coldcomfort
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Posts posted by coldcomfort
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10 minutes ago, knocker said:
The ecm not dissimilar to the GFS. A cool showery regime over the weekend in the light NW giving way to interludes of sunshine and rain in this mobile pattern until the end of the run. Quite a wet day on Wednesday if anywhere near right. All in all quite perturbing
Not sure we can take the little feature to the SW completely out of play for the weekend yet either, especially across your neck of the woods and perhaps the S in general. Once into the kind of flow predicted by Fri the models really struggle to handle this kind of thing.....frankly I'm perturbed too!
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19 hours ago, johnholmes said:
The heat wave just receding, for many parts of England and Wales, was not well predicted in my view regardless of which model type one used. I openly admit to seeing no sign of several days of heat, let alone storms, using the 6-10 day anomaly charts. An odd day here and there was certainly to be expected with the flow being predicted but not what happened. Also one poster suggested the probability of anywhere exceeding 30C was beginning to look unlikely.
So to have anyone suggesting that another spell of several days heat is unlikely before we descend into more autumnal weather is short sighted in my view.
Nothing is showing in the anomaly charts so for 14 days or so no more than an odd day here and there, and most likely in the SE 1/4 of the UK but who knows, I certainly do not pretend that I do.
Please don't think this is a dig at anyone it is not, it is just a post to suggest another spell of heat is certainly possible.
Whilst this is obviously correct (and I'm not sure anyone has suggested there will be no more heat this summer) the overnight runs again make pretty grim viewing if like me you are looking for a fine, warm and settled spell, with both the big two suggesting largely unsettled conditions will persist right across the first week of August at least. IF this verifies it will effectively leave us with under 4 weeks of official meteorological summer left, but if you take FI on GFS at face value we are pretty much down to less than 3 weeks...and it must be said the T+384hr hardly screams imminent return to summer thereafter either.
Really struggling to see a way out of this deteriorating pattern atm, with a few transient ridges offering the best hope of any sunshine and warmth across the south and east in particular, but if I'm honest the outlook is an extremely disappointing one from a personal perspective.
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2 minutes ago, Karl. said:
There is ample room for reality and hope. There is no reason why we won't have another summery spell in early or mid August..I'm seeing hints of it in the extended range and even next week indicates improvement for the south due to the ebb and flow of the Azores high and lower heights to the northwest / north. The reality is the next week or so looks cooler and unsettled but not a washout.
In that case does it not beg the question, should there be ample room for what most would perceive as overly negative comments too, as long as they are backed up with charts? I accept this is a difficult one however and agree with your point above re signs of an improvement next week across the south if nowt else.
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Agh the age old MDT argument, reality v hope. To my mind reality belongs in here and hope in the moans and ramps thread, but as last week proved hope can at times become reality, seemingly despite the dominant background signals.
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Nothing in the overnight outputs to enthuse me, let alone excite me. Watched John Hammond last evening dangle the carrot of another plume later next week (albeit a low chance), but I suspect even that will be dropped this evening, with the Atlantic looking set to remain firmly in control deep into August. ECM is especially disappointing this morning imo, with nothing more than some brief, transient ridges between what look to become increasing deep and active areas of low pressure. GFS continues to tease in FI with some lovely looking charts, but whilst they remain at that range they are probably best ignored for a whole host of reasons, not least sanity!!
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6 minutes ago, knocker said:
The trough would appear to becoming more dominant towards the end of the ten day period but this is probably the normal fluctuation as it weakens again in the later period but the pattern is essentially the same. The challenge here is to find different ways of saying the same thing.
Indeed, the 06 franks this very well in the post T+168 range, with what can only be described as a pretty dire period to come around the turn on the month. Indeed the size, depth and persistence of the toughing looks very ugly post 240hrs and IF it verifies even close to whats shown we can definitely write off week one of August and fear significantly for week two also imo. Really not what most of us want to see, especially when we're still awaiting the start of summer!
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Without question the biggest cause of arguments and bickering in this thread is when anyone dares mention either cold breaking down in Winter or heat breaking down in Summer, in fact even the word breakdown itself tends to cause backs to rise in many. It really is time folk learnt to accept this is a model discussion thread, where we should discuss what the models are showing and if that happens to be a breakdown, then those who mention it deserve not to be attacked for so doing.
On that point a change to significantly cooler air looks on the cards for all after midweek and if ECM is to be believed the weekend will see a return to trough domination and a rather cool, showery mix in general for next week. As as often been the case of late GFS is not quite so negative, but even it suggests the heat and humidity of the coming few days will become a distant memory from Friday, with a much cooler Atlantic flow predominating....ditto UKMO at T+144hrs.
Bottom line here is the setup some of us were talking about a few days ago re the 10-14 day period is still pretty much the same. Despite the near term heat there is no real pattern change, indeed there was never likely to be any real pattern change, this is in reality a welcome blip - nothing more, nothing less. Probably best to enjoy it and just accept it's neither here to stay or likely to return anytime soon....ultimately it will be much better for the blood pressure!
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1 hour ago, knocker said:
It looks like that after a blip at the end of the week a short period of drier and pleasant (not hot) weather may be in the pipe line to complete the ten day period with HP edging north to the west and the upper trough in decline. But this may well be short lived. During the last days of July the EC32 amplifies the pattern with ridging into Greenland and a trough down over the UK. Ergo winds veering North westerly portending some unpleasant chilly weather for a few days. In fact although by this time the trough has moved east and the Azores HP becomes more influential the temps remain below average up to August 7th.
Agreed looking at the bigger picture - on a slightly positive note, at least the 06 is less grim than the 00 was, tying in nicely with what you say regarding a brief spell of relatively pleasant weather to follow what might be a rather spectacular midweek breakdown for some.
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Without question the 00 runs now pretty much franks a very warm, even hot spell for most parts of the UK during the first half of the working week, but the breakdown already looks nailed on and given expected height rises to the N may well morph into another protracted cool, unsettled spell to close out the final 10 days of July. So at this stage we are looking at a 24-48hr event for most and perhaps a 72hr event for the few. Not saying I wouldn't take it at this stage in light of what summer has delivered so far, but from a purely personal perspective I'd have preferred to see much more muted temps coupled with the prospect of a pattern change, that might well have deliver some sort of balance for the 2nd half of so called summer.
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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:
Wednesday has the potential to be hot too on all main models, but it will all be about timing and local differences - Camborne probably least favoured for heat on that day
Going up Camborne Hill coming down......don't worry, Knocker will get it
Welcome (at least from my perspective) signs of something warmer and initially drier next week, especially for England and Wales, with HP building in and then trying to hang on by the skin of it's teeth according to GFS. ECM and UKMO clearly go for a slightly different take on things, with much warmer air pumping up from the continent for a time early next week, before eventually it all goes bang. Whichever way you slice it things should become warmer generally and even very warm locally, but the pattern change required to bring a lengthy spell of settled weather still looks as far away as ever imo.
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59 minutes ago, 40*C said:
It looks very hot in Spain and Portugal on them gfs 06z charts. If this evolving of the pattern continues then August could bring some very hot and humid conditions here, hopefully not just for London as I'm fed up with this North/South divide every summer its like a sickness.
It's been hot across Iberia for weeks and even parts of SW France have seen the high 30's, so no reason to a suppose any of that heat will migrate this far north as we go into the final month of meteorological summer imo, though of course it might. Whilst it's hugely galling to sit here in 13c blowtorch SW'erlies in Jan while Greece gets sub zero temps and snow, seeing the 15c 850mb line pushing as far north as the Arctic coast of Russia next week really does take the proverbial
In fact looking at Noril'sk, deep inside the Arctic Circle and the most northerly city in the world, temps from Fri-Tue will be in the range 27-31c!
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1 hour ago, Karl. said:
Hi coldcomfort,
I take on board your observations / criticism but it's just my style, I like to think I give a reasonably balanced view of the run I'm describing but I also add a dash of optimism and inject some humour when the charts allow it and by the same token, if it's a poor run I don't hold back either..it's just the way I post.
Fair points....well looking at the 06 GFS out to 144hrs it really is a case of close, but just not quite close enough, at least not north of the M4 corridor. Obviously the boundary of summer will wax and wane across subsequent runs, but at this stage we just cannot seem to consistently build pressure high enough or far enough north to give hope of protracted warm, settled weather nationally....which is becoming almost as frustrating as being stuck under a strongly mobile pattern! All that said, compared to what most of us have endured across the last 5 or 6 weeks, there are grounds for at least some optimism imo....I'll take that for now!
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10 minutes ago, B87 said:
Disappointingly average? If the summer had been average so far, you wouldn't be seeing so many complaints. It's been cooler than average and extremely cloudy.
I see once again that any hint of some normal summer weather is fast going down the drain on the latest runs.
Fair point.....I'll shut up
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41 minutes ago, Karl. said:
Is that another dig at me knocker?
It's not funny, you do realise we are nearly half way through July now and summer is 50 percent done, yet most of us are still waiting for it to start...at least I'm doing my bit to lift the gloom in here!
Hi Karl. Perhaps I'm wrong but I thought the idea in here was to comment on the models, not lift the gloom by posting the best charts and with it your hopes for better weather. I do get the fact you accompany your posts with charts that back up what you are saying, but lets be honest during summer in particular it's not hard to find a set of them or maybe some perts that show impending/potential warmth or even heat, especially when looking beyond T+180hrs. Currently there is nothing that I can see to suggest any significant changes to the disappointingly average weather overall so far this summer; yes the south will see some warmth at times across the next 7-10 days, but for the bulk of us it's more of the same....whether we like it or not. Yes I think we all realise 50% of meteorological summer is almost behind us and no doubt many are as frustrated by that fact as you and I, but building hopes with good charts against overall background signals that don't really support them will ultimately deepen not lift the mood of many imo. Not a rant mate, just an observation.
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33 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
UKMO is almost a non event....GFS hangs on to a smidgen of heat, but all of these are pale imitations of the high pressure that appeared across the board on yesterdays 00z runs. Looking like the Atlantic will probably win, just a question of timing. The ensembles still vary massively at day 4, so plenty to iron out. We could still get an ok spell of weather down south, but I think up north it's looking like a non starter.
Indeed.....another relatively poor set of runs regarding summery weather, especially in the north, where it will again be pretty miserable at times. As expected the overnight runs look a blend of the dire stuff of Monday and the overly good charts of yesterday (as often proves to be the case), with distantly average conditions prevailing into week 4 of July on a national scale. As ever favoured parts of the S and E should see some decent warmth, but farther N and W any potentially warmer air will be accompanied by a good deal of low cloud, mist and/or drizzle, effectively making it's presence useless unless muggy nights float your boat.
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Looking at the 12 GFS out to T+60 I think it's heading towards a less favourable weekend, especially across the N, with everything shaping up to be a couple hundred miles farther south. Still nowhere near as grim as yesterdays 00 however, probably somewhere between that and todays 06.
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7 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:
Agreed ..to my untrained eye still looks to be a fairly mobile pattern with areas of higher pressure moving across then away into the containment then back to square one and repeat...so drier warmer spell followed by more unsettled spell and back to drier warmer spell...
Agreed....given the current modelling struggles I think it equally unwise to get too carried away over todays 00 runs as it was depressed over yesterdays. Really can't see any firm evidence of a proper pattern change, perhaps a pattern tweak would be a more appropriate description, but if that tweak delivers at least some decent warmth I'd be more than happy. All eyes now on the 06, because if anything it was even worse than the 00 run yesterday, so it will be interesting to see if it franks the run from earlier.
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21 hours ago, coldcomfort said:
Is there really any need for this kind of response?
Whilst the general downgrade is disappointing (to say the least!) as others have said not all the models have been onboard the onset of summer across the last 24-48hrs, so given the history when this is the case I'm not sure we should be entirely surprised at the recent turn of events. I can't help thinking having swung one way there will be some sort of movement/adjustment back towards drier, warmer conditions this weekend across the next day or two, especially for the south, but it has to be said that any signs of the pattern change needed to deliver some hot summer weather that most of us crave looks as far away as ever at this stage.
At the end of the day however what we are seeing is pretty much what summers deliver in the UK - just as winter cold is always a bonus, so is summer heat, expecting rather than hoping for either WILL more often than not result in significant disappointment imho.
24 hours is indeed a long time in weather! Yes I expected some sort of movement/adjustment back towards drier, warmer conds, but what we have seen overnight is a complete volte face from both GFS and ECM. So just as like this time yesterday, I will remain very sceptical about what is currently being progged actually delivering...in fact I think we will see another movement/adjustment back to other way across the next few runs. That said, even if this does occur things look a good deal more rosy than they did just 24hrs ago, especially for the south, where it might actually feel like summer this weekend if you use your imagination....
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22 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
My response was triggered by the frustration I have with certain members who only seem to appear when the outlook is poor for fine summer weather. The poster I quoted is a prime example. I make no secret of the fact that I prefer mild weather in the winter, but I hardly ever post in the forum at all in the winter- last winter I could have had a field day saying 'I told you so' but I saw no need. There is no need for the self-congratulatory tone in certain posts.
Interesting to see the BBC are now showing increased cloud for Friday compared to this morning's forecast- but are still showing temperatures reaching the mid 20s in the South East at the moment for the weekend. It would certainly back up the changes in this morning's runs from the UKMO and ECM.
I get that, but equally if everyone said something similar each time they found a post from any particular member frustrating, it would be chaos in here. Anyway, moving on. The 12 GFS has everything a little farther NW on Fri, so a slight improvement on the 00 and 06 runs at T+102hrs, lets hope it continues!
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7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Indeed, the 6z is just a continuation of the correction we've seen this morning - i.e. more of what we've had all summer thus far. At this rate there may be no warm up at all.
There does appear to be a clear and present danger that we can't break this pattern fully across the remainder of July, which if correct will mean some parts of the UK will go into the last 3rd of meteorological summer still awaiting it's start. I know some will rush to say it's far to early to right off the rest of the month when only half way through week 2, but quite frankly I have seen that kind of thing suggested time and time again in here during both summer and winter, only for the prediction to turn out to be perfectly correct despite it's general unpopularity.
August will need to deliver and do so big time for this season not to be another one that patently flouts the Trade Descriptions Act, but I suspect we will again be left waiting for early Autumn to deliver something resembling summer....once again all too little, too late.
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3 hours ago, Scorcher said:
Had a feeling you'd be on again this morning to congratulate yourself. A really gutting set of runs from the Euros for those wanting a change this morning.
Is there really any need for this kind of response?
Whilst the general downgrade is disappointing (to say the least!) as others have said not all the models have been onboard the onset of summer across the last 24-48hrs, so given the history when this is the case I'm not sure we should be entirely surprised at the recent turn of events. I can't help thinking having swung one way there will be some sort of movement/adjustment back towards drier, warmer conditions this weekend across the next day or two, especially for the south, but it has to be said that any signs of the pattern change needed to deliver some hot summer weather that most of us crave looks as far away as ever at this stage.
At the end of the day however what we are seeing is pretty much what summers deliver in the UK - just as winter cold is always a bonus, so is summer heat, expecting rather than hoping for either WILL more often than not result in significant disappointment imho.
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I fear the low to the NW will be the bane of our lives next week, bringing a return to largely unsettled conditions after an all too brief respite this weekend. Looking at the ECM 240hr (for what it's worth at that range) it's very difficult to see a sustained rise of pressure developing across the remainder of June, even in the south, so for us lovers of fine, warm and settled conditions let's hope the GFS is rather more on the money.
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59 minutes ago, 40*C said:
it seems the met office have now ditched the idea of the azores high fully moving northwards in July:
UK Outlook for Tuesday 28 Jun 2016 to Tuesday 12 Jul 2016:
Unsettled weather is most likely across the northern half of the United Kingdom through late June and early July, with showers or longer spells of rain at times, although there should also be some dry and bright spells in between. Southern and in particular southeastern areas are likely to see lengthier spells of drier, warmer and sunnier weather, but still with some occasional rain or showers. The temperature is likely to be generally around normal for the time of year, but perhaps a little above average at times in the south.
Sadly no real surprise in this change of outlook, with nothing in the 10-14 day 500mb chart being suggestive of the kind of changes needed to promote a lengthy fine, warm spell, despite another one being advertised in FI. Looks to me as if the best we can hope for is a few brief ridges like the one expected this weekend, but overall low pressure looks set to dominate deep into the last week of Jun at least, with the north and west bearing the brunt of the unsettled weather as per in this all too familiar UK summer setup.
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The GFS eye candy (up there with some of the rubbish we see in winter) has most certainly disappeared this morning. Looks like the best we can now expect next week is a north/central-south split, with any dry, warm weather confined to the far SE, but ECM does look to have swung a little too far the other way for now.
In fact looking at Noril'sk, deep inside the Arctic Circle and the most northerly city in the world, temps from Fri-Tue will be in the range 27-31c!
Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
We are not talking about the past though, we are discussing the future. Moreover there is nothing negative about what is being said, we are simply commenting on what the models show going forward which is the purpose of this thread...there are others available in which to discuss past weather.