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mb018538

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mb018538 last won the day on September 20 2016

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  1. It’s not a normal year folks. Since that ssw we’ve had all sorts from dry weather....to the summer heat....to a mild and unzonal autumn. The one thing we haven’t seen is typical zonal weather at all, and that’s not likely to change. A low pressure system in isolation shouldn’t be counted as zonality, we are just in the wrong place at the moment. Things will improve through December, you wait and see!
  2. ECM ensembles looking fairly atlantic based out to day 15 at the moment - there is still one reasonable sized cluster that promotes stronger heights:
  3. They mention any westerly based weather will be short lived and that blocked weather should re-establish itself. I'm a tad dubious myself. AO is now forecast to rebound sharply into december, so it could be the door closes for a while. More runs needed, and the waiting game ensues.
  4. Strange that despite there being some impressive northern blocking the flow across the northern hemisphere is fairly flat.
  5. 6z is one for the bin. Low gets too close, mild SW'erlies return. No thanks.
  6. Very mixed messages all round. The AO forecasts are interesting! Most are recovering back close to neutral, but there are a couple going the other way and off the scale!
  7. That looks dreadful....completely at odds with all other output and guidance at the moment though, so no worries yet!
  8. Hope so. A week ago people were foaming at the mouth about this little cold pool heading our way at the beginning of this week saying that the model forecast maxes of 6-8c were completely wrong and we would see some snowfall in places. Models were spot on. Dusting over high ground, nothing more than grey and chilly at lower levels.
  9. Hope so Steve. To me it just looks like a slow transition back to the norm. Let's hope something get's pulled out of the ether.
  10. I’ll second that. Looks more like a damp squib this time around to me.
  11. I don’t understand what some people were expecting? Maxes of 2-3c? Reality check - it’s still November, the seas were very warm this year after the hot summer, and the uppers aren’t bone chilling. 6-8c is perfectly reasonable. If it had been 2 months later it’s a different ball game.
  12. The air could well be cold enough for a smidgen of wintry ppn... Probably still too early in the season for this to really be anything other than a chilly day with maxes around 5/6c at lower levels. Probably a dry airmass too as usual from the east.
  13. Orographic lift usually to blame....hence the same spots like shap in Cumbria etc get deluged, and east of the higher ground is much drier.
  14. Gfs 6z has parts of the West widely receiving 100-150mm of rain in the next 10 days....if the pattern doesn’t change soon then flooding is going to be an issue again.
  15. No surprise to see the strongest portion of the N/Hem jet is aimed right at us as usual!
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