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    Extreme weather, Summer & Winter. In between is boring :)
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    Summer & Winter

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  1. Summer will be a poor one I just know it.
  2. Looks like next week we'll be making our payment for the 2nd hottest April day of all time as we are catapulted right back into the depths of Winter. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=275&y=105
  3. I say 5th July at Heathrow and it'll be a one day South East wonder. Then a very poor July and August, with another shot at 30C in late August. I'm not expecting much this summer.
  4. At the time of posting the ECM & MO were nowhere near the blowtorch of a GFS that was showing.
  5. Just for fun,,,,1st May on GFS 12z showing MIDDAY MAXIMUMS
  6. The PTs are really not high enough as they were being forecasted a few days ago and I think BBC are overcooking maxima. This is ECM for London on Thursday. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/greater-london/temperature/20180419-1500z.html I'd say GFS is overdoing it too on maxima.
  7. Not sure where these maxes of 26/27C are coming from. .... Anywhere will struggle to get anything of 23C or higher let alone 27C. Any strong sunshine will result in high evapotranspiration rates so unless there is some mixing of dry air from just above the boundary layer then dew points will be quite high. But at same time the near surface temperatures will not be as high as they could be if we had just experienced a very dry March and first half of April with plenty of sunshine. Models just may not factor this in correctly.
  8. The models were hinting on a return to colder conditions as April comes to a close, following a Spring like blip.
  9. And 1995? And 1976? Wasn't that quite similar to now in the solar cycle? Back to the models, The GFS 0z going back unsettled again in the last week of April after the drier blip.
  10. Its good the Azores has arrived here earlier and people want it to set up a prolonged summer pattern and strengthen for the rest of Spring but if that's going to be the case then things will only start to deteriorate by time we get to mid-June. Good patterns don't normally last long. Hence why I said it should go home and come back in two months as it would be better timed. If people want a good summer then ideally the Azores should arrive to set up its pattern in June.
  11. Two months too early. Go home Azores your not due to start work for another two months.
  12. Bear in mind 2007 followed a really hot summer 2006 and warm winter.
  13. Could this summer be in for a more Scandi blocking pattern? We are after all in a low solar region so with less sunspot activity and SST are more to near normal in the pacific I'm thinking there could be more blocking and heights rising in our favour.