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mb018538

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mb018538 last won the day on September 20 2016

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    Cambridge, UK
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    Anything out of the ordinary!

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  1. Exactly, why anyone would want to still be wanting this in April baffles me. It's miserable. I can put up with it from November towards the end of March, but now it's just yucky. Luckily the air coming in with the easterly isn't especially cold, so we should still see temperatures in the low teens.
  2. Just looks a bit chilly and miserable to me with that easterly coming in. Expect days of leaden skies and temps of 7-11c.
  3. Surely people can't still be looking for cold and snow? March is nearly done, there's nothing cold on the horizon for the rest of this month or early April. Let's just admit defeat here and try again later in the year. Winter 2018/19 never delivered, and that's just how it is. Less than a month from now (April 19th) last year we reached 29.1c. The period 18th-22nd had maxima from 23-29c every day. That's the sort of stuff i'll be looking for, with some nice storms thrown in please!
  4. Like an unwanted relative hanging round too long at Christmas.....that bloody last piece of the winter polar vortex won't bugger off from its semi-permanent home! In the longer term - the trend is still there for the Atlantic trough to become more dominant again from the high pressure set up in the short term (D6 vs D12): In short - enjoy the nice calm weather while it lasts!
  5. Wouldn't bank on it...ECM ensembles are getting keen to start turning things more unsettled again as we head into April: Looks like the Atlantic might be coming back after a 10 day hiatus to end March...
  6. This spoiler low approaching from the west looks like preventing a clean build of high pressure. Doesn't look like a strong anticyclone such as the very warm spell at the end of February anyway...flow still from the west, By D12, all sorts of options available: By contrast - if you want to see signs of a strong high pressure, something like this needs to appear:
  7. D12 Clusters are roughly 1/3 in favour of a continuation of the westerly flow, though not as bad as present....or 2/3 showing some form of high pressure block forming. Too early to say which one will prevail yet.
  8. Well the 00z clusters are more supportive: High pressure in the largest cluster at 240 Then a 55/45 split for the rest of the run for high pressure or a continuation of flat westerlies:
  9. I'd exercise caution still at this range....ECM looks much more transient than the GFS, and by day 10 the high has been pushed away again. GEM just stays flat and zonal throughout! It'll be interesting to see the clusters today, last nights 12z ones had only a fleeting rise in pressure before low pressure took over again:
  10. The 6z isn't totally an outlier - it sits above the mean, but there are a few others going with it. The most marked information you can glean is a bring drop in ppn, and no spikes at all for the last 10 days of the run....so we've probably got another 7-10 days of crud to put up with before things start to change once more. 'Winter' looks to be done with for another year, if it even got started at all.
  11. Nothing much to whet the appetite again today. Still a continuation of the unsettled, wet and windy regime for the next 10 days. I normally like to contribute to the model forum, but i find it hard to keep coming back and posting the same thing every day for my least favourite weather type!
  12. After looking like the Canadian death lobe may start to ease off around mid month a day or two ago, it now sadly appears like it’s not going to disappear. Looks like more wind and rain for the next 10 days, with something a bit colder at times. I won’t be getting too worked up about Sunday here....it’s forecast to reach 10c, even with 850s around -5.
  13. Looks like going by the latest ecm and other output....that by day 10 the n hem profile is much better. Lots more ridges and troughs rather than a flat profile, so a bit of potential perhaps for mid to late March.
  14. Looks pretty naff, doesn't it. The whole northern hemisphere has more or less flattened out, with a strong AO forecast until the middle of the month at least. Perhaps hints of it relaxing after, but no signs of any early spring cold or a repeat of the late February warmth. Bog standard UK weather for 2 weeks - wet and windy, alternating between cool and mild.
  15. Looks like batten down the hatches is order of the day for the first half of March. Potential for a strong storm Sunday into Monday next week - models all vary on this at the moment so one to keep an eye on. AO highly positive, and a N Hem profile you might expect in November or December! PV is like the terminator this year.....i'll be back!
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