mb018538

Nothing good about it I’m afraid, that rapidly deepening low is headed our way the day after. All runs dreadful again and no signs at all yet of anything other than a continuation of the rubbish we’ve got now. I’ve really enjoyed 50mph winds today in the middle of summer

I’m also really despondent now. Have been keeping my hopes up throughout July that we weren’t in a La Niña year and this sort of set up wouldn’t stick for weeks and weeks on end….but it has, and July isn’t too far from being finished in terms of summery weather. Come on August, we can’t have the best June on record followed by two absolute howlers.

Absolutely no. I think for most people it probably sits around the sweet spot where it isn't too hot or too cold. I like it a few degrees warmer, but each to their own.

If it looks dodgy (which it does), then conditions won't really be ripe for a high scoring game anyway. It'll probably swing and seam all over the gaff. We can blast 250 in 50 overs and roll them over. Just have to keep checking back on the models and pray!

ECM...low pressure, cool air aloft, low 500mb heights....can only lead to big, beefy showers. We also get this lovely chart of nothingness. Not one isobar over the UK or Ireland.

Decent GEM tonight at day 9 and 10 - a bit more of a ridge and drier. Temps no great shakes at 22-24c maxima, but that's perfectly acceptable compared to what we've had to put up with recently.

I agree - it's a very Nina style set up at the moment, and one that wasn't expected to dominate (hence all of the LRFs going mainly settled, warm and dry). The bounce back is just taking forever. Might take until the very end of the month or early August now to see any proper change.

Truly dreadful mid summers day....17c and pouring with rain. Could easily be October. If August delivers then this summer would still be a good one. We're going to get one of the best June's in history followed by one of the worst July's.

AAM is only beginning to sharply rise in the coming days….just have to hope this is enough to move the stuck pattern along towards the end of the month. Models really not interested in anything other than a continuation of what we’ve got.

Not looking overly promising I have to say. I was quite hopeful a couple of days back we might get a pressure build through next weekend, but that’s now looking unlikely. We will simply go from full blown unsettled that we have now to just slightly unsettled. Such a shame after that amazing June that the entirety of July could be down the chute before we know it. The waiting game continues…

Have to say I'm really disappointed with them. None went for a low pressure dominated July at all, it was just warm and dry dominating. To get the exact opposite doesn't really do much for trust or confidence!

Look away now if you are after anything good from the day 10-15 ECM ensembles this morning, they are grim to say the least.

As long as it's not this, I don't mind the mean below. Wouldn't be hot, but around average and decent enough out of showers.

ECM sitting between GFS and GEM by day 10. Helpful!

I'd urge some caution with forecasts at this sort of range though.....this little blighter is going into the mixer and will cause chaos.

Crunch time...will the lull around 7/8 be filled with low pressure like the GFS run shows, or will high pressure start to build like the GEM?

I always thought when we went 2-0 down that we could possibly win 3 tests (a big ask), but that the weather would surely ruin one if the games making it impossible to win the series. Looks very dodgy for Manchester though, I agree.

That's only rising to a mean of 1015mb though....which isn't going to be overly settled whichever way you look at it. ECM clusters starting to look better at the end....not amazing, but better than now.

Main take from this is how static the patterns have been the last couple of weeks In our patch and to the west. Rinse and repeat.

I think we will start to see some better charts appearing in the next 2-3 days. AO should turn back positive towards the last 10 days of the month, which is crucial in changing this stuck pattern. Hold tight.

Much better end to the GFS….Arctic heights finally gone and something more normal. Could take a while to get there, but maybe the last 7-10 days of the month could be much better.

Absolute fail here again for any storms. 0.2mm of rain and that’s it.

Stop worrying about the longer term output…the change will come eventually, and it’ll be picked up late as usual. The models will just keep churning out the same output until they latch on. Could be last 7-10 days of the month though. This pattern will move once AAM spikes, there’s just nothing to change it at present.

It’s 27c here at 10am….without all the muck coming in I reckon we’d easily see 31-32c today. Not long until the heavens open no doubt

The change (if and when it arrives) will probably just appear from nowhere on the ensembles. Remember them all showing this unsettled period to just be 7-10 days? Instead we're going to end up with 3 weeks or more. Once signals for change start to get picked up then it'll just slot into place. This chart that Matt posted is telling - models did a very bad job of spotting the big fall in AAM, which is why they didn't paint a long lasting unsettled picture. The fall has been bigger and longer than expected, but the upwards surge in the coming week should move this pattern along.