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coldcomfort

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coldcomfort last won the day on August 11 2016

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  1. Another marked variation in the GFS/ECM outputs post T+120hrs, which then become ridiculously different post T+168hrs. Once again I suspect the reality come this time next week will lies somewhere in the middle, but I'm hoping ECM is wrong for obvious reasons!
  2. Can't remember the last time I saw such a large variation across such a short period, in fact the closer the event gets the greater this disparity becomes across the models. GFS now pretty much kills any rain completely away from the far SE, whilst the Euro4 moves it up to N England and as you suggest gives some places an absolute pasting!
  3. Any Saturday heat even in the SE now looks to be on very shaky ground indeed, in fact average to slightly above looks the call there, with the vast majority of the UK looking cool, even very cool under the rain. Thereafter with LP sat between Scotland and Iceland the final week of the month looks distinctly uninspiring, at least according to GFS, so we now look towards the upcoming hurricane/tropical storm season to shake things up and hopefully offer all of us some decent spells during the first half of Sept.
  4. Indeed, I never suggested terrible, what I said was very average.... which in late August is generally pretty decent or at least usable. Come 7.20 this evening the ECM will have shunted much of Saturdays heat further towards the east imo, but even if as GFS suggests 850's are in the range 15-19c across the SE, more in the way of cloud and even some thundery rain will supress maxima by several degrees imo. Elsewhere 16-23c looks a fair shout, with 16-22c not far off he mark for many on Sun. How that isn't 'very average' is a mystery to me!
  5. And what odds do you place on that chart being similar at 7.20pm this evening Knocker.....I will say 20-30% and I suspect even that will be optimistic.
  6. Maybe if you read my post correctly you would understand the point I'm making...that said I'm happy to clarify it for you once again. I said 'outside the far SE (for clarity based on the UK this means roughly southeast of a line from the Wash to the IOW, not just Kent and Essex) the very average weather will continue across the weekend, much as it will across the remainder of this week after today. Perhaps using the charts above posted by yourself, you could show me why/how I'm so far off the mark with this claim, because to me the odds favour distinctly average conditions for 70-80% of the country between tomorrow and Sunday.
  7. Couldn't disagree more MWAB....pretty much zero chance of verifying as shown, indeed outside the far SE the very average weather will continue across the weekend, much as it will across the remainder of this week after today. There really is unworthy amount of hype surrounding the weather atm, with the vast majority of us well outside the heat zone - take Camborne for instance where 20c looks a push on any day after today..... and Camborne as Knocker will attest is a long way south of Manchester. Things have to be kept in context here imo.
  8. No everyone lives in London though MWAB, for many the reality of the next 3 or 4 days is very different...chalk and cheese in fact.
  9. Still plenty to be resolved re detail across the working week......however what it ultimately boils down to is plenty of warm/very warm weather for most of England, but the far west of the country, along with much of Scotland, Wales and N Ireland look set to miss out on any heat (and in some cases even any warmth) once again. As for the BH weekend, still far too early to call with any confidence, but if there is to be any dry, warm and settled weather on offer it's looking increasingly likely that only the SE of England will see it, with 80-90% of the UK having to endure further distinctly average weather.....as per the summer in general.
  10. Absolutely no point whatsoever in looking that far ahead atm, especially with GFS, which time and time again recently has been proven reliable for only one thing post T+120hrs, i.e building hopes of heat/plumes, only to dash them 3-5 runs later.
  11. Indeed, it didn't take long did it, with the 00 run franking the 18 and demonstrating another all too predictable climb down from GFS.
  12. ECM and UKMO again pretty much on the same page in the 120-144hr range, leaving GFS once more ploughing something of a lone furrow, so expect it to fall in line sometime across the next 2-4 runs. It's looking very much like a repeat performance of what we saw with the plume that never was early this week, but it's a bit of a mystery why GFS seems to be struggling so much at this range compared to the other big two. On a positive note many central and eastern parts of England should again see a couple of days in the mid, locally high 20's next week, but for the vast majority of the UK it's shaping up to be another 'close but not close enough' event imo.
  13. Better than many recent August yes, but next weeks warm up looks like being another fairly brief affair according to UKMO/ECM, and one which is again largely confined to England, particularly central and eastern areas. GFS looks a very optimistic interpretation of things in holding off the breakdown until next weekend, so whilst it might well pan out correct I expect it will drift more towards ECM once again across the next 24-48hrs. Probably wise not to forget just how bullish it was about the last plume and it's 22-23c 850's...
  14. Still no real point in attempting to put lipstick on a pig, the 12 GFS is another out and out stinker bar a rogue and very unlikely plume, so IF it verifies we can pretty much write off the final fortnight of meteorological summer...or am I simply guilty of putting another unduly negative slant on things?
  15. Yep, that'll teach you, luckily we are still in the EU or things could have been even worse....
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