Alderc

Accumulated amounts from now until then - basically nothing at all down here.

Another reasonable run from GFS 06Z so pleasant and dry conditions looking likely for the next week or so. The Ensembles (which are unusually unanimous right out to the 27/28th) paint a different picture than maybe the synoptics would suggest, the cold front racing south on Wednesday continues to accelerate forward in the model output to the extent that tomorrow is now likely to the be the warmest day of the week. Also the cold pool behind is quite potent for the time of year and takes around 4days to mix out before the ridge once again regresses westwards. Given how this week's brief ridge has panned out I have little confidence in any scenario beyond about Saturday (despite the good ensemble agreement), definitely more runs required but certainly a lot of dryness about.

Both ECM & GFS make a lot less of the troughing to our east later this week allowing higher pressure to build in a more favorable position. Both solutions looking at pushing the temperatures into the high twenties (ECM probably 30c). GFS ends the brief warm up with another northerly ECM looks towards the end of the run as though trough disruption in Biscay could occur leading to some very hot, thundery and humid conditions. Off course one thing to keep in mind, 3/4days ago the models looked as through they had got this week right so I wouldn't be surprised if the 12Z's have a screaming northerly in a weeks time......

This is a weather forum last time I checked, in the depths of winter you’d get nailed on here for bigging up charts that showed average maxes. While I’m sure it’ll be ok, there’s no there’s going to be a lot of cloud so I’m still not sure it’s going to be even as very averagely good as some of the charts are indicating.

ECM 12z is fortunately much better. One thing to note about the next few days is that the North Atlantic is currently filled with cloud, while ridging of high pressure should ring some of it out there’s no doubt going to be a lot more cloud about Monday-Wednesday than what people appear to be thinking.

Ouch - 12z output from Ukmo and gfs is poor really. Ukmo would deliver some really very cool weather especially given we are starting to enter into high summer, the strength of troughing to our east is clearly causing model discrepancies. The stronger the low the further west low pressure is dragged and the cooler the conditions. while less bad gfs rapid regresses high pressure to west and the U.K. becomes stuck under a cold pool filled with cloud. Yes it’s dry but not ideal and temperatures take an age to recover. We really need that low pressure either much further east or much less intense however there appears to be a reasonable consensus that by the end of the week it could feel more like late April at times..

Indeed, some notably low uppers and a fair bit of cloudy likely, could be chilly at times even in any sun, overnight getting well into single digits away from city centres. Still it could be worse.

Lol the perils of model watching, last gfs had 30c forecast for the south on Thursday and 25+c for 6/7days, today Thursdays forecast is just about scrapping 20c in London. Pretty good agreement that high pressure will now regress westwards allowing a rapid decline in temps in the second half of the week. Talking of decline in temps only 15c here today so a poor summers day.

While not as hot as some of last nights runs the overall synoptic scenario is much better than 24hrs ago, certainly appears to be a notable reduction in the chance of troughing or low pressure in general starting to take over next weekend. I would not be surprised to that southerly flow develop over the U.K. (I mentioned this yesterday) in the 6-10day time frame. Watch out for something notably warm into the last week of June.

I meant the patterns/scenarios generated will likely be those that happening in actuality for the remainder of the month, it would be easily to slip into a troughing pattern which inevitably gets stuck over the UK for a minimum of 5-10days, was just saying I think that won't happen and the models really haven't a grip of conditions past the middle of next week.

I get the feeling we are getting to a critical day or two in the modelling stakes which will ultimately dictate the weather the remainder of the June. With the first half of June daily max averaging 21.9C at Bournemouth airport (2.5C up on the LTA) its clearly been a consistently warm start to summer here, looks as though that average will be maintained throughout the middle of next week as well but the big question is will the Azores ridging be a temporary 3-4days affair? Seems as thought that is the favorite solution currently with another unsettled spell following into next weekend. However I just wonder weather the ridging might actually be a touch more pokey than currently forecast and break away from the main Azores allowing the jet to buckle somewhat in the mid Atlantic and allow something a little more southerly to develop - just a hunch but keep an eye out for this solution......

Temperature has risen surprisingly quick here. Up to 22C now and 3/4C higher than all the stations around us i.e. Southampton, Yeovil etc. Certainly felt warmer than expected when I was outside a few minutes ago.

Under ideal conditions 31-33c, however as we’ve seen recently uppers of 14c with bundles of clag saw many areas stay below 20c. That chart is probably a 25-27c in the far south.

Again there is no moaning, only my interpretation of what I see in the models, which is yes a primarily dry set of conditions, especially down here, however emphasis will likely be on a notably amount of cloud - or infill. GFS did a pretty good job with its cloud predictions of the grotty/clag coming in from the east over the past week or two so have little reason to doubt it next week currently. Temps about average. Recent history would dictate that this evolving pattern is flattened out somewhat compared to the forecast 6-10 days out, models have over egged the north east extension of the ridging from Az highs in the 6-10day range for years and compared to the forecast 24-36hrs ago this is clearly the case. In 24-48hrs time I'm sure the scenario will have changed or maybe settled into status quo. History suggests to me there is something like a 25/35/40 weighting with 25% being increased ridging, & 40% becoming more unsettled on how this will evolve next week. Just my thoughts.

GFS 06Z rolling out, looks as though a continuing trend of a much less robust ridge from the AZ high. To be honest its just a bulge of less unsettled conditions for couple of days.