Alderc

Upto 31ish again, the sea breeze a long with some high cloud has now knocked things back to 29C.

Well AROME has showers breaking out widely in the next 20mins from the midlands northwards. Only one shower currently but signs on Satellite a Cu field is starting to form.

Looking at radar and satellite the atmosphere being advected into the South has already been turned over. The French cloud shield is already bringing in high cloud from the south tonights just going to be another fail its becoming more obvious by the minute.

Are you saying that rather unsurprisingly its removed the large batch of storms moving into the central south this evening. To be honest its had an absolute shocker down several time this year now. Also nothing like AROME - that's not say either will be right.

Its starting position isn't actually too bad, its been miles just 3-4hrs into some of its run in the past few days, seems to have got a good handle on the precip in northern France and only slightly out with the showers currently over the southwest. However that being said and being very IMBY the run is a complete disaster and for most along the south coasts.

Is that from the Arome?

I think given model performance over the past couple of days its one great big nowcast situation from right now until tomorrow morning across most of England and Wales.

Flow is a bit more SE to NW, so I reckon we got several good hours of heating to come.

Temps much warmer at 9am universally across the South and South East however the flow along the coast is ESE already so think the Arpege is going to be 4-6c out here.

I know you'll all think I'm moaning however I don't like the situation to the south over in northern France. A big decaying storm is likely to send its cloud shield over into the south west as the morning progresses.

Unbelievably its temps are up nearly 3C on yesterday. @Mapantz could be another 32C if the breeze holds off. Arpege has 35C inland just inland from Bournemouth.

Nothing really to suggest supercells, high lightning rates, hail and mega heavy rain aren’t indicators of supercelluar structure. Normal TS can produce amazing shows.

Have to say the model output is very underwhelming once again for southern coasts. Looks like primary destabilisation will occur inland. I suspect the SoR and it’s counterparts will be fully charged this evening @Mapantz @Paul Sherman

Cant be bothered to prolong the agony any more......going to watch crap on TV.

BTW The 12Z models have done an APPALING (yes it needs to be capitals) job with the convection over France, ECM, ICON, Arpege, Arome all have no MCS in northern France, most not even any activity at all. GFS prob the closest, even has little splodge in the Channel.