coldcomfort
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Posts posted by coldcomfort
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I just want it to stop raining so things can begin to dry up a bit, my garden is like a paddy field, but unfortunately whilst the former looks pretty much nailed the latter doesn't. Yes rising pressure should dry things up in the air across the weekend, but the overnight frosts will simply lock a lot of the moisture up in the ground, meaning any drying below our feet will be very limited. I'm hoping the high pressure will drift north next week, allowing a fresh, drying SE'erly to set up, but if that is the case it still looks cold enough for some sharp overnight frosts, so again the same potential problem exists. On a positive note, any return to blowtorch SW'erlies and the rain train from hell looks rather more unlikely than it did just 24hrs ago, so hopefully this new trend will continue.
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18 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
oh dear, backtrack central from the UKMO @120
Indeed....whatever way you try to slice it that UKMO 120 is a proper kick in the nads. The fact that it get's a bit more 'on message' again at 144 is neither here nor there imo, it's like dropping a tenner and finding a fiver.
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Not saying GFS is correct, but I think it's fair to say it's inter run evolution out to 168hrs has been reasonably consistent (probably very consistent in the overall scheme of things) since yesterday 18z. Where we go beyond that is anyone's guess, as it still is beyond 72hrs, but you would expect milder weather to follow over the weekend and into the following week based on the latest 168hr.
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The main positive for me is it's going to become a good deal drier and I'm sure the very many folk who have been flooded would say a big hallelujah to that! OK the 06 GFS doesn't go so far as to destroy the 00 'milder' theme, but it's 'yet another take' on likely events does highlight the huge amount of uncertainty even as early as T+84hrs, so imo the coffin lid is not even on, let alone nailed down at this stage...
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Here's a quick question and I think it is relevant to the model output.
Who can honestly say they would not have taken the overnight model suite if offered it a fortnight ago?
I know I would have...and some!
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Was going to post in the MOD, but having seen the kind (and typical) response to the developing outlook in there I thought nah...
Still so, so much to be resolved here, not least all models struggling to handle the Az low and because of this upgrades for cold are just as likely as further downgrades across the next 48hrs imo. What I struggle to get my head around is the pattern of behaviour that seems to occur every single time a cold spell is flagged. Almost everyone looks at the coldest senario shown, takes it as gospel, ignores any other signal that doesn't support it, then gets all maudlin when something less severe and pleasing to the eye appears....and all over charts several if not many days away.
We all (or at least the vast majority of us) want to see some snow, in fact any snow will do, but unfortunately what will be will be....as ever.
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I think the strength and position of the Az low is going to continue chopping and changing quite markedly across the coming 36-48hrs or 6-8 GFS runs, so if your emotions are tied to every twist and turn then your nerves are likely to be shredded by this time on Saturday....
For what it's worth I think this run has got the general evolution pretty much sorted, with the milder air likely to move north later next week and across the weekend, but who gets rain/sleet/snow as a result is pure conjecture at this stage, as is exactly where we go after that point. As others have said the big picture is a good if not excellent one for wintry weather, but again it's rare for everyone to come out equal and there will no doubt be some big winners and big losers once again in the upcoming snow lottery.
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06 suggests getting this pattern east is going to be like pulling teeth with rusty pliers, but on the plus side it keeps the Az low at bay and eventually introduces a NE'erly. Interesting times ahead and one that will throw up many more emotional highs and lows before the fat lady eventually bursts into song.
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4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:
To be fair, I think his analysis could well be spot on regarding it will be brighter and quite dry next week but there will be some showers around however I think the emphasis will be more on that it will be dry, chilly and sunny, the PPN charts do reflect this. Regarding the other part of his view on the outputs, Its too early to say what will happen.
In terms of this mornings output, if the cold air is slightly more modified then I certainly won't be digging any snow shovels out just yet, the air might be barely cold enough for any showers to fall as snow nevermind settling snow.
Reluctantly I have to agree GS, at least for now. From the middle of next week the uppers on both GFS and ECM look low enough to see falling snow, albeit of the wet variety away from hilly areas, but the very wet and lets be honest very warm ground will not be ideal for lying snow beyond any temporary wet covers. ECM of course does offer a different 'potential' senario of deep LP bringing rain and/or sleet to the south and blizzards for central areas which would clearly lay down a significant cover, but it's all speculation at this juncture. Let's get the LP developed first today and see where it starts to drift tomorrow/Saturday.
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2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:
And downgrades!
Snap...
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2 minutes ago, joggs said:
Who'd of thought,the Az low been the southerners nemesis lol.You couldn't make it up.
Still plenty of time for upgrades.
Indeed, but the beast is only now stating to develop in the eastern Carib, so until it's formed and then moved for at least 48hrs I think all bets are off. Without question there are some very unwelcome looking perts within the 00 GFS ensembles, but there are also some bitterly cold ones, which perfectly reflects the uncertainty. So again yes there is plenty of time for upgrades, but it must be said there is also plenty of time for downgrades too....what isn't in any way disputable however is the fact we have interesting times ahead, which is not something we have been able to say for 6 weeks - at least not from a wintry weather perspective.
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I think we still have to be concerned about whether the cold will manage to flood south across all parts of the UK, I'm wasn't overly confident yesterday and I'm even less so today, that mid Atlantic LP could well prove to be our nemesis.
Edit: Just heard KK say turning colder in the north next week, but temperatures remaining close to average in the south, which neatly and rather frustratingly explains the MO's current thought pattern.
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14 minutes ago, BM4PM said:
Sorry to put a imby type post up, but for myself its not looking that great. Current temp forcast for next week in my area is around 5 degrees.
The uppers are there but im guessing the sst must be still quite warm which inturn must be modifying the air.
I really dont understand as i dont think these charts could get any better.
It's the curse of living in the SW I'm afraid, the only way to proper snow in your neck of the woods is via a Channel low giving strong NNE or NE winds. In the ideal world cold air needs to be well established before the arrival of the LP from the SW and this probably won't be the case this time around (if indeed the ECM evolution verifies), but make no mistake there is a chance and I think very little should be taken for granted atm. The fear I expressed yesterday in the moans thread was the eventual position of let's call it the Azores LP and I still think it is a concern if we are to see the clean evolution to the kind of widespread wintry weather shown on several of yesterdays output....the old adage of if it looks too good to be true then in probably is came readily to mind! All that said though let's be honest, pretty much every one of us on here would have chewed our own arm off a fortnight ago for the kind of synoptic's we are seeing now, even if they have dropped a little from the dizzying heights of yesterday. Plenty of reasons to be very positive, but I like many others would really like to see the MO fully onboard the 'cold train' before getting too excited.
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25 minutes ago, icedust said:
Well what an interesting set of charts is developing. The duration of the upcoming cold spell seems to hinge on developments over the Tropic of Cancer! Watch how models develop a very low latitude low over the Bahamas in the next 24-48h and move this northeast over the next week. Where this ends up is crucial to where the Atlantic High develops. If this Low gets to the Azores this will allow a decent ridge to anchor north to Greenland and not slip south. On the other hand the T+240 ECM keeps the low far west possibly resulting in some decent northwards warm advection over the Atlantic and causing a good ridge north to Iceland/Greenland and block eastward flow south of those islands. On yet the other hand the whole development of this low latitude low may fizzle and we get back to a boring westerly breaking through again. Incidentally, I for one am 100% convinced our record breaking December was caused by 'global warming' with that very persistent warm block out of Africa and across Europe for the whole month. Is this forecast Tropical low also due to 'global warming' or an El Nino feature?
Just posted something similar in the moans thread....won't feel totally comfortable until that LP has both formed and at least begun to drift towards the Azores, because as you rightly say ECM keep it far enough away to allow heights to lower across Greeny and 'milder' Atlantic air to return. High stakes game unfolding here, with still much to be resolved before dusting off the toboggans.
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Looking like a pretty unusual set up emerging, with an LP expected to develop in the eastern Caribbean and drift NE towards the Azores by the middle of next week. I think we need to wait and see firstly IF it develops and begins to move as predicted, but if it does come to rest close to the Azores it should prop up heights over Iceland/Greenland and give us the chance of a decent cold shot. High stakes game for sure which could involve a possible jackpot, or at least one that would seem very much like a jackpot given what we have had to endure so far the Autumn.....sorry, just can't bring myself to call it winter
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Very encouraged by the model outputs across the last 48hrs or so, but quite frankly I don't give a monkeys chuff if it snows or not next week, all I want to see is drier, colder conditions finally becoming established across all parts of the country - the hunt for wintry weather can start in earnest once we have drier up/out. I think unless you have been underneath these recent deluges or have suffered in the past, it's really hard to comprehend just how miserable and soul destroying things can feel. So it's all about priorities for me and the good news is there is still c.9 weeks of winter left, we aren't even half way through yet.
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Ouch!! That update will no doubt see a few dummies spat
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It seems to me that some folk in these forums can and often do make arguments out of absolutely nothing, but this latest offering about who had the worst flooding and who took longest to return to their homes pretty much takes the biscuit. OK it's been exceptionally mild and at least for now there is no imminent or guaranteed change to cold in sight, but surely to goodness we can find better things to discuss than who has experienced the most misery....can't we?
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I'm in no way of fan of mild winter weather, but I am a fan of extreme weather and this month looks like falling about as far into the extreme category as we can get in UK. As well as the incredible warmth, we are also seeing a significant lack of sunshine, which again could well end up breaking low records if the model pan out as currently shown between now and months end. It is also extremely interesting imo to witness just how nature is coping with the warmth, there is so much in bloom now even given the dull, darkness, so one can only imagine how things would look if the past 4-6 weeks had been accompanied by even average amounts of light/sunshine. In our rush to see snow, ice and freezing temps we are perhaps taking our eye off the real ball here, which is a significant shift in the climate unfolding in our lifetime, not across millennia...very interesting times indeed, with plenty more to come it would appear. That woodshed might need to install air-con before too much longer
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We are some distance from deep and crisp and even on the big day based on the 06GFS. The big fella will be sweating in his suit for sure.
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Given the GFS propensity to underdo maxima, 17c cannot be considered out of the question somewhere across the midweek period, which in December is borderline insane imo. By way of context, Newcastle failed to exceed 17c on 15 days in June, 15 in July and 5 in Aug this year, roughly 1 in 3 summer days!
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1 hour ago, knocker said:
Just popping into the woodshed to make sure the barbe's in fine fettle
What I find remarkable is the extent of the anomolous warmth, Greenland to Egypt, Morocco to Murmansk and indeed way beyond. If there is to be a balance in the 2nd half of winter, let's hope it's via this kind kind of extremes, because if so we will all be deep, deep in the freezer for some considerable time.
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Indeed, truly remarkable. 850 temps 12c above average north of the UK on 19th and a solid 5-10c above average over us. Very unlikely to verify as you say, but the way things are going you wouldn't rule out something close to it, with the vast majority of Central and Northern Europe also joining in the warmthfest...can you just imagine the interest if that chart was for the 19th of July!
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44 minutes ago, IDO said:
Stunning GFS 06z run, probably won't happen but this could lead to the warmest December in history!
Models showing the core PV to our NE so very little chance of any Scandi Blocking for the foreseeable:
D10:
The CFS suggesting that the slackening of the flow as the core lower heights settle to the NE will see a resurgance of the Azores high feeding into a Euro high:
The GFS ensembles on side for a milder T850 flow for the next 16 days compared to 30 years averages.
All in line with long range forecasts that there is a low chance of any blocking setting up till at least mid-Jan. Christmas will be the time for us to see if the strat will break what looks a long term pattern; mild alternating with wet and windy, and possibly a PM/AM flow. These trough/ridge combos may be a recurring theme and although the upcoming transient meridional flow looks like this time it will bring mild instead of cold, that could change and the next one, like 2 weeks ago may be a colder variety?
For what it's worth I think this run has got the general evolution pretty much sorted, with the milder air likely to move north later next week and across the weekend, but who gets rain/sleet/snow as a result is pure conjecture at this stage, as is exactly where we go after that point. As others have said the big picture is a good if not excellent one for wintry weather, but again it's rare for everyone to come out equal and there will no doubt be some big winners and big losers once again in the upcoming snow lottery.
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Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Reluctantly I have to agree GS, even calling the upcoming spell a cold one looks to be on increasingly shaky ground imo, colder yes, but average to rather cold pretty much covers what I can see. Once again the 06 GFS is like a dog with a bone regarded a quick return to milder Atlantic air this weekend, no doubt it will probably be something of an outlier but you can't help thinking that eventually it will come up with a run like this that attracts an unwanted level of support from it's ensembles.