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mb018538

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mb018538 last won the day on June 8 2020

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    Cambridge, UK
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    Weather (obviously), all things sport, music, quizzes/trivia
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    Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)

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  1. Probably the less said about the 12z GFS run the better. One of the worst of the summer so far!
  2. It definitely can! A couple of years ago we had a grey easterly in June here with drizzle and rain all day. Top temp was about 11-12c. Filth.
  3. Surprising stat. Obviously this is going to drop mid month onwards, but the topsy turvy weather from April and May has continued into June….
  4. Not all doom and gloom on the ECM mean. Note the 500mb heights increasing from day 8-10, as well as the 1020mb line starting to cover the UK again by day 10. Mean 850 temps also recovering as the trough slowly lifts out.
  5. Spot the torrential thundery rain! Heavily focused across the SE corner as you may expect with what is coming from late Wednesday onwards. The tropical Atlantic has also woken up. TS Bill is into the mix, and the yellow X disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has a 70% chance of forming into a storm according to NHC. It appears the ECM thinks this turns into a full blown system at day 7-10 as it exits the eastern seaboard and heads our way:
  6. UKMO looking more than a little fresh in 7 days time - 850s down to -2c near the end of June! Frost in a few sheltered areas? Certainly looking more unsettled to start next week, the evolution after this is a bit sketchy though. This looks like the most likely scenario - heights out to the west and east of the UK, with the UK in a weak troughing area?
  7. UKMO looking thundery into Friday as another low moves up from France
  8. Cloud deck has moved in here too, which has spoiled what was a lovely day until about an hour ago. Still 26c, but now more humid at 53%.
  9. If you are sick to the back teeth of the recent heat, then relief to more pleasant temperatures is on the way: Not turning cold for most by any stretch, just something closer to the average for late June. High teens/low twenties instead of mid to high twenties.
  10. The humidity mis-assumption thing gets me too. Quite often we get 30c+ heat here with low-ish humidity. For example the 38.7c heat in July 2019 came with humidity around 30%. Quite often it's in the 30-40% range during hot spells, which isn't high at all, but people just think it's humid because of the heat and get the two mixed up. You don't hear people saying how humid it is in the winter when it's cloudy and 90% humidity when it's 12c outside! Compare that to say New Orleans, which often has temps into the 30s with humidity above 50%. Or somewhere like Manila/Singapore in the Asian tr
  11. UKMO and ECM day 6/7 comparison. UKMO much keener to split a cut off low down over Iberia, which allows pressure to build over the top. ECM drops this straight through the UK and keeps it more unsettled.
  12. Still no real low pressure intrusion by day 7 on UKMO this morning: Day 10 GFS - Still very warm across many areas: GEM day 10 - not as warm, but mainly settled: Before all of this though - things are going to go BANG. Thursday morning - Thundery trough moving up from France as well as a cold front moving in from the west. There is a Met Office storm warning out from 6pm Wednesday to 6am Friday:
  13. Split flow causing problems as usual. UKMO looks really good at 144!
  14. Day 10 this morning vs last night. Today’s is about as bad as you can get with a UK trough surrounded by high pressure, including our old friend Mr Greenland high. Outlier I reckon.
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