
Alderc
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Alderc last won the day on June 23 2015
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960About Alderc
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Chris
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Bournemouth
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Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
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Model output discussion - late November
Alderc replied to Paul's topic in Weather Discussion - Winter
Feels like the winter version of what we saw in June and July when about 10days out GFS picked out those outrageous 20C+ 850's. In an similar fashion odds on those charts (at this range) showing 20-40cm piled up over southern England coming are off are probably very low, maybe circa 5-10% down here with something further north and less intense possibly more likely. Will certainly be very interesting to see how this pans out. -
Model output discussion - late November
Alderc replied to Paul's topic in Weather Discussion - Winter
Thats an election wrecker -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
Alderc replied to Paul's topic in Model Discussion Archive
Nope, months ahead for cooler, fresher nights, they can do one for the time being seriously though, much better from ecm over the weekend. -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
Alderc replied to Paul's topic in Model Discussion Archive
Monday really is up in the air, GFS 06z takes the little feature further south west meaning a very hot day likely with widespread 30’s in the south east and high twenties across almost all of England.... -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
Alderc replied to Paul's topic in Model Discussion Archive
Well GFS suddenly gives maxes of only about 21c on Monday as a weak upper trough looks to move SE over the UK, fortunately it’s appears to be a pretty big outlier within the ensemble pack and the Ops 850s are 5-7c lower than the mean, that’s said it’s by no means on it’s on. -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
Alderc replied to Paul's topic in Model Discussion Archive
The GFS solution is clearly an outlier, however it wouldn’t be first time a GFS outlier has come off this summer, could really do with that energy being displayed all together, wouldn’t take much for the ecm run to end up like GFS however on the flip of that ECM could easily remain high pressure all the way - while historical events offer no insights into the actual future bank holidays have a tendency to start out warm/hot and rapidly deteriorate through Sunday with the Monday being a hollower, wouldn’t bet against that next weekend. -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
Alderc replied to Paul's topic in Model Discussion Archive
From an IMBY perspective getting through the long weekend and the following one which is the airshow in Bournemouth with a decent spell of weather would be enough to flip summer into the decent category, that said the models this don’t fill me with joy, there’s quite a difference between GFS and ECM post about a weeks time, the ‘lesser’ models seem to be split as well through this time frame. Normally you’d back the slightly better ECM forecast however it’s not been in great form this summer so have the feeling something a bit more unsettled may still be on the cards. As usual pinning down any cutofffs or upper troughs will be key to the overall picture. -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
Alderc replied to Paul's topic in Model Discussion Archive
Ugh, big old watering down of the settled and warm end to August, looks like an upper trough could get anchored over the UK and really anything more than the odd decent looking unlikely in the reliable time frame. BH weekend could be a stinker if that low get wedged between high pressure to our west and east!! -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
Alderc replied to Paul's topic in Model Discussion Archive
Really? Very little to be optimistic about unless your getting on a plane to Cyprus, any warm up is over ten days away! Between now and then GFS has at least 4 varying depths of low pressure to swing across the Uk anchoring is in a dreadful and continuous stream of cloud and fronts, hard to see August being anything other than another poor like so many of the previous 15. -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
Alderc replied to Paul's topic in Model Discussion Archive
Only three days away, hard not to see something like this happening. Output terrible this morning and summer really does look like being book-ended by some awful conditions..... -
Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?
Alderc replied to Paul's topic in Model Discussion Archive
Well I’ve taken as long a break as possible from any in-depth model reviews and to be honest having a poke about today sort of makes me wish I hadn’t bothered. Looks like summers going out how it began with stinking northerly blocking and either a succession of Atlantic moisture or slow moving trough near the UK and another pretty naff August. Fridays low wouldn’t be too bad if it was over Denmark by Saturday but it looks like dragging its heels big and still holding an influence into Saturday, Sunday and even Monday. Think I already need another break from the models.