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mb018538

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mb018538 last won the day on June 8

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  1. Yes - I think this summer has won the award for the most ‘promising day 8-10 charts that haven’t happened’.
  2. Max temps on that chart are 20-21c in the south. 12-14c maxes in the north, which is desperately bad for the hottest point of the year.
  3. Hopefully ukmo is on the loopy juice tonight. ECM looks ok Friday and Saturday, but cool Sunday. This chart sums up so many UK summers....the cold pool of air neatly encasing the UK while everywhere else sits in the warmer air.
  4. Marco still confident - won’t be seeing 29c on the ukmo output tonight that’s for sure!
  5. A couple of days ago I was looking forward to a nice week and weekend for this week....that’s been watered down to a cloudy and cool week, with potentially no nice weekend either (ecm pending). A constant theme of this wretched summer, where nice weather appears and just gets chipped away into nothing. Look at this ecm chart for Saturday a couple of days back. Looked lovely. Now looking completely different.
  6. UKMO building high pressure back in by Sunday. Though talk of a warmer weekend is fast going down the pan if ukmo is believed - looks quite cool to be honest.
  7. Doesn't look too bad - rest of this week doesn't look anything special mind you, with plenty of cloud and disappointing temperatures for the next 4 days. Potential for something warmer next weekend (25-28c range) - especially in the south. Thankfully it doesn't look drastically wet. A few western slopes in Wales, the NW England/Scotland could see a bit of a soaking, but on the whole it's just your usual summer weather. As mentioned last night, as we go forward it looks like how long we can hold on to this fine weather will be the key. We're there by our fingernails at the moment, with a negative AO and NAO in play and a NH profile like this, it isn't usually a sustainable one for UK warmth and settled weather. One to watch.
  8. ECM was above the average at day 9/10, but with the mean holding at 1020mb it shouldn’t be bad at all.
  9. Decent runs again this morning. ECM starts to rebuild the Azores high again at day 9, prolonging then settled weather. Looking good. Its also been a good while since we’ve seen the accumulated ppn charts look dry for the majority. The far west of Scotland aside, 0-10mm over the next 10 days for many, which is much needed!
  10. Wouldn’t be banking on anything with ex-Fay being injected into the jet stream. Could end up with anything yet.
  11. An interesting combination on the ensembles this morning!
  12. A blast of heat later on the ecm, but check out the difference from last night!
  13. Definitely half a step back on the 00z runs for the end days of next week - not as glorious as the 12z set of last night....low pressure slightly closer and deeper has flattened the ridge so that there is now a bit more instability and some rain/showers into northern areas by Friday, though southern areas still holding on to warmer and drier weather:
  14. ECM generous, but not a total outlier. Better prospects tonight for sure.
  15. ECM is great out to day 10. Are we going to get stiffed again this summer, or is this finally a decent little settled warm spell coming up?
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