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Everything posted by mb018538

  1. No sign of anything like high pressure on the ecm either. Unsettled it is then!
  2. …and into winter and early spring. Basically October to mid/late March is a write off really. Ample opportunity to ‘enjoy’ umpteen cold, miserable wet and windy days. I can hardly wait
  3. GEM doesn’t want to know unsurprisingly. GFS had too much loopy juice I reckon.
  4. Be funny when we see the pressure ensemble a bit later and the op run is 3 miles above anything else!
  5. Getting to the time of year now where 850s alone won’t give hot weather as the sun loses power. You need a southerly flow to assist really. That sort of high would give upper twenties in July easily.
  6. I had to check this wasn’t cached or something. Ridiculous 120 chart from gfs tonight. UKMO below much more likely.
  7. How quickly this has changed from Monday...on the time longitude diagram, just look at how that red block running right through October in our vicinity is now a blue block out to the 7th October. The ridge/trough pattern has been pushed much further east, hence the trough now in our locale from next week.
  8. Yep, just means we get maxes of 12-16c. Pointless looking for a northerly or anything of the sort in late September. SSTs are at their highest, the land is still warm from the summer season, and it's just nuisance cold more than anything. I always feel like as we get towards bonfire night you can definitely get something with a bit more oomph.
  9. Just to show how much the forecast and models have changed in the last 4 days and why September can be an absolute pain to forecast... Monday's update had a ridge over the UK for the end of September and into October Last night's update for the same period? Troughing over the UK for the next 2 weeks Output this morning very much along those lines too. Very unsettled by the end of next week:
  10. Just hurricanes obliterating forecasts as usual! That spell of 30c weather earlier in the month wasn’t well forecast until quite close either. Always very volatile in September, and this year is no different. Global patterns actually favour a NW Europe trough at the moment anyway, it’s just taken longer to get there than expected.
  11. Very unsettled ecm at day 8 tonight - cool with gales and rain on the menu if anyone fancies that?!
  12. UKMO and GFS continuing to slide towards something more unsettled this evening. Midweek onwards.
  13. The ECM run this morning was probably a bit too extreme in how unsettled it ended up, but the ensemble trend is clear to see - it's a downward trajectory. For those of you wanting some 'proper' autumn weather after what has been an exceptionally warm and dry September so far for many (CET currently 3.3c above average), it might be here in a week or so.
  14. Clusters day 8-10 - quite a marked change from the output in the last couple of days, and a notable shift towards something more unsettled taking hold. Just take a quick look back at yesterday's 00z clusters below. Nearly every box in the 8-10 day range has a red border (blocked outcome), whereas today at day 9/10 we only see green (negative NAO) and blue borders (positive NAO). The usual September note of caution though. A quick check of the tropics and we can see it's quite active again. Of particular interest at the moment is the red X to the east of Florida. This has an above 70% chance of developing in the next few days, and if we scoot through to Monday's chart on this morning's ECM, you can clearly see it has blown up into a well developed system off the east coast of Canada. This will clearly impact ridges and troughs across the Atlantic, so forecasts remain volatile. The GFS pressure ensemble shows this well, with the usual scattergun of everything from strong high pressure to deep low pressure in the mixing bowl.
  15. Well - the ECM is the most cyclonic run we've seen for quite a while: An outlier....or are we finally going to see our first more widespread unsettled spell of autumn 2021 towards the middle/end of next week?
  16. Very hard to say at this stage...though if you believe the latest 6z GFS run then the couple of days that it builds in for are mainly clear. Depends if the winds are more north or south of east really. Big difference this time is the high is centred to the east and not the west though, which should mean less cloud entrained. The high a couple of weeks back had a lot of moisture as the air circulated over the sea:
  17. Already a 20mb spread in pressure at day 6 on the GFS this morning. 1010mb to 1030mb!
  18. ECM is very nice as you say! Pleasant days into the high teens/just into the low 20s. Pretty dry for most too, though far NW Scotland could take a pasting:
  19. UK looks to right on the periphery of the battleground between a big Atlantic trough and a blocking high to the NE. Also note on this UKMO day 7 chart more tropical trouble lurking down the eastern seaboard, which is bound to mess things up even further! NOAA fancy the ridge to just about save us from the trough, though it could get close to western areas.
  20. I was radar watching most of the day, and we were stuck under orange and red echoes for a large part of the day from 7:30am-3:30pm, so I'm not too surprised that 50mm plus was recorded. Absolutely relentless. I was more surprised that it actually happened here though. Cambridge hardly every suffers from anything like relentless rain, snow or gales. Always seems to miss here. The only box we usually tick is being up near the top of the temperature charts in summer heat!
  21. Wettest day here for 7 years. Nearly a months worth, and some unofficial stations have recorded even more.
  22. ....and still the rain keeps falling. Over 5 hours of heavy and persistent rain now, and the rain gauge is currently at 36mm for the day. Could be up near 45-50mm by the time today is done! Wettest day for quite some time.
  23. Doesn't look like this chart should be producing the day that we're currently having! Soon be up to 20mm for the day here. Currently the heaviest it's been in the nearly 4 hours we've had. Seriously hosing it down under a large red radar echo.
  24. Up to 11mm of rain here now since the heavens opened this morning! Still tipping it down!
  25. Been absolutely pelting it down here now for about 90 mins! Already up to 6.5mm of rain with loads more to come. End of the month and beyond looking insanely blocked on the ECM update last night. Look at all that red! Day 10 chart this morning and the latest from NOAA matches up quite well to this:
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