coldcomfort

Rather too late for that already... 06 breakdown timing is more progressive still, meaning even across the E/SE of England we are looking at 48hrs of heat tops, whilst in the west 0-24hrs pretty much covers it. Should this trend continue (not saying it will) there is a danger the vast majority of us will miss out altogether, with upper teens and low 20's rather than upper 20's and low 30's.

Probably best to keep any sort of personal comments completely out of the equation, as they don't always come across as intended.

Which is precisely what I did, so I'm baffled as to why you felt the need to have a dig about my name. Believe me as the owner of a business that is very dependent of fine weather I just as disappointed as you and many others over what appears to be a downgrade, but I'm not going to let emotion get in the way of what I see in front of my own eyes and as I said before this is far from done and dusted....in fact we are still 5 or 6 days from it even starting for many.

Absolutely not....I think this because it's no different to what I've been thinking all along with regards to this spell. Said as much yesterday regarding both the indifferent weekend and the potentially longevity of the spell, the overnight runs have not changed my mind, but they have injected a well needed dose of realism to the debate imo. Yes there is plenty of scope for upgrades, in fact the familiar pattern I spoke about often sees original eye candy being downgraded (both summer and winter), only for slight upgrades to then follow across the next couple of days as the models struggle to nail the detail. What I described above is what the charts are showing this morning, a claim that you make frequently to defend your obvious optimistic way of viewing things, but that's not to say things won't change again...in fact I guarantee they will.

Indeed.....the overnight runs have certainly delivered something of a reality check this morning and we really do need to put the upcoming spell into some sort of reasoned context imo. To my mind the weekend looks distinctly average for the majority of the UK, though depending on where the trough ends up the far south could be warm, locally very warm. Even Monday whilst fine and dry for most is not overly warm across the northern half of the UK, pleasant probably best describes things for me, but clearly the southern half will become warm/very warm, locally hot. Tuesday now appears to be the peak of the heat for England, but a good deal more cloud than originally expected looks like pegging temps back on the warm/very warm locally hot category here, whilst further north and west frontal activity will keep it a good deal cooler with rain likely at times, especially later. Wednesday still looks very warm/locally hot across eastern and southeastern England, but elsewhere it quickly becomes much cooler and fresher. So as things currently stand a nationwide heatwave does not look the form horse by any stretch of the imagination, in fact away from England and Wales a brief warm up is probably the best that folk can hope for. One or two members may have ruffled a few feathers lately with their forthright appraisal of upcoming spell, but the fact is the latest outputs back their thought pattern far more that that of those getting carried away over 22c 850's a week hence. We have been here so, so many times in both summer and winter, I'm really baffled why the same mistakes keep getting made over eye candy charts so far into the future, when we all know even nailing down the coming 48hrs is rarely easy.

Agreed, I think the odds of a complete miss are probably the same as a week long heatwave, i.e very low. That said there will be some places that avoid any heat, especially across the far northwest and even the most favoured spots in the E/SE of England are probably looking at 48-72hrs tops. Whether we can see some sort of reload thereafter remains to be seen, but there is a real danger that a deep trough lying from Iceland to the UK will prevent the AZ and Scandi HP's from linking, trapping us into a cool, unsettled pattern for week 4 of Aug.

I think some sort of plume early next week looks fairly inevitable now, but we are again looking a 1 day event in Scotland/N Ireland and a 2-3 day event for the bulk of England and Wales. Thereafter at least according to GFS the longer term looks distinctly uninspiring, so given the choice between what the models now appear to be settling on or the less intense but much more protracted fine spells flagged late last week, I defiantly chose the latter. Yes it will be nice to see another blast of heat, but that is currently all it looks to be and it's longevity as even will be entirely dependent on your location.

Eventually yes, but the weekend does not look particularly warm and there is clearly a weak frontal zone lying east-west across the middle of the UK at 00 Sun (144hrs). Therefore IF correct we are now looking at this time next week before any sort of warm up even begins, so whilst things remain at that kind of range it's wise not to get over excited imo.

I'm still concerned about the ECM - GFS has definitely drifted towards in it in the longer term, having completely dropped it's HP dominated outlook and now it looking increasingly likely that much cooler air will push a long way south on Saturday according to the 00 ECM. Not good imo.

Indeed......what have we got to do to get decent agreement post 144hrs from the big two? So often recently when ECM has gone for fine, warm summery conditions longer term and GFS hasn't we ended up seeing GFS proven right, but now the shoe is very much on the other foot I fear the reverse will happen. As has been said before in here, if things can go wrong for the UK they generally will.

Well rather mixed emotions this morning, but without question the big positive is a less cold and significantly drier outlook, especially for the west where it was so wet earlier this week. On the negative side the weekend looks rather less promising now, with a good deal of cloud likely across many areas on both Saturday and Sunday, a fear I alluded too earlier this week. Still on balance I'd take this mornings offerings, at least it will be pleasantly warm this weekend for the majority of us.

Especially for any early risers who could be scraping their windscreens....

Well it all has to verify yet, but a cold, clear night followed by a cloudy, showery day could conceivably see temps pegged back in that sort of range imo...certainly not out of the question if all the pieces fall into place, which you kind of know they will at this time of year!

Yes, but under a heavy shower, especially a prolonged one I think the temps could easily get dragged down by 4 or 5 degrees. That said, there would still be some parts like the south coasts of England and Wales that wouldn't fair to badly out of this setup, especially the further west you go and here it could still feel pleasant in any lengthy spells of sunshine, but these really aren't the kind of synoptics most of want to see as we start to close out this very indifferent summer!

It is indeed impressive, but so would my favourite team being beaten 10-0 by a massive underdog....i.e it really isn't something I want to see. Those charts do little to dispel my notion that the UK is very much the home of right snyoptics, wrong season and they could end up giving real meaning to your Summer Blizzard handle on here....

No chance whatsoever of verifying on 12th if today were the 3rd Jan, but you just get the feeling that as it's the 3rd of Aug verification is pretty much nailed.... Let's just hope Sept delivers something summery, even if the days are significantly shorter we can still enjoy some heat, especially during the first half of the month.

After what should be a pleasant weekend for much of the south and another very indifferent one for much of the north, it does now look increasingly likely that much colder air will move down across all areas next week behind a series of frontal troughs. These troughs are going to bring showers and even some longer spells of rain to all areas, but at this stage those closest to the N Sea appear in line for some of the most unpleasant conditions, with a day on the beach in Cromer not looking like a very appetising option later next week! Whether we see a typically winter evolution develop in the coming days, whereby the colder weather and the deepest troughing gets modelled farther and farther east remains to be seen, but looking at FI there's certainly the potential for things to get even worse as we move into mid month - with the final frames looking like something out of a meteorological summer snuff movie! Probably wise to make use of any warmth we see Sat-Mon, because it looks like being the one thing in very short supply across the following 7-10 days at least!

I think you know the point I was making. Frankly I'm not convinced about the so called cracking weekend ahead either. Looks to me as if there will be a lot of cloud around on Sat in what will be a fairly moist SW flow behind the WF, especially for northern and western areas, then on Sunday the CF moving south (albeit as a weakening feature) will also bring a fair amount of cloud. More runs needed as ever, but to my rather simplistic way of viewing things it's only going to be southeastern England that enjoys what most of us consider to be a fine, summery weekend. That said, compared to the last 24hrs and the next 24 to come I'll accept it with open arms.

Well once again the ECM goes from hero to zero within 24hrs, thankfully I'm not sure too many of us got taken in by yesterdays 00 run, which always looked fanciful in the extreme. All in all a very disappointing but not entirely surprising set of runs this morning, with the back end of the ECM run suggesting temps low enough for some wet snow over the top of Ben Nevis.....oh the British summer!!!

06 GFS sticking resolutely to it's guns and not buying the ECM version at all out to T+168hrs.

Yes, the track of the weekend low is all important, but if we can keep it far enough NW then summer could make a very quick reappearance...however the potential is there for a real taste of Autumn if things go the other way. As you say all to play for, which must count for something I guess!

As is often the case it must be said. I really would caution against anyone taking the overnight ECM as nailed on or even likely for that matter, I noticed John Hammond was at pains to mention the fact there was no sign of any decent settled summer weather on the horizon and GFS looks closer to what we will actually end up with imo, so for those across the N in particular the weekend and early part of next week could actually be pretty dire. As ever more runs needed, but let's just hope ECM is actually onto something for once and this just doesn't turn into another 24-48hr SE centric warm spell.

Not sure you will be far wrong with this assessment and the winter cold chasing analogy is a good one. Obviously we should all see a few decent days across the next 10-14 and there's no question that things could be (and may get) a whole lot worse, but looking at the overall pattern going forward and then adding in the MO's latest 16-30 day output there's still nothing to suggest the kind of August most of us crave.

Ditto.....I've spent the last 20 mins searching the overnight outputs for some, even one straw to clutch, but unless I'm missing something they/it eluded me. Really can't go hanging my coat on a few optimistic ensemble members against the kind of background pattern still being touted right across the model suite...polishing a turd is not going to stop it being a turd!

You have to admit though any change is a long way off on the charts you posted, in fact it's the 6th of Aug before we see heights rise to any great degree, even across the S. Given that is a week Saturday a huge amount of caution should be applied to eventual evolution, indeed were the next 10 days looking warm and settled but a change to cooler, unsettled conditions was flagged for the 6th of Aug then......well we all know how that potential change would be viewed at that range. Same rules need to apply imo.