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mb018538

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mb018538 last won the day on September 20 2016

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  1. Please don’t anyone suggest there may be a possibility of some sort of northerly coming down in early October! I did a couple of days ago and got shot down in flames! Not certain by any means, but it’s certainly appeared a few times.
  2. ECM clusters last night: High pressure dominant up to and including day 10: Hints of something flatter and more westerly based emeerging around day 15, though no clear prognosis:
  3. Exactly, what's the point in posting charts from months ahead.....they are irrelevant at the moment, and clearly not going to verify. 10-14 days is about as reliable as you are going to get from the models, and even then the reliability is low at day 14. Early october is too soon for anything other than a cool night really.....we can start worrying about the white stuff in another month.
  4. Thanks for this post @Interitus , something new i've learned today on this great site! I would assume ZAPE increases through autumn and winter due to the polar air mass growing and clashing in our latitudes, before obviously dropping off through the summer as the jet weakens as the N/hem warms up.
  5. Indeed....nothing but high pressure on offer for the next 10-14 days at least you'd say. Partly helped by the cut off low down to the SW, which is just spinning away for the next week and keeping the high close to or over the UK. Thursday in particular could be very, very nice indeed with temperatures up to 22/23c, very respectable for the last week in September.
  6. Lots of high pressure on offer this morning - after tomorrow’s disturbance. Looks like staying settled out to day 10 and beyond, with the high edging out west on day 5/6, before starting to move east back over the uk for next weekend. Could be some chilly mornings, though warming up a bit through the week.
  7. The end of the gfs 12z op is well below the mean for SLP....so maybe not representative of the overall picture.
  8. Compared with what was being modelled a few days ago, it doesn't look to be as severe as it could have been - updated UKMO fax chart for sunday lunchtime looks windy for a time, but the system moves off very quickly, and pressure rises in the SE from 1005mb to around 1030mb in 12 hours! That's some change!
  9. We may possibly squeak another warm day or two out next thursday/friday....but other than that, it's hardly surprising, it'll be October in 9 days! NOAA anomalies showing a strong mid atlantic high....winds sweeping down from a northerly quadrant as we head into October.
  10. Yes @johnholmes , a change in the forecast from exeter overnight....could get a bit windy in the south for a short while, but it appears the sytem rattles through very quickly indeed, to be replaced with a large area of high pressure, and things settling down nicely into the last week of the month.
  11. Certainly not looking anything like as threatening today - still windy yes, but the risk of 90-100mph+ gusts seems to be receding for now. A cool start next week before warmer air starts to get circulated in the high returning things to a much warmer feel. Trend still there to pull the high out west towards next weekend.
  12. Still very much up in the air. We may just end up with somewhere in the middle....very windy, just not as apocalyptic as the gfs keeps showing.
  13. Chris Fawkes has shown the non stormy outcome on the bbc extended tonight - but did mention that a number of models showed the storm.....so lots to sort out. Strange that we keep seeing these rapidly deepening lows so close to the UK.
  14. Surprised no one has commented on how odd the evolution on the ecm looks from 120-144?? In Northern Ireland the pressure goes from 985mb at 120 hours to 1035mb at 144 hours!! An increase of 50mb in 24 hours? Never seen anything like that in my life. Can anyone say if this has happened anywhere before??! Seems very strange to me!
  15. Who will come out with the credit at the end of this? GFS has been forecasting oblivion for a couple of days solid now, UKMO and ECM just don’t want to know really, and tonight’s 12z ukmo has no feature at all!
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