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Everything posted by coldcomfort

  1. Indeed, but the beast is only now stating to develop in the eastern Carib, so until it's formed and then moved for at least 48hrs I think all bets are off. Without question there are some very unwelcome looking perts within the 00 GFS ensembles, but there are also some bitterly cold ones, which perfectly reflects the uncertainty. So again yes there is plenty of time for upgrades, but it must be said there is also plenty of time for downgrades too....what isn't in any way disputable however is the fact we have interesting times ahead, which is not something we have been able to say for 6 weeks - at least not from a wintry weather perspective.
  2. I think we still have to be concerned about whether the cold will manage to flood south across all parts of the UK, I'm wasn't overly confident yesterday and I'm even less so today, that mid Atlantic LP could well prove to be our nemesis. Edit: Just heard KK say turning colder in the north next week, but temperatures remaining close to average in the south, which neatly and rather frustratingly explains the MO's current thought pattern.
  3. It's the curse of living in the SW I'm afraid, the only way to proper snow in your neck of the woods is via a Channel low giving strong NNE or NE winds. In the ideal world cold air needs to be well established before the arrival of the LP from the SW and this probably won't be the case this time around (if indeed the ECM evolution verifies), but make no mistake there is a chance and I think very little should be taken for granted atm. The fear I expressed yesterday in the moans thread was the eventual position of let's call it the Azores LP and I still think it is a concern if we are to see the clean evolution to the kind of widespread wintry weather shown on several of yesterdays output....the old adage of if it looks too good to be true then in probably is came readily to mind! All that said though let's be honest, pretty much every one of us on here would have chewed our own arm off a fortnight ago for the kind of synoptic's we are seeing now, even if they have dropped a little from the dizzying heights of yesterday. Plenty of reasons to be very positive, but I like many others would really like to see the MO fully onboard the 'cold train' before getting too excited.
  4. Just posted something similar in the moans thread....won't feel totally comfortable until that LP has both formed and at least begun to drift towards the Azores, because as you rightly say ECM keep it far enough away to allow heights to lower across Greeny and 'milder' Atlantic air to return. High stakes game unfolding here, with still much to be resolved before dusting off the toboggans.
  5. Looking like a pretty unusual set up emerging, with an LP expected to develop in the eastern Caribbean and drift NE towards the Azores by the middle of next week. I think we need to wait and see firstly IF it develops and begins to move as predicted, but if it does come to rest close to the Azores it should prop up heights over Iceland/Greenland and give us the chance of a decent cold shot. High stakes game for sure which could involve a possible jackpot, or at least one that would seem very much like a jackpot given what we have had to endure so far the Autumn.....sorry, just can't bring myself to call it winter
  6. Very encouraged by the model outputs across the last 48hrs or so, but quite frankly I don't give a monkeys chuff if it snows or not next week, all I want to see is drier, colder conditions finally becoming established across all parts of the country - the hunt for wintry weather can start in earnest once we have drier up/out. I think unless you have been underneath these recent deluges or have suffered in the past, it's really hard to comprehend just how miserable and soul destroying things can feel. So it's all about priorities for me and the good news is there is still c.9 weeks of winter left, we aren't even half way through yet.
  7. Ouch!! That update will no doubt see a few dummies spat
  8. It seems to me that some folk in these forums can and often do make arguments out of absolutely nothing, but this latest offering about who had the worst flooding and who took longest to return to their homes pretty much takes the biscuit. OK it's been exceptionally mild and at least for now there is no imminent or guaranteed change to cold in sight, but surely to goodness we can find better things to discuss than who has experienced the most misery....can't we?
  9. I'm in no way of fan of mild winter weather, but I am a fan of extreme weather and this month looks like falling about as far into the extreme category as we can get in UK. As well as the incredible warmth, we are also seeing a significant lack of sunshine, which again could well end up breaking low records if the model pan out as currently shown between now and months end. It is also extremely interesting imo to witness just how nature is coping with the warmth, there is so much in bloom now even given the dull, darkness, so one can only imagine how things would look if the past 4-6 weeks had been accompanied by even average amounts of light/sunshine. In our rush to see snow, ice and freezing temps we are perhaps taking our eye off the real ball here, which is a significant shift in the climate unfolding in our lifetime, not across millennia...very interesting times indeed, with plenty more to come it would appear. That woodshed might need to install air-con before too much longer
  10. We are some distance from deep and crisp and even on the big day based on the 06GFS. The big fella will be sweating in his suit for sure.
  11. Given the GFS propensity to underdo maxima, 17c cannot be considered out of the question somewhere across the midweek period, which in December is borderline insane imo. By way of context, Newcastle failed to exceed 17c on 15 days in June, 15 in July and 5 in Aug this year, roughly 1 in 3 summer days!
  12. What I find remarkable is the extent of the anomolous warmth, Greenland to Egypt, Morocco to Murmansk and indeed way beyond. If there is to be a balance in the 2nd half of winter, let's hope it's via this kind kind of extremes, because if so we will all be deep, deep in the freezer for some considerable time.
  13. Indeed, truly remarkable. 850 temps 12c above average north of the UK on 19th and a solid 5-10c above average over us. Very unlikely to verify as you say, but the way things are going you wouldn't rule out something close to it, with the vast majority of Central and Northern Europe also joining in the warmthfest...can you just imagine the interest if that chart was for the 19th of July!
  14. Very concerning imo, looks like the train just wants to keep on coming.
  15. Not even a fortnight in and the new government are already starting to show their true colours. For all those who voted Tory I'll say just one thing....you reap what you sow.
  16. As with many other so called ongoing reports/investigations, I see his past actions as nothing more than attempt to string things out until he becomes too old or too ill to face the full consequences of his mistakes. What again makes this even worse is many others have been complicit in allowing this to be dragged out for over 1/4 of a century, just like many other have been and remain complicit in covering up the truth about historical child abuse. Reports/investigations no doubt have a place and a part to play, but whilst we effectively continue to allow them unlimited time to draw even the most basic conclusions, those holding power and pulling the strings will remain fully in control.
  17. This whole thing stinks to high heaven, but like all other current investigations into these hideous past actions I don't expect them to go anywhere. The rich, powerful and influential remain completely in control of the strings here, they will no doubt throw another couple of fall guys like Savile to the wolves, but expect them to be either to old or too ill to face prosecution. That should buy another 3-5 years, by which time the next few old or terminally ill sacrificial lambs will be ready for the slaughter.......and so it will go on until time eventually runs out. No doubt the full force of the law will remain directed at the likes of retired DJ's, who might or might not have patted the bum of the makeup lady at the BBC Xmas party in 1972, whilst the likes of those complicit in procuring boys from childrens homes in Jersey for Savile and Ted Heath to abuse and maybe even kill remain at liberty to enjoy their retirement and ill gotten gains. Well worth searching 'Michael Shrimpton exposes Ted Heath and other'....but only if you have a strong stomach! This cancer of child sexual abuse goes right to the very, very top of society imo, which is precisely why the full truth is very unlikely to emerge within most of our lifetimes.
  18. Following another fantastic 'wintry' winter in Chicago, temps today could threaten the 80'f mark....aghhhhh!!! It's all just so unfair.

    1. Scorcher


      It's going a lot colder again there by the weekend...they may have another ice day!

    2. Mokidugway


      He's into skiing so will be happy !!.

    3. Lettucing Gutted

      Lettucing Gutted

      80f followed by ice days, we don't even get those swings in most of our so-called autumns!

    4. Show next comments  144 more
  19. Search Azov Battalion....it will clearly be an eye opener for you.
  20. Mariupol and other areas are currently being defended by a rag tag bunch of rival football hooligans, who have found a common cause to unite them. it's a staggering situation all round and one that has the potential to spiral completely out of control in very short order unless 'the west' begins to pubicly accept that Putins argument is not entirely without merit.
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