Be funny to see how far an outlier it is, because it stays very warm to hot throughout!

Hopefully, the day 10 ecm tonight is rubbish. Unsettled and we’re stuck under the only blob of cool air in all of Europe on that chart. Surely an outlier.

If the thundery low clears through by the middle of next week and pressure rebuilds then I’ll take it. If it leads to unsettled weather again then it’ll be a big letdown! Most of the output favours a rebuild so let’s hope it comes to fruition.

Another model twist then! Most going for quite an aggressive breakdown by Wednesday now. What happens after is open to question....lots to be decided!

Lots of uncertainty at day 6 on the ECM clusters. Models struggling to resolve how the low to the S/SW behaves.

Looks ok to me! Though these anomalies (much like the rest of the output) massively underplayed the amount of ridging that is now forecast to build to the E/NE of the UK. Check this chart from 3 days ago and we've got just a gentle westerly flow prevailing. The latest one above shows a big buckling of the 500mb flow, hence the much warmer outlook.

Also- the ECM op idea of dropping a pool of colder air over the UK at day 10 isn't supported by the ensembles. The scorching hot runs of yesterday where 15c 850 air was in play seems to have been wiped off (unsurprisingly), so we are left with a mean that supports temperatures in the low to mid 20s for the next week at least. After that it's very sketchy.

You'd be right there - ECM does indeed turn thundery by Thursday. Still very warm until then though, with 25c still showing Wednesday: Even Thursday could be pretty warm again, though this temperature profile is skewed by predicted storms etc and would change: All in all though - if we include yesterday which was pretty warm for many....it looks like 7 consecutive very good days for a large swathe of the UK, which looked almost unthinkable 10-14 days ago. A definite win after the dreadful May so far.

Good morning folks, What a nice position to be in with some sunshine and warmth on the cards for many for the next 5 days. I guess the question now is how long it will last, and to what extent the settled weather and warmth lasts? Let's look at UKMO. It keeps the trough far enough out of the way so that the warm weather hangs on until at least Thursday: GEM keeps the toasty weather going for a long time. All next week and right through to Sunday the following weekend. A likely warm outlier: GFS isn't anything like as warm, keeping things up to a best of 25c through the middle of next week: Lots of variability as you'd expect. At the moment we look safe until Tuesday. As the latest fax chart below shows, trouble is brewing away to the SW, and could come into play midweek onwards. Could be nice if thunderstorms are your thing, or equally it could stay just out of the way!

2 main clusters today - the slightly bigger 60% cluster is like the OP run and warmer/more settled. The 40% cluster pushes the Atlantic a bit closer and sweeps the very warm air away into the continent.

Here's the ECM ensemble Off the scale, but the mean is now at 9c. It's going to be very warm regardless.

Think we can deduce from the mean that the Op was a huuuuuuuuuuge outlier!

Little bit on the cool side after the next week, but not completely out of the question. Fine margins between this and a hot run like ECM!

First 30c of the year on the 00z ECM in 9 days time. Might need a new monitor to fit in the spike on the ensemble chart and how far off the scale it's going to be!

ECM is ridiculous this morning. 850s up at 15c by Saturday. Going by the GFS ensemble and GEM output this morning, it's pretty clear the ECM OP is going to be off the scale for a hot outlier. As nice as it may look to summer fans like myself, got to be as unbiased as possible!

GEM also bringing the heat from Monday through to Wednesday:

UKMO still looking very warm into the middle of next week on this mornings 00z run. Mid 20s likely:

A very decent ECM too, which has Thursday next week as the warmest day. Into the mid 20s. Can’t grumble about the output tonight!

GEM also says ah go on then....I’ll go for a BBQ Tuesday as well