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  1. I cant trust seasons to act normally so my moneys on this: December - Warm and moist month becoming very wet and humid over the xmas period as strong SW'lies drag up air from the Azores January - Stormy with severe gales, with dry & cold intervals but never lasting February - A surprise snowfall similar to that of Feb '09 during first half of month but then switch back to the mild & wet
  2. Oh look on the GFS 12z, The minute September shows its face and the HP can finally make it out to the East, something its been unable to do all summer. Its like its been blocked out West leaving us with very limited S'lys/SE'lys. As with every new season when it rolls round theres always a bite back into the previous season so we shall see...
  3. in some of these GFS runs I'm seeing HP centred right over the UK but why are temps so idle? Showing maxes of around 19 to 21C - surely with HP splattered right across us in August maxes should be around 26 to 30c?
  4. Ignore the chart and ignore the hope casters that lead us up their garden paths and turn them into genuine forecasts. . It wont come off just like the 100s of others this summer. The sypnotics are still looking as vile as they looked on July 25th all set for a cold and wet month. I can't see 25C being breached again this year unless theres a big turnaround. Note: ECM 00 op was very vile post next weekend.
  5. It has to be said but the 18z GFS run tonight is overall the most vomit inducing run i've seen for any late part of summertime and I wouldn't even call it a pub run, I'd call it a 'summer is over' run. Following a brief flirt with the Azores next week, by next Sunday another low comes barging in from the Atlantic followed by a deep dartboard low behind it which then spends that week swinging right across the UK leaving the door open for even more lows to swing in and complete their little mission in ruining our season.
  6. Extreme caution to be taken with the gfs 06z because the ecm 00z throws in a another Atlantic low around the 10th.
  7. The whole Atlantic right now looks like just one huge over-sized breeding ground for troughs and lows pressures have plenty of room to swing their full weight around. It has to be said - this type of pattern is never in a hurry to clear, although there seems to be a trend for improvement around the 5th.
  8. bbc weather says Thursday/Friday will be dry so don't know why charts are showing Rain.
  9. Wow these charts!!! We need someone to remind us its a year ending 2 or 7.
  10. Met office didn't get anything wrong. Their computers were picking up on all the right variables leading to settled conditions but sudden wind changes can alter patterns right at the last minute, call it sods law.. Never blame the weatherman!
  11. When its 72 hours within a reliable timeframe i'll believe it
  12. Awful charts with an awful southern Jet that cant get North.. Topsy turvey weather - just cast your minds back to January, not a jet stream in sight for the whole month and the sunniest and driest January for a long time with a pleasant mild SW'ly. Now if that was July..
  13. Its not over the top at all, I'm just saying what I think based on this becoming locked pattern. Another very dull summer month likely on the way by the looks of it. GFS with non stop low pressure, low temperatures, showers or longer spells of rain and wind. The jet stream is too far south and is struggling with the door wide open for as many low pressure systems as it wants to come along and dump the atlantic on us.
  14. Looking at sypnotics and latest charts I do have a feeling we could be writing off August/rest of summer as we enter an unusual and very unseasonal August unsettled pattern with a sudden awoken Atlantic. But lets not forget a cooler and wet second half to summer was already on the cards in the model outlooks which appear to be coming to fruit. These patterns can stick like superglue if they continue the way they're heading and it could be mid-September before we get any next decent dry and warm spell.
  15. The excellent summers we've had in the past weren't normal either in my opinion. Just over the top barmy hot weather that isn't UK standard. If 1976 hadn't occurred I think peoples expectations of summer time would be a lot different. Meanwhile 18z looks ok next week for Monday, Tuesday & Weds. Southern and Central parts likely to see finest days but getting cloudier and wetter further North. Thursday to Sunday look and smell like dirty urinals.