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GrrClark

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Posts posted by GrrClark

  1. That was an incredible evening, exceptional in the extreme.  10 hours of electrical activity.  There was a quieter period between 1:30am to 5:30am and then an epic re-awakening.  Torrential rain out the front of the house, but relatively little wind, yet out the back of the house there was hail the size of garden peas and ferocious winds.

    • Like 6
  2. 10 minutes ago, M1245 said:

    Radar seems to show worst of the snow southern fife rather than central - Glenrothes nowt for the past couple of hours. Hope it changes tonight 

    So frustrating eh?  Looking at the radar there does seem to be a lovely dark red blob that is better placed to give us a doing.

    I even went out to clear the driveway and road to goad the snaw gods a wee bit and encourage them to whump us!

    • Like 3
  3. 6 minutes ago, cheese said:

    If other users don't like what I post then they are free to ignore me. I won't be offended or upset.

    Again that same sense of self entitlement eh?  The real shame is that you are likely so arrogant that you wont even consider reflecting on why there have been a couple of comments like this towards you.

    Last comment from me to you.

    • Like 1
  4. In the grand scheme of things never has there been so much self indulgent woe betiding p**h and nonsense as n the recent model thread.

    I do understand personal desire, but quite honestly it is pitiful how otherwise intelligent grown men become petulant and childish oafs when their desire is not reflected by a mathematical model 

    • Like 7
  5. 8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Sorry but that is not correct, one can see Cheshire Gap, Thames streamers etc in the right conditions. Forecasting thunderstorms on a national basis, ie larger scale model is also done routinely with UK Met. I am sure someone will come along and give a better insight into my comment.

     

     

    6 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

    THE GFS model goes down to 28km in resolution which would be sufficient to pick the streamer and the Met Office have MoGreps and UKV the latter of which is down to 1.5km resolution. ( http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting).

     

    Looking at the forecast GFS does seem to pick up a possible streamer although i suspect you will will have to wait until Wednesday onwards to hear specifics and greater accuracy from the Met as a result of MoGreps and UKV

     

    My apologies if being misleading in my post.

    I do appreciate that there are models within the forecasting suite that do have sufficient resolution to factor in local scale features, but my understanding was that the hemispheric modelling at day 5 is not run at a resolution that would consider that.

    Always happy to be corrected.

    • Like 1
  6. 1 hour ago, weirpig said:

    Just as a matter of interest  do  models take into consideration  streamers etc?  By that i mean do they forecast the chesire gap etc   because looking at the above chart it seems that the snow chance could  move alot more inland then is currently showing.

    The NWP model output that you are considering certainly don't factor in small topographical features like the Cheshire Gap as the resolution of the model is not nearly fine enough to be able to do so.

    As computing power continues to increase then the resolution of the models will be able to get to a point where they can consider topographical features and localised weather features such as the development of thunderstorms, but as yet that level of model run is not possible unless it is of a very narrow focus.

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