GrrClark
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Posts posted by GrrClark
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1 hour ago, Benvironment said:
Ooo, can you ask them whereabouts that is? Looks a bit like Innerdouny Hill, but with spruce plantations in the Ochils you never can tell
Got a day off tomorrow so want to head to the where the best local snow is. While we do get snow here from these set ups we also seem to sit in a weird blank spot that only ever gets clipped, rather than dumped. We did okay in 2010 but it was Edinburgh and the Lothians that sat under the showers for days and got pummelled. Then in 2018 it was east Fife, Lochore Meadows, Cowdenbeath that got the lion's share but also right along the Tay got it too. I vivdly remember being up on East Lomond on 28th Feb, under blue skies, watching streamers pile along the Tay and the Forth...with us in the middle, wondering what all the fuss was about
Yep, I remember that in 2018 too. It was like sitting in the cleft of a forked stick and watching the inbound streamers split to go north and south of us with just a smattering left over as scant consolation.
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3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said: Chance for something pretty special
I'm on the southeast side of East Lomond and if that happens it is going to make for some spectacular weather watching.
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That was an incredible evening, exceptional in the extreme. 10 hours of electrical activity. There was a quieter period between 1:30am to 5:30am and then an epic re-awakening. Torrential rain out the front of the house, but relatively little wind, yet out the back of the house there was hail the size of garden peas and ferocious winds.
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Absolutely unrelenting, this is incredible. 2+ hours of non stop electrical activity.
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Certainly a lot more snow in Glenrothes today, we largely watched everything slip north or south of us yesterday.
Oddly enough the snow on the road in front of the house is staying around 4"-5" deep as the wind is continually scouring off the top.
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7 minutes ago, Benvironment said:
The icicles ones were, yep. It was a tad slippy down on the rocks. It will take another week of subzero temperatures before the waterfall even considers starting to freeze though. It did so in 2010, amazing to see.
Thanks. I regret not walking up to see it in 2010, if it stays cold enough this time I will definitely head up.
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Were those pics from up at Maspie Den?
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A nice wee shower coming through now with a flash of lightning and peel of thunder. Hopefully this is the start of something a bit more notable for Glenrothes now
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10 minutes ago, M1245 said:
Radar seems to show worst of the snow southern fife rather than central - Glenrothes nowt for the past couple of hours. Hope it changes tonight
So frustrating eh? Looking at the radar there does seem to be a lovely dark red blob that is better placed to give us a doing.
I even went out to clear the driveway and road to goad the snaw gods a wee bit and encourage them to whump us!
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Happy to hear so many snaw stories from others, but i'm still watching too much slide by just to the south of me. I thought being relatively high up on an east facing hill would have see me covered by now.
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1 minute ago, Blitzen said:
yOU CAN STREAMER OFF! Lochgelly is shining like a beacon there!
Yep, 10-15 miles further north and we would be mullered, but it seems we are destined to watch it slide south of us.
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I had hoped that the Tay/Forth basin would have been a bit like a funnel and we would have had a good dolloping flowing over the top of us, but it seems to be the opposite just now with a still slightly northern element to the wind.
All a little anticlimactic for now for snow at least. The cold is living up to the hype.
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3rd heavy shower within the last hour, starting to look much more purposeful.
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Had a good wee spell 30 mins or so ago that cleared to a lovely blue sky and now back into showers again.
In the clear spell and looking out ESE over the mouth of the estuary it was smashing to see the convective clouds starting to build and tower. Reassuring to actually see evidence of that happening that is not just on a laptop screen.
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Just started coming down with a bit more enthusiasm in Glenrothes after a wee bit of grauple overnight. Still fairly light for now, but good sized flakes and a feel of promise.
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6 minutes ago, cheese said:
If other users don't like what I post then they are free to ignore me. I won't be offended or upset.
Again that same sense of self entitlement eh? The real shame is that you are likely so arrogant that you wont even consider reflecting on why there have been a couple of comments like this towards you.
Last comment from me to you.
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13 minutes ago, cheese said:
If a mod thinks this discussion is inappropriate then I'll stop.
You really are dreadfully conceited. If you can't have snow then nobody can. You don't care about subjecting the other forum members to your petulance so long as you get to vent your spleen.
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2 hours ago, Day 10 said:
Have you had snow yet?
A scant covering is all.
Not sure how that is relative to my post of last night unless of course that is some sort of justification for people being petulant.
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In the grand scheme of things never has there been so much self indulgent woe betiding p**h and nonsense as n the recent model thread.
I do understand personal desire, but quite honestly it is pitiful how otherwise intelligent grown men become petulant and childish oafs when their desire is not reflected by a mathematical model
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8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
Sorry but that is not correct, one can see Cheshire Gap, Thames streamers etc in the right conditions. Forecasting thunderstorms on a national basis, ie larger scale model is also done routinely with UK Met. I am sure someone will come along and give a better insight into my comment.
6 minutes ago, FetchCB said:THE GFS model goes down to 28km in resolution which would be sufficient to pick the streamer and the Met Office have MoGreps and UKV the latter of which is down to 1.5km resolution. ( http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting).
Looking at the forecast GFS does seem to pick up a possible streamer although i suspect you will will have to wait until Wednesday onwards to hear specifics and greater accuracy from the Met as a result of MoGreps and UKV
My apologies if being misleading in my post.
I do appreciate that there are models within the forecasting suite that do have sufficient resolution to factor in local scale features, but my understanding was that the hemispheric modelling at day 5 is not run at a resolution that would consider that.
Always happy to be corrected.
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1 hour ago, weirpig said:
Just as a matter of interest do models take into consideration streamers etc? By that i mean do they forecast the chesire gap etc because looking at the above chart it seems that the snow chance could move alot more inland then is currently showing.
The NWP model output that you are considering certainly don't factor in small topographical features like the Cheshire Gap as the resolution of the model is not nearly fine enough to be able to do so.
As computing power continues to increase then the resolution of the models will be able to get to a point where they can consider topographical features and localised weather features such as the development of thunderstorms, but as yet that level of model run is not possible unless it is of a very narrow focus.
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What baffles me is the anthropomorphising of a what is a very complicated set of equations with a vast amount of data points. I genuinely wonder if many of the posters do understand what numerical weather prediction actually is.
Models "sniffing out something" or "latching onto an idea" are examples of this; it is really hard sums and nothing else. Equations don't "sniff something" out, they follow a set of prescribed mathematical rules with a series of variables and give an answer.
When experienced forecasters then give a very learned opinion on how those mathematical outputs can be interpreted, given a backdrop of other information and analysis, and if it differs from what someone else wants to see then it is seen as a personal attack.
As for the cliches!!! I thought footballers were the worst for hackneyed statements, but I think the model forum has them licked.
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Sadly still just a dusting here as the snow shield of the Lomond Hills is working horribly well.
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Had a good shower around 10:30 that gave everything a light covering, but all melted again.
The odd flurry in between times, but nothing lasting.
Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards
in Regional
Posted
In 2010 I had really good winter rubber on my BMW and led many a poor soul into trouble, all of those folk thinking if a beemer can manage that then we're bound to be ok