mb018538

The underground certainly will be awful in the heat, I’ll give you that one. Gets well above 40c down there on hot days, it’s vile.

Cracking ECM, 30c+ for sure on those charts. Some home grown heat from that anticyclone too!

Why would anyone want to live anywhere else? The UK is great, you get about as much variance in weather here as anywhere on the planet! Predictably unpredictable, just how we like it!

Yes exactly, dp of 12c with a 30c temperature isnt oppressive really. It’ll hopefully be a nice dry heat with no instability for a while, so we don’t all have to suffer!

https://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/dtg/weather/period-text.cgi?2018-06 Just to highlight the dryness as experienced elsewhere, the weather station at Cambridge University has recorded a whole 1.5mm of rainfall this month....with nothing really forecast for the rest of the month either, could be ones of the driest months on record. The last really wet day here was the 12th May, when 17mm of the 42mm of the whole months rain fell in one 24 hour period.

@mushymanrob I disagree slightly - john holmes knows his stuff and can interpret these charts as good as anyone else - he clearly said: 'Looking at the latest 6-10 day 500 mb anomaly output suggests that any upper ridging is a short lived affair with a mainly westerly pattern showing. You can see this, albeit certainly not cast in stone, on this morning's ECMWF if you play the previous chart from yesterday. This has a marked +ve ehight anomaly this morning no sign. NOAA also shows this over the past 2 days or so. I generally take NOAA as the most reliable with EC following and GFS some way behind unless it is similar to the other two. No GFS either yesterday or today on the link I have. The 8-14 NOAA similar to the 6-10. To me it remains looking like a NW-SE split on average through the next 2 weeks. Obviously they are 'mean' charts and some divergence on occasasional days will occur but no major difference over the period as a whole.' Which is what we were shown - transitory Azores ridging, better in the SE compared to the NW, broadly westerly, temps probably 15-23c. Certainly no sustained imminent settled/hot spell. A couple of days later and we could possibly end up with a 5 day+ heat wave with temperatures potentially into the upper 20's/ low 30's. Completely different if you ask me. The anomaly charts are good as a broad schematic, and most of the time are pretty accurate, but they can be subject to unexpected changes such as going on now. They are only as good as the data available when they are made, so if we get some unexpected changes a couple of days later, they aren't going to verify as you'd expect.

6z GFS has the first 30c of the year in the London area next Wednesday. Still 8 days away so will no doubt change, but another good run in the bank here. Also, just checking through the CAPE/LI charts - as you'd expect under a strong anticyclone, no fireworks predicted this time around. Just hot and sunny weather!

Those huge 850s not quite making it, but still 23/24c, which is translating to mid thirties in a few spots in Canada. Very hot! Also very hot across the SW at the moment - to be expected this time of the year of course, but temps approaching or exceeding 50c in the usual spots (Death Valley Needles etc over the coming days. Accuweather have a heat warning out in the Death Valley region for up to 125f (51.6c) Thursday/Friday.

We've certainly been looked after since mid April! April 2c above average May 2.1c above average June currently 2c above average, looking like staying there or going above by the months end.... Everything changed after the SSW, it's like it flipped a switch in the atmosphere and changed the normal parameters. Fascinating what the rest of summer will do, got plenty to live up to.

while its its very tempting to go into full ramp mode with these amazing charts appearing, worth noting there are still ensemble members that don’t go for the heat yet....so certainly not guaranteed.

Those last 2 ecm charts this morning are the best of the summer by a mile! High anchored in the right place, upper low off biscay not spoiling things, temps into the 90s for sure. Wow.

ECM - heatwave incomingggggggggg!! good news if you are a sun and heat fan. Bad news if not!

Yes, ecm is a dream if you like heat....we’re looking at a fair stretch of days above 80f if that verifies. If you don’t like the heat, look away now. Great for me!

Just digging this up from Saturday - not to have a go at @johnholmes at all or anything like that, more to illustrate the fact that the anomaly charts are only as good as the current data that is being fed into them. Only 3 days ago there was no suggestion of any sort of strong anticyclone building.....and that has quickly changed. So while these charts are useful a lot of the time, sometimes they aren't!

Belting UKMO run tonight - high pressure really in control at 144

@Man With Beard I'd be amazed if we see a 30c on Wednesday to be honest. I think we may squeak a 27c out somewhere, but personally I'm going to stick my neck out and say no 30c.

Just to show how quickly things can change as well....4 days ago at 240 hours, we had these options: None of which really translate to the 168 hour charts generated today really. Fast moving game this weather lark.

How about this for a corker of ECM ensembles. A week today - nothing other than a large ridge over the UK, just slight variations of the position. Day 10 still looking great, every cluster remaining high pressure based. It's not until right at the end of the run that anything unsettled starts to emerge, but even then 50% of the members are still settled.

12z UK is shocking tonight!!

Exactly, waste of time....they are guessing at best. Just wait until the time comes and we will see what unfurls. May and June so far have been pretty good, rest of June not looking bad, so a more than acceptable start to summer.

Looks nice enough, very cold 850s though for late June - 0 to 2c across a lot of the country, so don’t expect any great shakes temperature wise. High teens at best I’d have thought?

Looks fine to me, westerly based ridging is better than a trough. Being in the south and east I’ll obviously benefit most, so from an imby point of view I’ll take it!

Runs this morning not nearly as good as last nights ecm....but not bad either. Doesn’t look like too much ppn again down south, accumulated ppn charts only showing 3mm in the next 10 days....been so very dry here for a long time now.

Could be possible, bbc long range tonight has 27c in east anglia by Tuesday, ecm evolution is great for heat!

Barnstorming ecm tonight....but when it’s so much better than any other run, you’ve got to feel it’s prpnably a warm outlier. The others aren’t terrible by any stretch, but the ecm is a corker.