Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

coldcomfort

Members
  • Posts

    1,525
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    10

Everything posted by coldcomfort

  1. The not wholly unsurprising ECM climbdown now looks complete, with GFS also now suggesting rather less settled weather next week for most...which again is not wholly unsurprising either. Still plenty of decent weather on offer for most though, with expectations that the E/SE will fair best of all for warmth at least starting to develop a more summery feel to things.
  2. Looks to me as if ECM again wants to build pressure too far north across the weekend and into next week, it really has performed badly beyond the 5 day range this winter. Not for the first time GFS appears far more 'on the money', with tramline, brisk southwesterlies feeding lots of cloud and occasional rain/drizzle into most parts of the country. Those in the east and particularly southeast of England should fair OK however.
  3. I concur, but irrespective of what the longer range models are showing I think we all know how Spring will turn out...i.e cold and blocked this side of the pond, with an early taste of summer for the eastern half of the States....
  4. Me too. I'd like to post in the model diss, but frankly I'm scared to in winter. I might raise my head above the parapet this summer thought, assuming what you say about it being 'much more civilised' is correct. As for the models it looks as if ECM has led one or two up the garden path again with another phantom Easterly, overall it has performed very poorly in my eyes this winter.
  5. ECM not quite so keen to keep everything farther north though Mushy, with only the extreme south avoiding some proper rain at times if it were to verify. Irrespective of that however it does look like becoming mild, even very mild from midweek and if FI is to be believed that's pretty much how it will stay through until the end of official winter. Where we go thereafter is now the big question for me, but I wouldn't want to bet against northern blocking delivering a cold spring....you just know how things work in this part of the world!
  6. Thats not very nice from a fellow cornishman, I thought you all stuck together...
  7. My take on what's been a short period of model watching on here is there's a very good reason the MO still only really look 4 or 5 days ahead, because beyond that period there is so much that can and often does go wrong it's really not worth getting overly excited about...despite the obvious temptation to do so. Not even going to think about singling out any individual for criticism, but I think it's fair to single one or two out for praise and those are Ian F and Gibby, who for my money have consistently delivered excellent, unbaised analysis throughout.
  8. What about the classic 'faux cold'? Oft used when it looks like many or all of the above will again fail to materialise
  9. I'm still hoping to see high pressure return after what still looks like an unsettled blip according to GFS, but other models seem to be moving away from that plan now, especially the ECM. I too must confess to being a bit confused over why posting a chart at 384 seems fine when it shows cold, but only last week we were told to ignore charts beyond 120 that showed an end to the then cold spell. I do get the fact that some periods are easier to model than others, but as a casual observer it looks as though the easy to models periods on here are cold ones and the hard to model periods are mild ones - the reality however seems to be the complete opposite. Or am I reading it wrong?
  10. Well in the absence of any guaranteed cold, I'm relatively happy with the model output atm. Much prefer dry, quiet conditions over wet and windy, so the promise of rising pressure after a brief unsettled blip is better than nothing imo. As for the remainder of 'official winter', I think Phil summed things up pretty well earlier, with any proper block induced cold looking very unlikely before 23:59hrs on Feb 28th.
  11. just when we thought high pressure was set to dominate, the models bring low pressure back into the equation later this week and across the weekend. Whether we then see a return to quieter, more settled conditions into next week now looks rather more open to question, but imo a return to raging Atlantic remain the most least likely option atm.
  12. Looking at the NWP it does now look increasingly likely that we'll close out official winter 14/15 with a meaow rather than a roar, so my thoughts are now turning to spring. Cold weather in March or April just doesn't cut it for me, even if accompanied by sleet/snow, it just feels wrong to be light at 8pm and wearing a winter coat. Still at the end of the days there's nothing we can do about it, the weather will do what the weather will do...and at least a repeat of winter 13/14 was largely avoided. Many will be rightly thankful for that.
  13. The HP does look set to be remarkably persistent, let's just hope we're not going to use up our summer quota of fine, dry weather before summer starts! On that note, does anyone know what kind of spring/summers have historically followed very dry Feb's? - if this one is to be very dry that is.
  14. 'Not ideal but could be a lot worse is the way I'd describe the foreseeable future. Would much prefer dry/quiet over wet/windy and with high pressure in control there is always the hope that it might set up more favourably for cold at relatively short notice - which is not something you can usually say when locked in a mobile SW'erly dominated pattern. As for winter 14/15 overall to date, 'not ideal but could have been a lot worse' pretty much covers that too.
×
×
  • Create New...