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coldcomfort

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Posts posted by coldcomfort


  1. 1 hour ago, knocker said:

    Pretty much every report pre the vote and pretty much every one since has been riddled with the words could, would, should, might, may etc, etc, but now we see the introduction of new and equally superfluous wording 'it is conceivable'.

    The problem as I see it both on here and in the wider world is there are far more Remainers desperate for things to go titz up so they can say 'I told you so", rather that hoping they were wrong and things actually pan out for the better. It's all rather unedifying to be honest and says a great deal about the kind of people who think this way....none of it being particularly good imho.


  2. 2 hours ago, interested & confused said:

    You forget about the increasing strain on maternity units

    "1 Between 2000 and 2010 births in England increased by over 114,000 – from 572,826 to 687,007. Immigration has been the key factor fuelling this increase: three quarters of the increase in births was to women born outside the UK. Overall, in 2010, over a quarter of all live births in England were to mothers born abroad. The proportion of such births has grown consistently every year in succession since 1990, doubling over the past decade – from approximately 92,000 in 2000 to almost 180,000 in 2010 – this is nearly 500 on average every day"

    http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/266

     

    Courtesy of the Evening Standard..... 

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/poles-are-now-largest-foreignborn-contingent-in-britain-as-migration-grows-a3329321.html

    Poles are now largest foreign-born contingent in Britain as migration grows

    MARTIN BENTHAM 

    Thursday 25 August 2016

    Net migration has continued at near record levels.

     


  3. 6 minutes ago, mike Meehan said:

    I understand that Paul, though at this stage I prefer EU picture to Brexit picture - you may have gathered I have not got to the stage yet of giving up on this :D

     

    Well I think I've found a solution to your problem Mike. Reverese your C/W ratio, or even improve in to 11 months C and 1 month W. Simples really:D 


  4. 25 minutes ago, mike Meehan said:

    Paul, in the first place us remainers did not ask for this situation in the first place - it was thrust upon us by a mixture of David Cameron's desire to keep his right wingers under control and to try and take some of the wind out of the sails of UKIP, I doubt many have illusions about that.

    In the second place I suspect that the majority of people both on this forum and out there generally are not business owners, politicians or involved in the media to the extent where our opinions would be taken notice of to the extent it would be detrimental to business generally, so the question of whether we are upbeat or downbeat as individuals does not really apply.

    As it is we remainers are not just looking at the short term or medium term effects as I believe the leavers are but in general looking at the much longer term effects several generations into the future by which time we will all have popped our clogs but hopefully happy in leaving something sustainable to carry on.

    In both scenarios there will be inevitable changes in culture because this evolves with time and circumstances.  

    The third factor is that there are two sides of the fence regarding this matter - the leavers believe that there will be more business opportunities outside the EU though none are specified per se and whether they come to fruition in sufficient numbers to warrant such a leaving is completely unknowable at this stage and will remain so until they actually do come into force.

    On the other hand the remainers already know what we were getting and would have continued get had we stayed in, or likely to get should we opt to remain because it will be the same as before.

    The question of business, economic, cultural and political values are all inter-linked and each has a bearing on the other.

    In such an subject as this where the final consequences have the potential to become far reaching it is important to keep an overall picture of what is happening - to separate it out into various fragments will detract from this with the potential of making this overall picture inaccurate.

    So when deciding our future the complete package has to be considered which includes peoples' rights to stay and movement - it can't really be considered piecemeal.    

    Yes indeed, what we were guaranteed to continue getting was uncontrolled immigration from the EU, which would have kept the net migration in the 100's of thousands rather than reduced to the 10's of thousands pledged by this government. What we knew we would get as a result is continued pressure on already massively stretched public services, further increasing pressure on GP services already stretched to the absolute limit and yet greater downward pressure on wages. 52% of the country recognised these and other problems associated with being in the EU and decided they did not like what they saw, 48% either decided better the devil you know or like you concluded the potential risks involved outweighed the potential gains. 

    The point is no one really knows how this is all going to pan out, but Paul is absolutely right in saying all the doom and gloom (whether business or personal) can and will have a detrimental effect on things overall, creating a feel bad factor rather than a feel good one. Once on that slippery slope it will be very difficult to get off it, so imo it's time for you to recognise and accept we are where we are and pulling in the same direction is the only real option open to all of us. As Paul also alluded too no one in their right mind expects all our problems to be solved the minute we leave the EU, but equally no one on their right mind believes that in this day and age the whole economic and social structure of the UK is going to implode catastrophically either - the reality lies somewhere in the middle and both sides should have equal input into where our sticks are ultimately placed, but meaningful input as opposed to constant looking back in anger. 

     


  5. 1 minute ago, scottish skier said:

    Erm, right now you need to show a passport to leave France and that's with the border at Calais. However, that only applies for people travelling by official commercial routes.

    I'm talking, obviously, about illegal immigrants. You know, the ones in the Jungle.

    No country has legal obligations (under what law if you think it is the case?) to stop people leaving it's borders.

    Tomorrow, the UK could pass legislation to allow anyone in and anyone out. Entirely up to it. At the moment, even as part of the EU, it can let in whoever it wants; they just don't get a visa that allows them to travel to the EU.

    Hell, it was only recently the UK started scanning passports on people departing by ferry. And that's not a control per see; just monitoring for security purposes.

    I don't know if the French ask for passports to board ferries out of France.

    Anyway, if some illegals get into a boat to cross the channel, the French have no legal obligation to stop them. After all, why bother, as soon as they enter British waters it's Britain's problem. Unless we have bilateral agreement / are part of the EU; then it's a problem both need to solve together.

    That was my point. 

    The french have been calling for the scrapping of the Le Touquet agreement for years, so in or out of the EU this was always going to be a hot potato and just highlights how ineffective everyone has been in dealing with the situation. Just as with post Brexit Britain, this channel situation is organic and things will change as new circumstances unfold. Even if it were to happen though, Le Touquet says there has to be a minimum of 2 years notice, so plenty of time for the french and the EU to sort this mess they alone created.


  6. 1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

    Let's play devils advocate and say the border is now in Kent and French authorities are no longer checking vehicles at Calais. 

    Dover then becomes the first point of contact with illegal immigrants. 

    How do you propose to deal with them? 

    IF the border is relocated to Kent, new rules will be in place and central to that will be the checking of vehicles and passports before leaving france.

    Anyone not picked up in france that makes it to the UK would then be returned, along with a fine for the country from which they were allowed to depart illegally.  

     


  7. 1 hour ago, scottish skier said:

    No it's not. 

    Airlines might ask to see your visa before you board, but only because they can get in trouble with the country of origin for landing you there without one. 

    Countries may place controls on who is coming in, but rarely on who is leaving. Well, not unless they're North Korea or something. I could get in a yacht tomorrow to sail to Morocco; I don't have to tell the British authorities I plan to do that.

    If a migrant sneaks into France then jumps in a boat heading out of French waters, the French are not obliged to stop them. They're doing so at the moment because we're all EU members and we have a bi-lateral agreement with them.

    Incorrect.....IF the border is relocated to Kent the whole game changes and anyone wishing to travel to the UK will need to show a passport before leaving France. Anyway the whole argument is superfluous because it won't be happening, Eurostar is half owned by the french government and the likely loss of revenue from such a controversial move will kill the idea stone dead.....but not before the Remain fearmongers have milked it to death no doubt!  


  8. 1 hour ago, mike Meehan said:

    The French will not be processing at least 7 to 8,000 plus applicants for travel to the UK, they will be looking at ways they can be dumping them over this side of the channel - they will see it as our problem not theirs and will only be too pleased to be shut of them - once here if our border police act as they are currently performing they will not contain them, they may briefly take details then tell them to report at a specific time and place only to find that they have all disappeared into the undergrowth.

    Any thoughts about moving them back over the other side can be disregarded - that won't happen - the disruption to normal cross channel traffic will be far too great.

    And you cannot imagine that all this could be done without any political eruptions either.

    And how are they going to do that...all you are doing is scaremongering yet again. Countries cannot just go dumping people on other countries, it just does not happen in the real world. Without passports those in the Jungle will not be allowed to travel legally to UK, even if they have sought asylum and been successful. As for the vast majority who simply refuse to even do that, well they've go no chance.  As for the illegals... well the numbers in which they are currently coming is so high any reduction will be seen as a victory.

    How can the situation in the Jungle be our problem and not theirs...what world are you in?  Yes the vast majority of them are not interested in living in France and simply see the UK as their holy grail, but if it were not for open borders in France (which we oppose) those people would not have been able to travel to the Calais area in the first place. So it is the fault of the EU and the french, simple as! 


  9. 21 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Nothing the French have every right to do that and the current Treaty arrangement was bound to come under strain once the UK voted to leave the EU. I was more criticizing Sarkozy because he's running around France now jumping on any bandwagon that he thinks might get him some votes . 

    Well if Sarky thinks moving the border to Kent will mean the Jungle also relocates with it he will be sadly mistaken. If the border returns to Kent we will find it much easier to spot illegal immigrants arriving on our shores. As far as the law is concerned it is incumbent on all nations to ensure those that leave their borders have the required paperwork to enter the country they travel to, otherwise they will be immediately returned and a fine issued to the country from which they departed.  So whilst the french may have the right, they will probably realise quite quickly that exercising it will work against them.


  10. 15 minutes ago, Paul said:

    I think, to be fair, it was pretty apparent that I wasn't suggesting that posts on this forum had anything to do with the workings or indeed confidence in the economy. 

    When it comes to money in wallets, of course that'll be an over-riding factor, and since the vote that's not really changed. So what we're talking about at this point in time is confidence and sentiment, which as has already been discussed is something of a self-fulfilling prophecy - low confidence can / does affect spending (business and personal) down the line, which in turn then has an impact on jobs, livelihoods and money in wallets etc.

    Time will tell how the dip in confidence around the vote lasts, and how much of an affect it has. But my point was that there's zilch to be gained by people (and by that I don't mean in here or other small discussions, I mean business, politics, media etc), just doing down the economy on the basis of being peeved about the outcome of the brexit vote, as at this point in time there's nothing tangible we can glean in terms of how things will play out.

    The truth is the whole post Brexit discussion has just an extension of the fear filled pre Brexit discussion, with all sorts of wild, unsubstantiated claims being made by those with very obvious agendas. Without question the one crystal clear fact in all of this is uncertainty does no one any favours and there has been an absolute boatload of that since Jun 24th, enough in fact to have caused a complete and utter economic meltdown, if you believed some on the pre vote hype. To this end I think we will start to see a very different approach from HM Govt in the coming days and weeks, strong leadership is required here, along with cool heads and some genuine self confidence that we can and will make this work. 

    I think those involved in negotiating our Brexit accept the task ahead will be difficult enough with everyone pulling in the same direction, but if we continue to pull in opposite directions that task becomes impossible and everyone loses.


  11. 3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The poisoned dwarf Sarkozy now calling for the UK border to be moved out of Calais and back to Kent.  He's also gone into full populist mode with his backing for a French wide ban on the burkini. I fear the French elections are going to be a race to see which politician can deliver the most meat to the baying mob.

    Hollande has no chance so it's going to be a case of the Republicains versus the Front Nationale, Marine Le Pen will likely get to the final round of voting but will get beaten by someone just slightly less horrid .

    I really think May should delay triggering article 50 until after the French and German elections otherwise the UKs negotiating position is going to be used as a political football. 

     

    What is wrong exactly with moving the UK border back to Kent?


  12. 15 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

    I agree, but that's what happens when you are 'in control'. When you are the 'opposition', you can attack all the time without responsibility. When you become the government, you are then on the defensive.

    So, before, the anti-EU side could just attack, blaming the EU etc, saying things would be much better if we leave. Well, now they have won so they must now defend while the pro-EU side get to attack.

    The rights and wrongs of this matter little; it's just what happens.

    And note I'm talking about the debate in general rather than specifically on here. 

    --

    As for wallowing in misery... Well, you can't tell people how to feel. Brexit is terrible for some to the point of genuine fear, tears, deep worry for the future. People face being stripped of an identity/citizenship they've had from birth for example. My family is a European family so I know this feeling. As mike says, there is much more to this than the economy. However, the economy is intimately linked to confidence and confidence to how happy / sad / worried people are.

    It is up to brexiters to give people confidence; it's on their shoulders now. They can't just demand people cheer up; they need to do things to actually cheer people up and give them confidence. Guaranteeing all Europeans in the UK permanent right to residency would be a start.

    It is not and never has been up to Brexiters as you call them to give people confidence and it is in no way on their shoulders. Both those things are now down to government and I suspect after Weds brainstorming meeting at No10 you will hear a very different and much more cohesive message being decimated. May has made it perfectly clear that the UK will be leaving the EU and I suspect those in cabinet who continue to whinge and whine about the validity of her mandate will very quickly find themselves as ex cabinet members. 

    I suspect Article 50 might well be triggered before the end of 2016 now, especially in light of the increased chatter from the Germans, because as far as the EU is concerned when they say jump the rest just ask how high.....thankfully that will no longer include us.


  13. 28 minutes ago, Paul said:

    I'm thinking you've either not read beyond the headline, or perhaps the rest of the article didn't match what you were trying to portray there SS, as the expert opinion in there was that it was nothing untoward, and that August had been pretty strong already, with the expectation that the upcoming week would be fairly strong due to many schools going back a bit later than previously. 

    Bank holiday sales have taken quite a hit.

      Quote

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37212179

    Bank holiday shopper footfall 'down 4%'

    The number of people out shopping in the UK on Saturday and Sunday fell by 4.1% compared with last year's August bank holiday, retail researchers say.

    Analysis firm Springboard had predicted a 6.5% increase in footfall at shopping centres, retail parks and high streets.

    Springboard's Diane Wehrle told the BBC it was "quite a surprise to see the magnitude of drop", and said it could not be explained solely by bad weather.

     

    I too think it's pretty obvious why SS posts this kind of stuff, but that aside I'm struggling with the logic anyway. Firstly the BH weekend weather has not been bad, in fact it's been pretty good, but more to the point I'd expect retail parks and more especially shopping centres to actually see increased sales during bad weather. I think the drop is probably down to decent weather getting most people out and about in the fresh air to enjoy the last BH of summer, but irrespective of the facts some will blame fears over Brexit (often without directly saying it however) regardless.  

     

     

     


  14. 1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

    MIA you seem to be suggesting that the UK could still remain in the EU. I just can't see that happening even if the EU made some big compromises on freedom of movement. 

    Unfortunately the UKs biggest export is services not manufacturing and devaluation just means higher inflation. The UK simply doesn't produce enough goods that the rest of the world wants. In terms of percentage of goods to the EU that might have gone down but in terms of value has gone up. 

    It shouldn't be an either or scenario, the UK cannot afford to burn it's bridges with the EU. The biggest problem for UK exports worldwide hasn't been the EU but successive governments with inept industrial policies, Germany has no problems exporting .

    Agreed, but why? Perhaps the reason lies in the example of a local flooring firm who set up with the intention of supplying stone tiling to the UK and European market. In the end they were simply forced to give in, based on the enormous costs involved in satisfying the red tape emanating out of Brussels, which was 90% greater than that that came from Westminster. You are clearly an intelligent guy Nick, so quite why you continue to deny the EU offers up just as many problems as solutions is a mystery to me.  Is Mike winning you over with his claims of European utopia? 


  15. 15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    If you say so?? Otherwise, why not give it a rest?

    Agh right - so when I made a perfectly valid point on Friday your response was to call me a troll, for no other reason than holding an opposing view to you, now I again make a perfectly valid point you tell me to give it a rest.....democracy in action eh? 

    For the record we were told this earlier by ciel and you 'liked' it.  

    Quote

    Well 48% of voters were capable of exercising reasoned judgement on the information available.  I would add that had their been genuine interest or concern as to the consequences of brexit, there was a mountain of material available apart from the official campaign nonsense or tabloid newspapers.

    Ergo the other 52% which included me and the family members you alluded too clearly were not capable of exercising reasoned judgement on the information available....so did you just like her post for the sake of it? Perish the thought eh? 


  16. 3 hours ago, mike Meehan said:

    You believe everything you read in the newspapers then?

    Dreams not crushed - I suspect that TM is playing a canny game, playing two sides at once - she is only just back from holiday and there is a lot to go into and consider and I expect it will be sometime before she makes any definitive decisions, plus some court cases are due to be heard this autumn which may put a different complexion on the situation, there is the question of whether or not Scotland and/or Northern Ireland will make moves to come out of the Union, in fact there is a whole lot of things which could happen between now and next Spring which could upset the cattle cart and nothing is laid in stone yet and the result of the referendum is only one part of the picture, there are many more things to take into consideration, most importantly, what would really be in the best interests of our country's future?

    If I were you I'd be inclined to wait patiently with the rest of us to see what happens, or are you getting just that little bit twitchy that things are not going as expected - did you really expect article 50 to be triggered by DC on 24.06.2016?

     

    No, unlike you, who choses to disbelieve everything that does not make the SNP out to be the best thing since sliced bread. 

    I'm perfectly comfortable with where we are right now, we are leaving the EU and irrespective of what Turgid might claim we will be taking you with us imo....which is probably why it's you who is getting twitchy.


  17. 2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

    And now would be the time to dispel the nonsense (a straw-man hypothesis put-forward by Brexiteers) that all those who support a Brexit are de facto racists...What a pile of cack: many in my own family voted 'leave', and they are not racists!

    They didn't, not one of them, proudly stand in front of a digitally remastered Nazi propaganda poster and grin like a Cheshire cat...That was, unless I'm mistaken, His Holiness St Nigel of Thanet??

    Like me they may not be racists, but also like me as Leave voters they are obviously intellectually inferior to you and were again like me simply incapable to seeing through the lies and misinformation....or does that kind of thing only apply to 'other' non family Leavers? 


  18. 12 minutes ago, davehsug said:

    So tell us what you want fgs! We can create anything and call it Brexit. It could look exactly like what we have now, except we have no say, or it could be total isolation, or something in between.

    Just stop moaning about us and tell us what you want. You won, we get it, now stop wasting energy rubbing our noses in it and gloating and bluddy well DO SOMETHING!

    I'm beginning to think you didn't want to leave as such, just to beat those you hold responsible for something, you're not sure quite what,  but "na na na na na we won!"

    Calm down dear! What do you want me to do, I'm not in a position to influence anything, but thankfully I did take the one and only chance to do so when offered on Jun 23rd....as did 17 million others. So I'm now more than happy to let the Brexit negotiators formulate a plan on my behalf, but the one thing I want to see at the centre of it is an end to free, unfettered movement of people from the EU, with some sort of points based system introduced to replace it. Beyond that I'm happy to consider all options, of which I'm sure there will be many.  


  19. 1 hour ago, ciel said:

    48% had the sense not to be sucked in by meaningless slogans,  gross misinformation and a rampant right wing press.

    Well obviously, considering the entire 48% were intellectually superior and still are.....didn't stop them losing tho did it....:yahoo: 


  20. 5 minutes ago, ciel said:

    Well 48% of voters were capable of exercising reasoned judgement on the information available.  I would add that had their been genuine interest or concern as to the consequences of brexit, there was a mountain of material available apart from the official campaign nonsense or tabloid newspapers.

    So are you suggesting that all 48% who voted Remain did so because they exercised reasoned judgement on the information available?


  21. 26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Intriguing piece of logic is that...So, if an innocent man gets hanged for a murder he didn't commit, we all blame whoever built the scaffold? Nice!

    Farage and Co, in a moment of self-obsessed carelessness perhaps, created their not-so-beautiful baby. So why should Farage & Co not stay around long enough to see it grow...Time for a sharp exit!

    Incorrect yet again....It was Cameron who created this in an attempt to unify his party, but since he has chosen to take the cowards way out it is now down to his predecessor to clear up the mess, which means honouring the majority vote of the electorate and leaving the EU. 

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