Alderc

I'm sorry, but on what basis is this colder phase going to occur?

Well a bit disappointed really here (even though I shouldn’t be) everything a few miles too far north meaning it stopped snowing here first and also we where obviously at a disadvantage of the first few hours being precip being rain. Slow thaw overnight with temps not falling below zero and snow should be gone by 10 or 11am.

Highly unlikey, there's maybe another 30mins left of snow to come unless the radar is completely screwed.

Bit worried the precip will clear through before anything settles! It’ll be cleared through before 8 in Bournemouth

Rain rain rain in Bournemouth

June / July, usually down the beach by early May down here.....horrific thoughts snow that late in the year.....

Finally some good output from GFS beyond 10days, springs just around the corner. This week could realistically be the last attempt until next winter for snow for many in the south that being said I wouldn’t like to be a forecaster, so horrendously marginal conditions, will it snow at all, where will the snow line be? Give atmospheric profiles I think GFS is being too aggressive with snow accumulations. I think for many the biggest problem this week will you ice - could be real problem Wednesday morning with all that rain freezing.

Even last march with -14c uppers in place the warm sector nudged in bring a huge temp increase aloft and gave rain within a couple hours of the snow starting. Only the stubbornly cold boundary layer saved us then, if you can call it that and turned it to freezing rain so wouldn’t be surprised to see all rain this week.

Oh absolutely, summer is amazing! While parts up north can struggling in double figures it can be 25c down here. But it’s a hard old slog getting the white stuff down here. Given uncertainties I think both low will nowcasting situations for almost all involved along their path.

Even with decent positioning of the lows this week I’m not convinced that there’s enough cold entangled in these systems to bring snow down the south. Unless you live on the south coast you’ll never understand how difficult it is to get snow to fall let alone lay - 5yrs plus is not uncommon. These lows need to follow a specific path for anything white, we don’t want the warm sectors pushing inland and need a the systems to stall really somewhat in the channel to ensure a flow slightly north of east.

I see charts like this and think 'wouldn't that be nice' then remember this time last week models had maxes for today generally around freezing or just above - its currently 14C, yes Fourteen degrees outside. Zero confidence in anything beyond 120hrs currently.

Ooof 14C here now. Lol this time last week GFS was predicting maxes of 0-1C for today.....fail! I'm of to get my flip flops!

Is this mornings output surprising? No off course not it’s been that sort of winter and while it’s not over yet I can’t help but think the chances of a completely snowless winter down here on the south coast are increasing. I feel like a whole pattern reset is required if we are to get anything cold and snowy, to be honest though I’m already thinking about spring and summer!

Why do I care about whats going on in Scotland when I live in Bournemouth? Double figures widely along the south coast and through the south west, 9c in London and up through the midlands.

Adding insult to injury GFS pushing -10c - -15c uppers down towards the Balkans and Greece next weekend......lets just hope summer highers aren't going to be anchored too far east as well.