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Alderc last won the day on June 23 2015

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About Alderc

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    Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS

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  1. Well we are now approaching high summer and time when summer sometimes beds in for the long haul. Let’s hope it doesn’t bed into what any of big models are showing tonight otherwise we will bring up those summer that shall not be named.
  2. Seem to have heard the 'no anomaly support' quite a bit recently. While the northerly heights aren't there on this evenings ECM another trough drops down over the UK at D9.
  3. Yup I'm off next week too, this thread could get an absolute smashing. I would cancel but still have a bunch of holiday I need to use up.
  4. I have to say I think we are looking at heavy rain event opposed to a thunderstorm event. Its already a very messy picture over France, I think 'thundery rain' is more likely for most than discrete storm cells. Interestingly the Euro4 has 100mm of rain near Pompey through the day tomorrow. Just 10-15mm here.
  5. 19C with a 17C dew point here, doesn’t feel particularly warm or humid and its dark, lights on inside.....
  6. Agree, any one who doesn’t like heat only really ever has 6-10weeks of it in the absolute best summers and that’s in the south, remember those of us how dislike the cold have to put up with it for 30-40weeks per year depending on the year.
  7. What is interesting currently is that the surface flow is straight out of the NW however the mid and upper level flow is straight from the SW.
  8. More rubbish heading up from the channel, its actually been a much better morning than I expected but looks like we'll be stuck in the middle of more meh convective crud in a couple of hours.
  9. I tried not comment too much on the GEM this morning, as it was absolutely dreadful and an almost worst case scenario. Bit worried as GFS has also recently thrown a couple of these ‘there almost so bad they can’t happen as they go against the background signals scenarios’
  10. Yep looks mighty uninteresting until the end of the month now. Starting to edge towards high summer now don’t want the troughing pattern locking in for too long.
  11. Not the best output this morning. Green snot returns to the UK as the trough solution looks to get locked in. GEM offered so hope last night but to be honest it’s even worse than GFS this morning. Concerning given how the pattern seems to be going recently and once something gets in it rarely moves before 3weeks or so. ie April cold & sunny (4 weeks), May cold & wet (4 weeks), end of May and start of June dry and generally warm 3weeks. GFS ensembles becoming pretty tightly packed, and zero warmer solutions until at least day 10-12. Not a good sign IMO.
  12. Was always only on the western fringe of possibilities but for the action to be so far to the east was frustrating but again it looked that way from 3 or 4pm. Again credit where credit is due, GFS was pretty rock solid with its modelling and the higher res models especially UKV really didn’t cover themselves in glory.
  13. Nope! Profiles dont support anything remotely supercellular. Bog standard elevated storm.
  14. The most lightning prolific ones are the ones that go from clear skies (or at least clear radar) to lighting in about 20minutes. To be honest if storms usually fire more than 30-40miles offshore from here I rarely hold my breath, they are always best in their explosive stage. I've never once seen drizzle turn into a storm.
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