Fourty Point Three Degrees
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Posts posted by Fourty Point Three Degrees
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I keep getting this all day when trying to log in or is it just me?
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On 22/09/2023 at 19:33, SqueakheartLW said:
CFS 9 monthly 12z
A back loaded winter showing up on the CFS 9 monthly 12z today. Takes until February to get going then it delivers several times.
It even delivers right into April 2024 too
CFS 9 monthly 18z
A nice cold Christmas 2023 showing up here
Turns annoyingly mild during January 2024 but the cold is back in February
It even continues on into March 2024
Well worth looking at this 18z run. Almost 6 weeks of continuous cold and at times snowy conditions from early Feb 2024 to mid March 2024.
Is there a term to describe winter weather in spring? Just like warm weather occurring in autumn is called "Indian summer". Do we have one for cold weather in Spring?
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It will be the usual this winter. Wet and mild over here while winter wonderland across the Atlantic
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13 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:Disappointing if the fine spell next week does fail, those ECM charts look worryingly Atlantic-dominated to me, even the more settled clusters. Nothing really anticyclonic, even the SE seems to be mostly under SW-lies. Reminiscent of a lot of spells we've had in recent Octobers where it's been mild but not particularly settled.
With an atrociously bad week this week, it will mean yet another September devoid of really prolonged fine, settled weather - 32C temps early in the month are about as use as a chocolate teapot if the second half of the month has constant Atlantic domination.
With the awful summer those who were in the UK endured, we need a prolonged spell of anticyclonic weather this autumn to compensate, hoping something will deliver before we enter the period of intense darkness from Nov to Jan.
Devoid of a prolonged fine spell? We've just had a week long hot spell that you'd expect in July. What do people expect in September? Nothing poor on the horizon either it's all looking like a standard default weather pattern for a typical UK Autumn.
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17 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:
Finally, some autumn.
Let’s get cooled down now, hopefully in preparation for an interesting winter season.
With the current boiling hot SST's i wont expect much this winter
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Gotta admit this hot spell isn't much fun as its got just too humid and nights here have become uncomfortable even for my liking. I think it's just a toned down version of the hot spell of August 2003 which went on for several days with oppressive high humidity levels.
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Gfs just goes on and on. Still 31c in the SE by next Wednesday. This would have be the longest spell of 30c days in September.
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Looking at some of the overnight lows this week it looks like lows might not drop below 20C. Have Tropical nights ever happened in September before?
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20 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
Indeed @Mark wheeler and September could have the potential of being better than August.
When isn't September better than August.
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21 minutes ago, WeatherEnthusiast said:
Indian summers are definitely in October not September.
Does anyone remember the Indian summer of 2002 - High Pressure over the UK from September to mid November .
An Indian Summer always when its after the first frost even if it happens in September
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On 15/08/2023 at 13:14, Sunny76 said:
A warm or hot June won’t mean anything if July and august that follow are poor. Most people will agree with me. It’s just a fact.
Why can't we say this summer was a good summer? We always say 2013 was good summer when its only known for its 10 day hot spell in July. Both June and August 2013 were dreadful months.
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Nice looking 18z rolling out
Could this be a week long warm and dry spell similar to that of June?
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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:
40C is not possible past mid August in the UK, that's my opinion. Not at the moment in time anyway. To breach 40C in the island that is UK requires a near perfect set up as it is...being within 4-6 weeks of the solstice is one of those conditions. Lapse rates won't support 40C so far past the solstice.
35-36C is really pushing the limit of what is possible come later August for the UK.
The 40C+ we had in July last year required a heat dome to fester across Spain/Portugal for some time beforehand AND for us to be close enough to the solstice.
Aug 10th 2003 disagrees with you. . which is a date way past solstice and into late summer and was all 20 years ago today - so if 38.5c can be made 20 years ago I'd say 40c is pretty achievable in August today, and all in a warming UK climate.
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7 hours ago, JR319 said:
I really don’t get BBC Weather graphics usage - one hour of light rain with the rest being sunny/sunny intervals yet they choose to make the overview of Monday a light rain graphic? Misleading much.
What bugs me about BBC weather is how they use Liverpool to represent the temperature across the North West. Liverpool is always going to be the coolest place during heatwaves.
A person living in Stoke or Manchester will assume their temperature is going to be 26 but its actually 26 for Liverpool yet in Manchester or Stoke it could be 30 or 31. The BBC did it last July and announced it was going to be 32 in Liverpool when it was 37 in Manchester. The population of Manchester and surrounding towns and cities sure exceeds the population of Liverpool yet we have to go by Liverpools temperature to represent the whole north west.
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2 hours ago, Uncertainty said:
Is it too early to get excited?
Yes I know… no euro low heights, we’ve been here before, it’s just one run, it’s August BUT IM STILL GONNA POST IT
A chart showing that in fantasy means a mild wet and mild winter in reality.
I wouldn't even waste a single tiddle tiny bit of my energy getting excited about it.
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Looking likely now that the UK will be be under much warmer airmass from next weekend. Pretty much a shock to the system after Julys misery. How hot it gets and how long it lasts is all down to the low to the west of Biscay and if it can behave well enough to deliver a full blown heatwave.
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7 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
Although we are not exactly at the solstice anymore, we are still inside the period where the hottest temperatures can occur, i.e mid July to mid August. There is still a lot of very hot air in Spain and North Africa.
If like some you are afraid of that more extreme heat, we are still not really out of the woods for another 3-4 weeks, where mid 30s can be reached even into early September. Longer nights help a little, but the sun is still pretty toasty when it does get hot in August.
Personally I prefer mid 20s and sunshine now as well, but I wouldn't be afraid if we did get more extreme heat for a day or 2.
In this warming and changing climate I think the early part of October could hit 30c if all the right conditions and right set up falls into place. October 1st 2010 reached 29c. Mid September 2016 is another example hitting 34c.
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There seems to be a lack of moths this year. Not seen any at night as normally come in through the window attracted to the light. Wonder if they've all died due to the cooler weather?
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13 hours ago, CoventryWeather said:
Found this on twitter. Sorry if it's in the wrong thread.
January 2024 Average MSLP
13 hours ago, sheikhy said:Now a chart like that makes me wana forget bout the next 4 weeks and just focus on winter which is where i really thrive
!!!what an absolute beauty that is
!!!
When a chart like that is showing within the T72 timeframe I'll believe it. After this summers massive model fail I don't know why people are drooling over charts that are six months away. The long range models can't even get it right one month away. Even if that chart verifys we'll probably end up with cold rain and very limited snowfall as usual
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Latest ensembles from the GFS are very dissapointing, Hardly anything going above the average until at least mid August. After that its the great old land of the it'll never happen. This summer is worse than 2012 at least 2012 had some decent hot days at end of June and July.
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Took a couple of days away from model watching but had a sneak peek at them today to see if the trend for a pattern change in August had developed further but seems any pattern change has sunken away quicker than the titanic!! A continuation of July and a low pressure traffic jam waiting to get here is the best GFS can offer..... 2012tastic..
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6 minutes ago, Backtrack said:
Regardless of what the anomaly charts are showing for the next 10-21 days, there’s a pressure rise coming our way.
The GFS has consistently been showing ridges of HP from around August 2nd for the past few days. Some of its output being more extreme, some output being more realistic, and I think at this point that it can’t just be dismissed.
I think perhaps people are looking for something spectacular in the mid-long term and dismissing what’s directly in front of us. Realistically, there’s nothing on the charts that’s remotely spectacular, there’s nothing reminiscing of June and there’s no ‘European heatwave extension’. There’s just some drier, sunnier weather on the horizon for the first week in August.
Positively, there’s also some warmer days showing up for the first week of August with consistently. This is a marked improvement over the entirety of July, and that’s certainly something to look forward to. It’s a pattern change and it’s what we’ve been looking for, just not an extremely amazing one which is what June perhaps made us more accustomed to.
There have been a few ensemble members showing us tapping into the heat from the South as we start off Aug. Last nights 12z showed furnace conditions and these hot ensemble members are not being pushed back they are being pushed forward by a day or so.. but theres definatley a warmer pattern coming and I wouldn't rule out the euro heatwave extension just yet. .
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A maritime westerly summer isn't so bad after the recent heat spikes of 35 plus each year since 2018. I find it very refreshing and cool as last year did too much to bear and was very oppressive in August ..... but lets use this summer as a stern reminder that this is our climate by default when expecting 10 day heatwaves and heat spikes to verify.
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Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
If December is going to be mild then you might aswell call winter off. We all know that chasing cold in December just turns into chasing cold in January and no sooner does it become chasing cold in February. Seen It all too often.