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mb018538

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mb018538 last won the day on September 20 2016

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  1. ECM looks great out to the weekend - maybe a push to get 35c from that, but looking very hot none the less.
  2. Well I’m not sure what happened, but it managed not to rain again. So we go on!
  3. Interesting 12z gfs ensemble - by the 3rd of August, 19/20 members are above the 10c line, nearly half are over 15c, mean at 13-14c. could just be random clustering of hot runs that could easily vanish, but it’s looking increasingly likely the first few days of August will carry on where June and July left off.
  4. Staving off the inevitable here, that front is slowly on its way, and the rain will soon be falling!
  5. Looking more likely that anything truly exceptional (35c range) is slowly being scrubbed off as the very warmest air just misses the SE. There could be a correction back, but it still looks like a week of temps wandering in the high 80s/low 90s is on the cards in the south. We’d be jumping up and down in any other summer with a week like that on offer, maybe we’ve just been so spoiled this year that it’s not psyching people up so much!
  6. Ecm op says no to the ukmo take on things - trough much further away, 850s touching 15c in the se by Thursday again.
  7. Yes, but it gets too close and forces the plume further east. Need it to stall a few hundred miles further west like the ecm showed for optimal heat!
  8. Ukmo very aggressive with the trough tonight! Be interesting to see what the ecm says later, was much less vigorous on the 00z run.
  9. Quite right. People get a bit hung up on each individual run, they key has always been taking the situation as a whole rather than one individual part. I’d bet my house the 6z won’t sit within the ensemble mean at all, and be well below. As @Man With Beard has posted, the ecm ensembles look excellent.
  10. Interesting! The NIAB site is 4.5 miles away from me over the other side of the edge of town, didn’t see a drop here in sunny Trumpington!
  11. Seems most logical, but also the easiest thing to forecast too. It’s been hot for so long, so forecast the opposite, take the credit if it comes in, and just say something like it’s a remarkable summer etc if the heat holds on. Not to slate John Hammond at all as I think he’s a fantastic meteorologist....but I’d just be wary of forecasting any long lasting demise this year. Mid July onwards was almost where the wheels came off, before the heat held on again. We will have to wait and see !
  12. That's also completely untrue - check back through the ECM 00z/12z runs for the last week, none of them show anything like mid 30s for the weekend, if anything the prospects have improved over time. In fact 8 days ago on the ECM forecast we had a low slapped over the UK on the ECM: Generalised sweeping statements like that aren't really helpful to anyone, and just plain untrue.
  13. Those temps aren't correct though, no idea where you have plucked them from - forecasts have been showing 31-32c early next week. There isn't a chance in hell it will only reach 28c next Tuesday with 850s of between 12-14c. GFS shows 30c for both days, these are usually undercooked by a degree or two.
  14. Back end of next week could see a few days of 50c combined (32max/18min) temps, so 25c average in places. Even in the recording zone you are probably going to see 30max/15min, and with anything cool off the menu really for the rest of the month, this July is going to follow June and be an all time great summer month.
  15. I’d say by the weekend somewhere in the E/SE would probably reach 35c going on the ECM run verifying. Slack airflow in place for 3 days will just stop it being mixed out and it’ll get hotter.
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