coldcomfort
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Posts posted by coldcomfort
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Hands up those who are genuinely surprised to see some cracking wintry charts emerging across the model suite now we are in official meteorological spring? Frankly snow in March just doesn't cut it for me, by this stage I'm looking for building warmth to match the lengthening days, the last thing I want to see is cold, raw and sleety conditions when it's still light until close to 7pm. However, what I want ultimately won't matter one iota, our seasons are well and truly out of kilter and having endured months of mild extended autumn across winter I am fully expecting to endure months of cold extended winter during spring...and no doubt we will also have to endure month of extended spring across summer, with October again offering the best chance of summery conds.....
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4 hours ago, snowtimenow said:
Sod winter roll on Spring
Couldn't agree more, other than adding the word dry before spring!
That said away from Scotland it's been pretty much autumn since Nov 1st, so a change to winter between Mar-May and then a Jun-Aug spring would not come as any major surprise....nor would any proper summer synoptics again getting shoved into the Sep-Oct period.
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10 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:One thing I do know for sure, and I'll wager there are a lot of people here who'll go along with this. My grass (thanks to the overly mild season) has not stopped growing and is now starting to resemble a jungle. Desperately in need of cutting but it is soaking wet in parts, waterlogged in others.
Badly need a sustained period of dry anticyclonic weather now...but then anticyclones seem to be as rare as snow at the moment.
Thankfully I managed to get a cut in of my near saturated just after New Year, but my grass has also grown all extended autumn as is now a good 3 inches long again...would have been at least 6 without the cut though!. Also have a very wet and in some places waterlogged back lawn, front one is better as NE facing and also slightly sloping, but looking at it again now after this morning deluge I am really struggling to imagines my normal summer back lawn reappearing this year. I suspect the grandkids won't need their paddling pools, they will probably be able to splash around in the borders!
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1 minute ago, cornish snow said:
Yep,think iv'e had enough now,it aint gonna happen this winter,me think's.
Typical though,had a break in north devon last weekend. Went up on Exmoor,not a flake in site,got back to the site,turned on T.V to see kids building snowmen on Dartmoor
Cant even get pick the right Moor!!
Looking for some spring warmth now and hopeing for a nice summer.
Have enjoyed the roller-coaster that is this forum,will def be back,next year.
As they say down here "cheers and gone"
Trust me the stuff on Dartmoor was barely worthy of being called snow, just a wet mess really. A good summer is now needed to at least provide some seasonal balance and you would have to think another cool wet one couldn't possibly follow what we have endured this extended autumn, but it's prudent never to lose sight of what an appalling climate we have and if things can go wrong somewhere then chances are it will be here!
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On 11 February 2016 at 9:20 AM, Nick L said:
Absolutely. That's what separates genuine LRFs from charlatans like James Madden and Ian Brown.
Maddens antics are well known and well documented, but please point me towards some of Ian Browns charlatan style LRF's plz.
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Welcome to the UK... home of right synoptics, wrong time of year! No surprise whatsoever to see a flip in the models, from the normal winter service of initial cold being downgraded to mild, to the normal spring service of initial mild being upgraded to cold! Yes I know it is still official meteorological winter and most of us will take anything white that we can get our hands on, but I bet come the summer solstice all of us will be pig sick of feeling cold!
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28 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:
I'd be happy with a slushy mess after the last 3 winters we've had. Beggars can't be choosers.
In that case I hope you get it and maybe even something a bit better, but I'm afraid the kind of rain to sleet/snow to mild Atlantic just doesn't cut it for me.....would rather see it stay dry so the ground could continue it's slow recovery.
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37 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
not sure why theres fuss over possible back edge snow on wednesday - falling onto wet ground? surely itll just be a slushy mess.
Indeed.....any front edge snow looks very marginal away from the higher parts of Scotland, so we are reliant on the undercutting cold air to turn the rain to snow. Considering most places will have seen a soaking before this process gets underway, your 'slushy mess' is probably best case scenario for lowland areas imo, with cold rain or sleet being the most likely options.
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16 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:
To be honest I just don't see it. The showers currently affecting East Anglia are prominently rain and that's in a cold NE airflow.
I think the peak district may see snow; but low lying central areas will surely be rain. Looking at how this winter has panned out I don't expect any surprises.
Have to agree, the slightly better speed and orientation of the front on the overnight runs does hold out at least a little hope, but frankly I just can't get over enthusiastic about an hour or two of wet snow, which even if it it did settle would quickly get smashed up by the returning Atlantic on Thu-Fri. I guess the amount of interest in midweeks potential event underlines just what a shocking winter this has been for cold and who knows, 10 years down the line we may see similar kinds of excitement over an impending ground frost! Roll on spring now imo.
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18 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
no different in summer.. the trick is not to believe the extreme runs, or check with the noaa anomaly charts to see if they support an fi chart.
Indeed....it seems that despite dozens if not hundreds of Groundhog Days nothing really changes, the most extreme runs get talked up by the most extreme talkers, then when things inevitably start to downgrade it all starts to turn a bit sad really.
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2 hours ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
Sorry what do you mean a Cornwall and devon event only?..what are u expecting there?
The precip band in association with Fri night/Sat mornings low is getting edged ever further SW'wards, as happened with tonights low. As far as Devon and Cornwall are concerned this still has the potential to be an 'evert' (or perhaps more accuracy 'another event'), both through heavy rain and later strong winds, but elsewhere any impact is looking increasing marginal. Clearly on the leading edge of the rain there is also the chance of some snow somewhere across the SW quadrant of the UK and another chance as the cold air undercuts from the NE again later, but only on high ground for the most part as things stand imo.
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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:
A much improved 06z run in short - medium term
The flow allignment between 60 & 84 is more Easterly - with less mixing & the slider low at 48 on a more southerly route-
a very good run for wales as potentially a bit of snow sat -
Perhaps even some wintry / snow flurries in the ESE sun-
all setting up to be a very cold run-
T84
s
Really? I appreciate this has been a god awful winter and all that, but to suggest the 06 run was, is or was setting up to be 'very cold' is a bit misleading to be fair, at least in my opinion. Mean temps will be on the cold side for sure, but they don't look like being a million miles from the seasonal average, so whilst anything colder is welcomed by most I think we still need to keep things in some sort of context.
06 GFS continues the trend of edging everything SW, so before too long Saturday could well be a Cornwall and Devon event only.
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Well several in the MDT seem to be getting rather exited about the prospects of snow Fri-Sat, but a few hours of wet, sleety flakes just doesn't cut it for me, especially with absolutely zero chance of it hanging around away from higher elevations. I'd feel very differently if it was now approaching mid Dec, but it's approaching mid Feb and the time of year were near perfect synoptics are required to deliver a notable wintry spell...what's currently in prospect for Fri-Sat is a long way from fitting that description imo. Roll on spring.
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Well it appears that the near ritual flogging of the dead horse in the MDT might even be coming to an end following the overnight runs, with even the normal 'positive thinking non towel chuckers, rather conspicuous by their absence. I must admit I chucked mine back in mid Jan, but I was sneakily hoping the old reverse psychology might kick in and give us two or three decent blasts across the 2nd half of extended autumn, but as it stands with only 23 full days left to run even one blast looks pretty much out of the question now. RIP winter 15/16, you have been a miserable bar steward and you will no doubt go down in the annuls of history as the winter that never was.
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23 minutes ago, MP-R said:
Haha, you're probably right, or not exactly the same anyway. However, the theme of a low running through or over the southern UK next Thurs/Fri followed by a chiller settled spell has been a common theme over the last day or two. High rainfall totals would certainly be an issue for many. The main difference on that particular run was the clearance eastwards and undercut of cold air.
Agreed, but once again it's all a week and more away. Just looked at the 06 (I still can't used to it starting at 09.30!!) and to be fair it's not a million miles away overall, but it does look like the pattern would quickly flatten again during the following weekend.
EDIT: It does and FI looks hideous as a result...back to the drawing board!
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44 minutes ago, MP-R said:
Prize for most interesting chart of the GFS 00Z run goes to this one:
Classic rain-to-snow event for many with plenty of precipitation around as cold uppers arrive on the scene. A correction south of the low zipping through on the 11th/12th would bring more widespread snow. It will interesting to see whether the 06Z continues this - I believe this would be a more likely/possible outcome than a full blown northerly or easterly.
By the way, what models/data are the N-W ten-day forecasts based on? The current one for my location echoes the GFS but I would guess it considers a variety of models?
But it won't be there on the next run...and therein lies the problem of late, but thankfully we are not seeing the Dec pattern so if nothing else there is at least some hope for now.
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Apart from the obvious disappointment over the lack of any proper cold so far this season, the other thing that stands out about it is when on the rare occasion we did see the chance of some better prospects, we have never got any proper cross model agreement. This morning GFS looks promising, ECM has swung the other way, yesterday the polar opposite was true. The other frustration is that on several occasions we have seen 2 out of the 3 main models carrying a colder senario at 144, but each time they have backtracked to the milder one....and that has happened with all of them at some point. I guess in truth these colder prospects have always been 'rather longer term', so changes were not exactly unexpected, but even by the law of averages you would have though one of these colder set ups would have come to fruition. How much faith we can have in GFS over ECM this morning is frankly anyones guess, but given what has happened so far this winter the smart money is probably on a much less cold 12 GFS and a much colder 12 ECM...
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16 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
here with full 13 pages of January anomaly charts and daily comments as requested
second pdf for net weather-2 feb 2016.pdf
for what it is worth the apparent 'solid' charts last evening have had a hole knocked in them this morning with the GFS output dropping the main idea the 3 previously had. It could be just a wobble but it tends to add more uncertainty to whether any meaningful westerly cold incursion will occur. I would still suggest it is about 60:40 on it happening, last evening would have been 75;20!
The airflow is still cold rather than mild but it will have to cross the whole Atlantic.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
What is the other 5% on JH....a massive blizzard followed by a 2 week freeze...
Frankly the GFS and UKMO again fail to inspire this morning, we just can't seem to drag any proper cold air southwards, at least not far enough south anyway. ECM does look better and rather more promising for cold in the longer term, but it has done so on several occasions this extended autumn, so again it's hard to get inspired by day 9 and day 10 stuff...especially in view of the fact that by then there will only be a fortnight of meteorological winter left.
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1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:
ok.... its feb 1 and theres no sign of any possible cold evolution, id have thought that it is now rather unlikely that we will get a decent cold spell this winter outside the odd couple of days here and there.
however, the jet cannot blow forever, its not jupiter! and there will be a settlement at some point in the future. i must admit, and i dont like it, that march might well turn out to be the coldest month of the season...Wouldn't be a disaster in March imo, but I have a horrible feeling that April and even May will be much colder than average, in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see the Apr CET turn out to be lower than last Dec. Nothing worst than seeing potent northerlies bringing frequent snow showers in April imo, but this spring has got that kind of setup written all over it for me.....I just hope I'm wrong!
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So here we go.....last month of winter, charts that continue not to inspire, torpedo off and running, but to god knows where. First mention of Spring in the MOD gets met with a post from Fergie that says don't be too sure, the rain just keeps coming, winds howling, everything budding, grass a foot long, birds mating. Winter 15/16 so far has been an utter abomination, in fact we really haven't had any proper seasonality here for years - it feels like it has been varying shades of autumn since Dec 2010.
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Well with 62 days of so called winter (must be against the Trade Descriptions Act!) gone and only 29 to go, the models are still failing to inspire me regarding a chance of a proper country wide cold spell, but the one straw to clutch is we are not likely to see a repeat performance of the Dec pattern as we go into Feb. That said however things certainly look to remain very unsettled, even stormy at times, with the south possibly seeing rather more of the wind/rain action as time goes by. Would I prefer wet and windy with ave temps to very mild, wet and windy? Bit of Hobson choice really, but in the absence of any snow/frosts I'd probably prefer to keep the heating bill down on balance....this winter has been an absolute shocker so far and it will take a monumental turn around and at least a 2 week freeze just to say we have salvaged something - but it doesn't look likely!
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Yet another set of 'jam tomorrow' runs from GFS, which has been very much a feature since we moved into the second half of winter, with the first half not even having any jam at all....no doubt the winter jam will arrive in spring
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Well after a Dec that was like an Oct and a Jan that has been like a Nov, all I want to see is a Feb that is actually like a kin Feb....and looking at the latest runs and the upper air pattern, that might, might just happen!! Really shouldn't be too much to ask for should it?
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58 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Its game on for the north, Scotland looks quite wintry at times and if the ecm 12z sticks to the 00z theme then cold air will flood south to all areas next week...The power of positive thinking
How about the power of rational thinking? Kind of makes more sense to me and lessens the likelihood of further significant disappointments, IF as is often the case at this range things don't quite go to plan.
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Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Really?? No real surprise to see some cold winter eye candy appearing in the models now the search for warmth has begun in earnest. Said it before and I'll say it again, UK..... undisputed world champion of right synoptics, wrong time of year, whatever the season.