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mb018538 last won the day on September 20 2016

mb018538 had the most liked content!

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    Cambridge, UK
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    Anything out of the ordinary!

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  1. Day 10 clusters: Atlantic looking quite blocked.
  2. It doesn't - but all of those have a heavily displaced PV, which still requires a hell of a lot to achieve! We all know it'll probably set up it's semi-permanent home to the N/NW of the UK, like this:
  3. Trouble is most bad summers still have a few hot days chucked in.... Okay there are a few real stinkers, but it pales into insignificance when you look at how many crud snowless Atlantic dominated winters there are. It'll be interesting to see how 19/20 winter plays out now. All of the long range forecasts (for the first half of winter anyway) point to mild, wet and windy. As long as it's not a December 2015 redux!
  4. Just as you think things may be slowing down and relaxing a bit by day 9... By day 11 & 12 things are looking very poor again:
  5. No signs of anything settled on the horizon still. Since that nice warm weekend around the 21st September the weather has been really poor, lots of wind and rain. As is usual for the UK, the troughs tend to last a lot longer than the ridges. With 15/21 ensemble members having a stronger than normal PV in the next couple of weeks, it doesn't look like any lasting settled weather is on the way.
  6. Still flooding concerns in Wales, NW England and NW Scotland,with 3-5 inches of rain possible in the next 10 days. Driest in E Scotland and East Anglia.
  7. Well both the Glosea and ECM winter forecasts are going for +ve NAO to dominate and a mild and wet winter. Think that's a safe enough bet, go with the form horse. I'll assume the worst and hope for the best.
  8. This is a good point. Denver is about 5,500ft above sea level (Ben Nevis is 4,400ft high for comparison), so it's a long way up! 850 temps are going to go from +23c to -7c in a day - hence the 26c to -2c max temperature drop. So even though the 850 temps may seem quite unremarkable at face value, once you factor the elevation and continental airmass in, you can see why it gets much colder than here. Fascinating.
  9. Nothing to really add again today. Deep trough parked in our locale still out to day 10 with no end in sight. Wet and windy. Flooding risk. See you all in 24 hours for the same forecast.
  10. ECM clusters right out to day 15 hold no real hope of a pattern change. Atlantic/westerlies to dominate for quite a while longer yet folks. With the PV really starting to fire up we could be into full autumn mode. Sadly the predicted changes of a few days ago aren't going to materialise.
  11. For me it's the same as the others - just the tedium of having the majority of days 7-14c, cloudy and mild-ish. There isn't usually enough sun, and the lovely cold crisp days are few and far between. Also the endless hope-casting on the model thread. If you scroll back through you'd probably find every single year has some sort of signal pointing to a severe cold/snowy outbreak that doesn't come off, and continued posting of charts from day 10-15 of the model suite as if they are a day away. Other than that, its ok!
  12. The current spell of weather is why I don't usually get too unduly worried about lengthy dry spells. Let's face it - we aren't in California, the rain will always come back sooner or later with a vengeance....I.e June or the last 2-3 weeks. The Atlantic can't be held off forever....looks like no way out of this rut until the last 10 days of October at the earliest now.
  13. Incredibly poor outlook - pattern locked in to leave the trough very close to or over the UK. Expect plenty more wind and rain for the next 2 weeks, looks like any hope we had of a pattern change has well and truly been canned.
  14. Still a disappointing outlook in the next 7-10 days - generally unsettled. However... By day 10 onwards the main core of the PV is predicted to migrate away from it's usual home over Greenland and to our NW, and the AO/NAO is predicted to tank sharply negative...perhaps a small chance of something slightly wintry in places into the last 10 days of the month? Very early in the season, but it's happened before.
  15. GFS/ECM sniffing out a pattern change to northern blocking again? We will soon be at the point where northern blocking = good, not like the awful run we had through spring and summer!
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