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Everything posted by mb018538

  1. Cracking ECM....by 240 we are nearly in June and still having 850s of 0 to -2c across the UK. Depressing.
  2. It's an ok-ish week. Temperatures around 18-20c are actually only average for this time of the year in the SE, so nothing too amazing, but better than of late I guess. Weather remaining very slow moving for the time being. Perhaps hints of a foundation to something better into June, with a real collapse in polar heights from today to day 10 on this mornings ECM:
  3. It’s still spring so we will have to see what summer holds. I actually thought after the winter and spring we had that a decent summer was looking far more likely than not. The weather recently has made me a bit jittery though....but best to stick with your initial thoughts I guess! Still hoping for a decent summer 2019. We just need a bazooka over the northern latitudes to break this relentless high pressure and start again.
  4. There looks to be a bit of an issue around the 23rd MAy - the MSLP ranges from 1010mb to 1025mb at either end of the ensemble scale....with that much uncertainty at 6 days out it's hard to be certain at day 10-15! By the turn of the month you have one member below 1000mb, and some above 1030mb!
  5. Nothing much to get excited about again this morning - runs not looking too sharp shall we say.... Interestingly, along with our mainly crud weather, there has been a lot of troughing over the western USA - California in particular. It's been noticeably cool and wet there, with rainfall well over the norm. Just another symptom of all this northern blocking and slightly prolonged abnormal weather patterns.
  6. Let's hope cluster one is closer to the mark...a bit more ridging from the SW rather than cluster 2 which is yet another northerly. Even out at day 15 heights are still strong to the north. Any warm and settled weather not on the cards for the rest of this month it would seem. Slightly above average next week, but nothing to really write home about, and certainly not wall to wall sunshine.
  7. ECM clusters on a knife-edge whether to go with last nights style evolution, or this mornings:
  8. Yes a much better run this morning - the Atlantic trough preventing the high building in towards Greenland and the polar regions....as such much better in our neck of the woods. Clearly chalk and cheese from last night, so better take a back seat and see how it plays out. Yesterdays 12z was as bad as it gets, the 00z the opposite.
  9. Not sure about that - doesn’t look settled at all to me next week. Low pressure very close by means cloud and showers in many areas, especially in the midlands south. Drier in the north. I think the west of Scotland could be the place to be for the best weather.
  10. Still not a great deal to sing and shout about after the weekend. With the pressure patterns very slack and slow moving, it's going to be difficult to nail down the detail from day to day, or even the weather type and temperatures. Slight changes will make a big difference. The only thing is that there is a fair amount of mild/warmish air over the continent, so it won't be overly cold.
  11. It’s not particularly appealing, probably explains the lack of comments. It’s neither one thing nor the other. At least it’s not looking especially cold to go with it this time.
  12. I’d much rather have Atlantic weather than easterlies in May....at least temps would be on the decent side rather than 4-5c below average like they have been, plus the leaden skies would be no more. Damn North Sea.
  13. Well the ecm quickly goes downhill next week - northern blocking strong again by Friday, with yet another cool air low pressure driven easterly to contend with. I’ve had enough of this cool weather now, someone needs to bazooka the North Pole and shake things up again!
  14. ECM doesn't look great for the east again - we just can't seem to shake that nagging feed from the east. 850s at 6-8c in n/western areas, a disappointing 0-4c in the south and east. Probably pleasant enough inland, but coastal areas likely to suffer again.
  15. Looks fairly localised at the moment...check the sferics out!
  16. One hell of a storm overhead here in cambridge. Copious rainfall, plenty of lightning strikes too. Wasn't expecting anything this big today!!!
  17. ECM clusters also looking much more settled at the end. Here's day 13: High pressure building. One to keep an eye on. The first 10-12 days of the month looking unsettled and cool, no getting away from that.
  18. In the short term things look pretty poor....big Greenland and Arctic high setting up into next week. Southerly tracking jet. Cool and unsettled the order of the day for a little while....
  19. 2018 had 400.8mm as a total - so below average as you'd expect. October was wettest as shown above, June driest with 1.5mm.
  20. Only 16mm for the month so far here in the desert city of Cambridge. We had 21mm in March, 18mm in February and 15mm in January. Even stepping back into 2018, December only had 33mm and November 19mm. October was the last truly 'wet' month with 54mm recorded.....even that is only around average though. It's dry as a bone. A pretty common theme across a fair number of locations it would appear.
  21. Outlook looking less than inspiring this morning....a slow transition into a cool bank holiday weekend after what looked like a very warm one a couple of days back.....followed by a dose of low pressure off the Atlantic. Time to go into hiding for a few days i reckon!
  22. Exactly, why anyone would want to still be wanting this in April baffles me. It's miserable. I can put up with it from November towards the end of March, but now it's just yucky. Luckily the air coming in with the easterly isn't especially cold, so we should still see temperatures in the low teens.
  23. Just looks a bit chilly and miserable to me with that easterly coming in. Expect days of leaden skies and temps of 7-11c.
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