coldcomfort

Another marked variation in the GFS/ECM outputs post T+120hrs, which then become ridiculously different post T+168hrs. Once again I suspect the reality come this time next week will lies somewhere in the middle, but I'm hoping ECM is wrong for obvious reasons!

Can't remember the last time I saw such a large variation across such a short period, in fact the closer the event gets the greater this disparity becomes across the models. GFS now pretty much kills any rain completely away from the far SE, whilst the Euro4 moves it up to N England and as you suggest gives some places an absolute pasting!

Any Saturday heat even in the SE now looks to be on very shaky ground indeed, in fact average to slightly above looks the call there, with the vast majority of the UK looking cool, even very cool under the rain. Thereafter with LP sat between Scotland and Iceland the final week of the month looks distinctly uninspiring, at least according to GFS, so we now look towards the upcoming hurricane/tropical storm season to shake things up and hopefully offer all of us some decent spells during the first half of Sept.

Indeed, I never suggested terrible, what I said was very average.... which in late August is generally pretty decent or at least usable. Come 7.20 this evening the ECM will have shunted much of Saturdays heat further towards the east imo, but even if as GFS suggests 850's are in the range 15-19c across the SE, more in the way of cloud and even some thundery rain will supress maxima by several degrees imo. Elsewhere 16-23c looks a fair shout, with 16-22c not far off he mark for many on Sun. How that isn't 'very average' is a mystery to me!

And what odds do you place on that chart being similar at 7.20pm this evening Knocker.....I will say 20-30% and I suspect even that will be optimistic.

Maybe if you read my post correctly you would understand the point I'm making...that said I'm happy to clarify it for you once again. I said 'outside the far SE (for clarity based on the UK this means roughly southeast of a line from the Wash to the IOW, not just Kent and Essex) the very average weather will continue across the weekend, much as it will across the remainder of this week after today. Perhaps using the charts above posted by yourself, you could show me why/how I'm so far off the mark with this claim, because to me the odds favour distinctly average conditions for 70-80% of the country between tomorrow and Sunday.

Couldn't disagree more MWAB....pretty much zero chance of verifying as shown, indeed outside the far SE the very average weather will continue across the weekend, much as it will across the remainder of this week after today. There really is unworthy amount of hype surrounding the weather atm, with the vast majority of us well outside the heat zone - take Camborne for instance where 20c looks a push on any day after today..... and Camborne as Knocker will attest is a long way south of Manchester. Things have to be kept in context here imo.

No everyone lives in London though MWAB, for many the reality of the next 3 or 4 days is very different...chalk and cheese in fact.

Still plenty to be resolved re detail across the working week......however what it ultimately boils down to is plenty of warm/very warm weather for most of England, but the far west of the country, along with much of Scotland, Wales and N Ireland look set to miss out on any heat (and in some cases even any warmth) once again. As for the BH weekend, still far too early to call with any confidence, but if there is to be any dry, warm and settled weather on offer it's looking increasingly likely that only the SE of England will see it, with 80-90% of the UK having to endure further distinctly average weather.....as per the summer in general.

Absolutely no point whatsoever in looking that far ahead atm, especially with GFS, which time and time again recently has been proven reliable for only one thing post T+120hrs, i.e building hopes of heat/plumes, only to dash them 3-5 runs later.

Indeed, it didn't take long did it, with the 00 run franking the 18 and demonstrating another all too predictable climb down from GFS.

ECM and UKMO again pretty much on the same page in the 120-144hr range, leaving GFS once more ploughing something of a lone furrow, so expect it to fall in line sometime across the next 2-4 runs. It's looking very much like a repeat performance of what we saw with the plume that never was early this week, but it's a bit of a mystery why GFS seems to be struggling so much at this range compared to the other big two. On a positive note many central and eastern parts of England should again see a couple of days in the mid, locally high 20's next week, but for the vast majority of the UK it's shaping up to be another 'close but not close enough' event imo.

Better than many recent August yes, but next weeks warm up looks like being another fairly brief affair according to UKMO/ECM, and one which is again largely confined to England, particularly central and eastern areas. GFS looks a very optimistic interpretation of things in holding off the breakdown until next weekend, so whilst it might well pan out correct I expect it will drift more towards ECM once again across the next 24-48hrs. Probably wise not to forget just how bullish it was about the last plume and it's 22-23c 850's...

Still no real point in attempting to put lipstick on a pig, the 12 GFS is another out and out stinker bar a rogue and very unlikely plume, so IF it verifies we can pretty much write off the final fortnight of meteorological summer...or am I simply guilty of putting another unduly negative slant on things?

Risky admission...Anyway to each their own - fine, dry and warm means I make money, unsettled with rain or showers means I lose money....so it's a no brainer for me!

No real point in attempting to put lipstick on a pig, the 06 GFS is an absolute out and out stinker, effectively writing off the final fortnight of meteorological summer IF proven even close to being correct. August is currently looking a classic game of two halves, the 1st being considerably better than the 2nd!!

Well all I can say this morning is make the most of the coming 2 or 3 days. Thereafter and despite the GFS op we appear to be staring down the barrel of a really disappointing spell of late summer weather, indeed that description is probably being very charitable as things currently stand, with charts that wouldn't look out of place in late Autumn

06 already looking less plumey still at 120hrs, with the breakdown from the west also looking a tad more progressive. At this rate even the E/SE of England will be seeing a blink and you'll miss it event.... Looking at Tues cloud and potential showers I think even a 30c somewhere is starting to look a bit of a stretch, all in all very disappointing imo.

Whilst the forecast for the weekend is heading in the direction I've been suggesting for a few days, I'm not sure I'd describe both days as universally cool Knocker, especially across the southern third of the country. Here average to rather warm look a more accurate assessment to me based on the latest outputs, average to rather cool would then cover the middle third, with genuinely cool conditions only prevalent across much of Scotland and N Ireland. Where we are this morning however is a long, long way from for very warm hor d'ouevre weekend that was set to precede a significant Spanish plume for early to mid week, indeed everything now looks very disappointing from a heat perspective, pretty much as one or two suggested as long as 3 or 4 days ago. Hopefully IF this all pans out close to current projections another lesson about chasing eye candy charts a week hence will be learnt, but some how I doubt it!

Firstly I don't think there's any need to get personal and question my eyesight. Secondly you missed the point I was making. I was not questioning what the NNM model was saying, indeed I pointed out that GFS was going for even warmer temps across a very small area of the south, my point was focusing on these higher values no more paints a representative picture of the UK as a whole this weekend than mentioning the temps in Shetland. The comment was not aimed at you directly, it was just a general observation of how things can become skewed if we don't look at our whole island.

GFS goes for 25-26c in the extreme south on Sat and 27-28c on Sun, but only across a very small area, so quoting those kinds of values is just as misleading as quoting the 11-12c expected in Shetland. On balance temps this weekend look set to be pretty close to average for the southern half of the UK and a little below average across the northern half...with the near standard local anomalies.

Indeed, I think we all have to be mindful when posting that this might be a relatively small island but it is often very meteorologically diverse, with much of the northern half of the country only seeing temps somewhere between 13-18c during the rest of this week and right across the weekend.

Not being pessimistic at all given the charts in front of me. Low 20's is pretty much ave for Manchester in mid Aug, but upper teens perhaps 20c looks about the mark on Sat, maybe a degree higher on Sun...ergo average. Clearly a warm up early next week, which I think I covered fairly well, we just need to see if ECM is onto anything regarding the trough disruption the SW (a genuine possibility imo), so as ever more runs needed.

Well what was originally a warm/very warm weekend for may now looks set to be another rather indifferent affair, as does Monday, with temps close to normal for many across England/Wales and pretty cool for Scotland/N Ireland. Tues/Weds see temps lifting into the very warm, locally hot categories for inland parts of England and Wales, but any warm up across Scotland and N Ireland still looks fairly muted, especially north of the central lowlands. Yes nice to see, but to my eyes we are still only looking at a localised heatwave Tues/Weds across much of England and Wales, with those north of the border and across the water in NI possibly being able to go down to only 1 jumper for 24hrs early next week....

It's a model discussion thread is it not? Therefore if people wish to talk about a breakdown which is supported by charts from said models, does it really matter what the current weather setup is?