Alderc

I think the focus of the next 10days needs to be on identifying the details on what could be a potential severe and damaging spell of weather opposed to the white stuff which unfortunately looks only looks transitionary even for only the highest parts of the UK.

Well it looks as though we are now well and truly in the recent August default mode down here of continuous cloud and intermittent frontal activity. It doesn’t really matter what the weathers been like for the past ten weeks it matter what it’s like now and it’s dreadful this morning. Looks like the next few days will bring the dreaded TM airmass so away from the extreme east it looks like low cloud ceiling, very dull and mild. Longer term an inconsistent set of models and their scattergun ensembles lead me to believe very little sun and genuine .late summer warmth on the cards.

Fortunately it appears the GFS 06Z Ops was something of a cold/wet outlier in the south at least.

Well on a fully Autumnal day where it started at just 7c and is currently raining heavily - remember even on Monday or Tuesday this week, the forecast was pretty much dry all week with just a front or two passing through at the weekend, well its rained almost every day now and Summer is 100% on hold. Scattergum ensembles are a tell tail sign the unsettled conditions will likely dominate. I would fully expect a mobile pattern to dominate for a least 10days, possibly until the end of the month and summer 2018 will likely exit with a whimper.

Looks like some rain coming in, most to the east of the iow, could be a big let down even for those in the extreme east. Highly unusual to see developments from a decaying storm that will contain a lot of outflow.

Looks like the eastern side will develop and cycle, the western end will just turn into a wet mess affecting most of the SE

Same here, my car is now filthy with sand, dust and pollen!!!

Speak for yourself, it needs to warm up. A lot of scruffy mid level Cu around currently not really amounting to much apart from a few spots of rain.

Yep just of the coast towers from herthe the mid level shooting up

There wasn’t a lot of forecast for here 3 days before last weekend and we ended up with 25mm on Sunday alone.....

Gfs 06z turns its pretty unsettled from the middle of next as troughing takes hold and pretty much remains there for the entire second half of the run. It’s really the first time since the end of April there is persistent signal for unsettled conditions to be dominant over the U.K. At moment far enough to away not to cause any concerns but increasingly likely that after a promising start August after the first tercile may default to a pattern so familiar over the past fifteen years.

Has to be said a flip flopping suite of models usually results in an unsettled spells, how long that lasts is uncertain but from many years of model watching it would not surprise me one bit if this time next week we had low pressure makimg headway into the U.K..

Unfortunately it isn’t though

To be fair all the stuff in the Channel is only tapping into a few hundred joules of CAPE so its not surprisingly the activity is sporadic at best.

I think its fair to call it a day for anyone west of IOW now.