Alderc

Absolute pea-souper here this morning! Thick fog banks covering large parts of central and western England this morning, could take until lunchtime to clear. Suspect those hoping to get on Bournemouth beach this morning will have a nasty surprise.

Nope, months ahead for cooler, fresher nights, they can do one for the time being seriously though, much better from ecm over the weekend.

Monday really is up in the air, GFS 06z takes the little feature further south west meaning a very hot day likely with widespread 30’s in the south east and high twenties across almost all of England....

Well GFS suddenly gives maxes of only about 21c on Monday as a weak upper trough looks to move SE over the UK, fortunately it’s appears to be a pretty big outlier within the ensemble pack and the Ops 850s are 5-7c lower than the mean, that’s said it’s by no means on it’s on.

The GFS solution is clearly an outlier, however it wouldn’t be first time a GFS outlier has come off this summer, could really do with that energy being displayed all together, wouldn’t take much for the ecm run to end up like GFS however on the flip of that ECM could easily remain high pressure all the way - while historical events offer no insights into the actual future bank holidays have a tendency to start out warm/hot and rapidly deteriorate through Sunday with the Monday being a hollower, wouldn’t bet against that next weekend.

From an IMBY perspective getting through the long weekend and the following one which is the airshow in Bournemouth with a decent spell of weather would be enough to flip summer into the decent category, that said the models this don’t fill me with joy, there’s quite a difference between GFS and ECM post about a weeks time, the ‘lesser’ models seem to be split as well through this time frame. Normally you’d back the slightly better ECM forecast however it’s not been in great form this summer so have the feeling something a bit more unsettled may still be on the cards. As usual pinning down any cutofffs or upper troughs will be key to the overall picture.

Ugh, big old watering down of the settled and warm end to August, looks like an upper trough could get anchored over the UK and really anything more than the odd decent looking unlikely in the reliable time frame. BH weekend could be a stinker if that low get wedged between high pressure to our west and east!!

Really? Very little to be optimistic about unless your getting on a plane to Cyprus, any warm up is over ten days away! Between now and then GFS has at least 4 varying depths of low pressure to swing across the Uk anchoring is in a dreadful and continuous stream of cloud and fronts, hard to see August being anything other than another poor like so many of the previous 15.

Only three days away, hard not to see something like this happening. Output terrible this morning and summer really does look like being book-ended by some awful conditions.....

Well I’ve taken as long a break as possible from any in-depth model reviews and to be honest having a poke about today sort of makes me wish I hadn’t bothered. Looks like summers going out how it began with stinking northerly blocking and either a succession of Atlantic moisture or slow moving trough near the UK and another pretty naff August. Fridays low wouldn’t be too bad if it was over Denmark by Saturday but it looks like dragging its heels big and still holding an influence into Saturday, Sunday and even Monday. Think I already need another break from the models.

Shower that passed shower initially dropped temp to 25c, but that’s already back to 26c but dew points have rocketed to 21c #moist!

Could be an interesting day, appears to be a little more moisture down south than was suggested yesterday, DPs across the south coast 16-20c. I think anywhere east of east Devon could get spotty thunderstorms anytime from the next couple of hours.

Juicy - currently 23.4c with a 20c DP.

GFS was nearly 5c out here yesterday!

Big hail!!! On Bournemouth clifftops