coldcomfort
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Posts posted by coldcomfort
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22 minutes ago, Karl. said:
It was a light hearted observation, no need to be so sensitive about it..I'm frosty but I love heat..go figure!
Probably best to keep any sort of personal comments completely out of the equation, as they don't always come across as intended.
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Just now, Karl. said:
I may be optimistic but I'm also realistic and I never mislead anyone, I only ever describe what the charts are showing. There is this myth that I only cherry pick the best charts but that's not the case at all. Anyway, the models still show a hot spell next week, how long it lasts is too early to say!
Which is precisely what I did, so I'm baffled as to why you felt the need to have a dig about my name. Believe me as the owner of a business that is very dependent of fine weather I just as disappointed as you and many others over what appears to be a downgrade, but I'm not going to let emotion get in the way of what I see in front of my own eyes and as I said before this is far from done and dusted....in fact we are still 5 or 6 days from it even starting for many.
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2 minutes ago, Karl. said:
So you think that's it then, because the charts have downgraded the heat that they won't upgrade it again later today or in the next few days?
That is why you're called cold comfort I guess!
Absolutely not....I think this because it's no different to what I've been thinking all along with regards to this spell. Said as much yesterday regarding both the indifferent weekend and the potentially longevity of the spell, the overnight runs have not changed my mind, but they have injected a well needed dose of realism to the debate imo. Yes there is plenty of scope for upgrades, in fact the familiar pattern I spoke about often sees original eye candy being downgraded (both summer and winter), only for slight upgrades to then follow across the next couple of days as the models struggle to nail the detail. What I described above is what the charts are showing this morning, a claim that you make frequently to defend your obvious optimistic way of viewing things, but that's not to say things won't change again...in fact I guarantee they will.
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7 hours ago, Steve Murr said:
Some people getting carried away talking about records & 2003 - theres a reason its a record because the conditions were totally optimal -
The current outlook doesnt look as good - infact the evening trend hasnt been that great - moving the hot uppers eastwards quicker - certainly a hot plume on the cards however its still a few days away yet so the pendulum could swing either way !
Also looks to windy for record breaking heat - ideal conditions are dead calm still stagnent air -
I will go with a punt of 34c being the top temp
Indeed.....the overnight runs have certainly delivered something of a reality check this morning and we really do need to put the upcoming spell into some sort of reasoned context imo. To my mind the weekend looks distinctly average for the majority of the UK, though depending on where the trough ends up the far south could be warm, locally very warm. Even Monday whilst fine and dry for most is not overly warm across the northern half of the UK, pleasant probably best describes things for me, but clearly the southern half will become warm/very warm, locally hot. Tuesday now appears to be the peak of the heat for England, but a good deal more cloud than originally expected looks like pegging temps back on the warm/very warm locally hot category here, whilst further north and west frontal activity will keep it a good deal cooler with rain likely at times, especially later. Wednesday still looks very warm/locally hot across eastern and southeastern England, but elsewhere it quickly becomes much cooler and fresher. So as things currently stand a nationwide heatwave does not look the form horse by any stretch of the imagination, in fact away from England and Wales a brief warm up is probably the best that folk can hope for. One or two members may have ruffled a few feathers lately with their forthright appraisal of upcoming spell, but the fact is the latest outputs back their thought pattern far more that that of those getting carried away over 22c 850's a week hence. We have been here so, so many times in both summer and winter, I'm really baffled why the same mistakes keep getting made over eye candy charts so far into the future, when we all know even nailing down the coming 48hrs is rarely easy.
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49 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
This would be very surprising I think- just the likely evolution would suggest that the UK would have to be hit by the heat at some stage.
The high is going to edge eastwards and as this happens it is going to draw the very warm air up from the south.
The question marks for me are simply for how long it's going to last.
Agreed, I think the odds of a complete miss are probably the same as a week long heatwave, i.e very low. That said there will be some places that avoid any heat, especially across the far northwest and even the most favoured spots in the E/SE of England are probably looking at 48-72hrs tops. Whether we can see some sort of reload thereafter remains to be seen, but there is a real danger that a deep trough lying from Iceland to the UK will prevent the AZ and Scandi HP's from linking, trapping us into a cool, unsettled pattern for week 4 of Aug.
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I think some sort of plume early next week looks fairly inevitable now, but we are again looking a 1 day event in Scotland/N Ireland and a 2-3 day event for the bulk of England and Wales. Thereafter at least according to GFS the longer term looks distinctly uninspiring, so given the choice between what the models now appear to be settling on or the less intense but much more protracted fine spells flagged late last week, I defiantly chose the latter. Yes it will be nice to see another blast of heat, but that is currently all it looks to be and it's longevity as even will be entirely dependent on your location.
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12 minutes ago, cheese said:
Funny thing is, if it's heat you're after I'd say the ECM is better this morning than the GFS.
Still, we've been here before. Going by the doom and gloom that's been posted throughout this thread I was certain July would be a stinker of a month but in reality it turned out fine. Things change quickly. This is all several days away - the final solution is far from being found.
Eventually yes, but the weekend does not look particularly warm and there is clearly a weak frontal zone lying east-west across the middle of the UK at 00 Sun (144hrs). Therefore IF correct we are now looking at this time next week before any sort of warm up even begins, so whilst things remain at that kind of range it's wise not to get over excited imo.
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7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
GFS is a bit more progressive today, gradually sweeping the heat away by Tuesday for many, and Wednesday in the far south. That said, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday look especially warm, with 30c possible.
I'm still concerned about the ECM - GFS has definitely drifted towards in it in the longer term, having completely dropped it's HP dominated outlook and now it looking increasingly likely that much cooler air will push a long way south on Saturday according to the 00 ECM. Not good imo.
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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:
Hmmm ... UKMO/ECM very similar this morning at T144, which usually makes me lean towards them. High Pressure in control at that time but not as powerfully as on GFS. If UKMO/ECM are right, a decent weekend and warming up nicely - but risk of becoming less settled again into the following week (D9/D10). GFS on the other hand stays settled almost throughout, yet again
Indeed......what have we got to do to get decent agreement post 144hrs from the big two? So often recently when ECM has gone for fine, warm summery conditions longer term and GFS hasn't we ended up seeing GFS proven right, but now the shoe is very much on the other foot I fear the reverse will happen. As has been said before in here, if things can go wrong for the UK they generally will.
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Well rather mixed emotions this morning, but without question the big positive is a less cold and significantly drier outlook, especially for the west where it was so wet earlier this week. On the negative side the weekend looks rather less promising now, with a good deal of cloud likely across many areas on both Saturday and Sunday, a fear I alluded too earlier this week. Still on balance I'd take this mornings offerings, at least it will be pleasantly warm this weekend for the majority of us.
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10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Looks pretty bad really - though not quite as bad as the June gloom we got here - one day was around 11c all day with incessant rain.
Northerlies can be quite pleasant at times - lower humidity, sharp blue skies. Unfortunately in midsummer with all the solar input it's inevitably going to brew some beefy showers up. It'll certainly feel like autumn in the mornings under clear skies!Especially for any early risers who could be scraping their windscreens....
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1 minute ago, B87 said:
I think the record coldest max for August here is around 14 or 15c, so that could be under threat?
Well it all has to verify yet, but a cold, clear night followed by a cloudy, showery day could conceivably see temps pegged back in that sort of range imo...certainly not out of the question if all the pieces fall into place, which you kind of know they will at this time of year!
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8 minutes ago, B87 said:
Looks to be around 6-7c below average for here, so looking at 17-18c max!
Yes, but under a heavy shower, especially a prolonged one I think the temps could easily get dragged down by 4 or 5 degrees. That said, there would still be some parts like the south coasts of England and Wales that wouldn't fair to badly out of this setup, especially the further west you go and here it could still feel pleasant in any lengthy spells of sunshine, but these really aren't the kind of synoptics most of want to see as we start to close out this very indifferent summer!
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12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
Cracker of a potent cold shot (for August) in terms of how potent it could be..
It is indeed impressive, but so would my favourite team being beaten 10-0 by a massive underdog....i.e it really isn't something I want to see. Those charts do little to dispel my notion that the UK is very much the home of right snyoptics, wrong season and they could end up giving real meaning to your Summer Blizzard handle on here....
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10 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
Impressive. Summer to go out on a whimper?
No chance whatsoever of verifying on 12th if today were the 3rd Jan, but you just get the feeling that as it's the 3rd of Aug verification is pretty much nailed....
Let's just hope Sept delivers something summery, even if the days are significantly shorter we can still enjoy some heat, especially during the first half of the month.
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After what should be a pleasant weekend for much of the south and another very indifferent one for much of the north, it does now look increasingly likely that much colder air will move down across all areas next week behind a series of frontal troughs. These troughs are going to bring showers and even some longer spells of rain to all areas, but at this stage those closest to the N Sea appear in line for some of the most unpleasant conditions, with a day on the beach in Cromer not looking like a very appetising option later next week! Whether we see a typically winter evolution develop in the coming days, whereby the colder weather and the deepest troughing gets modelled farther and farther east remains to be seen, but looking at FI there's certainly the potential for things to get even worse as we move into mid month - with the final frames looking like something out of a meteorological summer snuff movie! Probably wise to make use of any warmth we see Sat-Mon, because it looks like being the one thing in very short supply across the following 7-10 days at least!
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1 hour ago, March said:
Yeah I'm pretty sure British weather is defined by the summit of Ben Nevis....
I think you know the point I was making. Frankly I'm not convinced about the so called cracking weekend ahead either. Looks to me as if there will be a lot of cloud around on Sat in what will be a fairly moist SW flow behind the WF, especially for northern and western areas, then on Sunday the CF moving south (albeit as a weakening feature) will also bring a fair amount of cloud. More runs needed as ever, but to my rather simplistic way of viewing things it's only going to be southeastern England that enjoys what most of us consider to be a fine, summery weekend. That said, compared to the last 24hrs and the next 24 to come I'll accept it with open arms.
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Well once again the ECM goes from hero to zero within 24hrs, thankfully I'm not sure too many of us got taken in by yesterdays 00 run, which always looked fanciful in the extreme. All in all a very disappointing but not entirely surprising set of runs this morning, with the back end of the ECM run suggesting temps low enough for some wet snow over the top of Ben Nevis.....oh the British summer!!!
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06 GFS sticking resolutely to it's guns and not buying the ECM version at all out to T+168hrs.
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27 minutes ago, MP-R said:
Yes, that was a rather daft comment by John Hammond given the number of model runs showing such, quite unlike him. After today and tomorrow, it's not actually looking too bad at all with a high probability of a warm settled weekend. FI starts quite early with regards to the pestering low pressure out in the Atlantic, that influencing where exactly the high pressure goes. All to play for - there's certainly been a strong trend for more sustained settled weather into week 2 of August for a wider swathe of the country for some time now.
Yes, the track of the weekend low is all important, but if we can keep it far enough NW then summer could make a very quick reappearance...however the potential is there for a real taste of Autumn if things go the other way. As you say all to play for, which must count for something I guess!
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26 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
I suspect it's a best-case scenario with the ECM operational output....nearer the time it'll probably end up somewhere between the GFS and ECM.
Nice to see the 15c isotherm (albeit temporarily) over the UK at a reasonable timeframe.As is often the case it must be said. I really would caution against anyone taking the overnight ECM as nailed on or even likely for that matter, I noticed John Hammond was at pains to mention the fact there was no sign of any decent settled summer weather on the horizon and GFS looks closer to what we will actually end up with imo, so for those across the N in particular the weekend and early part of next week could actually be pretty dire. As ever more runs needed, but let's just hope ECM is actually onto something for once and this just doesn't turn into another 24-48hr SE centric warm spell.
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Just now, mb018538 said:
Seems to be a few vigorous low pressure being spun up in the last few runs - the jet has woken up big time!
I don't buy those GFS ensemble members showing an anticyclone over the UK....it's just akin to 2 or 3 in winter showing the -5/-10 isotherm over the UK, and come the time it's nowhere to be seen. I think generally unsettled with 1 or 2 days of temps up to 25c in the SE is about the best we can hope for.Not sure you will be far wrong with this assessment and the winter cold chasing analogy is a good one. Obviously we should all see a few decent days across the next 10-14 and there's no question that things could be (and may get) a whole lot worse, but looking at the overall pattern going forward and then adding in the MO's latest 16-30 day output there's still nothing to suggest the kind of August most of us crave.
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24 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Unfortunately I have to agree - height rises for D8 onwards are now tending to occur either in the wrong place or in the same places we've already seen this summer. Few optimum ensembles this morning for a UK High. Still time for a shift back though.
Ditto.....I've spent the last 20 mins searching the overnight outputs for some, even one straw to clutch, but unless I'm missing something they/it eluded me. Really can't go hanging my coat on a few optimistic ensemble members against the kind of background pattern still being touted right across the model suite...polishing a turd is not going to stop it being a turd!
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You have to admit though any change is a long way off on the charts you posted, in fact it's the 6th of Aug before we see heights rise to any great degree, even across the S. Given that is a week Saturday a huge amount of caution should be applied to eventual evolution, indeed were the next 10 days looking warm and settled but a change to cooler, unsettled conditions was flagged for the 6th of Aug then......well we all know how that potential change would be viewed at that range. Same rules need to apply imo.
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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Rather too late for that already...
06 breakdown timing is more progressive still, meaning even across the E/SE of England we are looking at 48hrs of heat tops, whilst in the west 0-24hrs pretty much covers it. Should this trend continue (not saying it will) there is a danger the vast majority of us will miss out altogether, with upper teens and low 20's rather than upper 20's and low 30's.