[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

All the commentary on GFS yet just 1 above on UKMO

Lovely upgrade there with a potential wintry event day 7 ....

Do you ever run your phone on more than 10% Battery, Steve?

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 minutes ago, Selliso said:

Is there a little low forming just off the Hebrides? Looks like circulation on the radar...? 

Definitely a circulation there over 4hrs

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Have to disagree on this - there is cold air penetrating the UK tonight, widespread frost expected, with lows -3 degrees. There is snow at 500 metres on the Cumbrian fells today. Last week delivered snowfall to here, this week will see colder uppers and thicknesses mid week than last. Evaporative cooling effect, favourable dewpoints, frontal activity rather than convection - all enhance the risk of snow down to very low levels for many.

Was on the fells this afternnoon. freezing level much nearer 750metres by end of day with one hell of a wind chill . Evaporative cooling is great.... but then as soon as percipitation eases it all melts in 20 mins!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Oh well, that settles it then. It's not like weather conditions can change or that we have colder air spreading south over the next few days. The snow risks showing on various computer models must be a figment of our imagination.

Well we'll see and no one more than i would like to see you all right, but at at the moment there is nothing like enough embedded cold for a decent snow event without altitude. Of course ... this may just be the start of greater things but the way ALL models have been modelling synoptics beyond around 120hrs no one can reliably say at present.  It is good model watching though!!

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Think some of the posters on here need to get real. There is nothing like cold enough temperatures in place for any real or lasting snow event. Its getting on for 3 degrees at 80m in  south Cumbria at the moment and no chance of snow below 750m in the foreseeable future. get off the happy pills and give yourselves a break- its not going to happen for most!

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

2 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Well, the FV3 is meant to better because it's the updated one isn't it which gives me a bit of encouragement.

And however unlikely with reference to  that frame, has a far greater probability in being correct than anything modelled in Feb at this point

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

For all the talk of bias in the models, I'm beginning to think there's a bias in them towards giving us winter nirvana in FI.

Simply incredibly high ratio of how often those FI charts promise compared to how often they deliver!

I suggested something very similar 2 winters ago:

|"Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17 

Steve Thexton replied to phil nw.'s topic in Model Discussion Archive

hahahaha feb1991, you could have posted that chart as a copy of 95% of the last 4 frames for every run this winter. I'm Only a novice on here but one thing I have learnt is that GFS is a joke beyond about 180hrs and much of the time that is generous! It does provide entertainment mind... even if very frustrating"

 I am a long time follower of this thread and although am frequently lost in the technicalities often put forward am incredibly grateful for the time and efforts given by 'some' of the more knowledgeable - cheers guys it is really appreciated by many on here.

It does seem 'Timmytour,' that someone has told GFS it's winter and it obliges 3 runs out of 4 dropping deep blues and purples post 240hrs across our neck of the woods because "it's winter" and there's a good chance it should be cold and it obliges!

What seems so unfortunate is that so much vitreole can emanate from some on what they seem to perceive as written in stone at 10 days +  

It would be fascinating to survey the number of posts since 1st November that started, or have the line equal or similar to, -  great outputs... "in 10 days time..."  Perhaps, if all only looked at all models up to 240hrs  the animosity between some and between one model or the other would be a little less tiresome.

I will stick my head down now for another couple of years - Happy snowballing!

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Thank you Ed, Mike & Mucka, very helpful of you all. Definitely bring it on if it 'accurately' and regularly suggests snow!

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

FV3?? guys for us mere mortals 

 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17]

Well lets hope so, that would look, 'to me,' like some lovely days all be it a bit chilly first thing in a morning.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17]

hahahaha feb1991,  you could have posted that chart as a copy of 95% of the last 4 frames for every run this winter.  I'm Only a novice on here but one thing I have learnt is that GFS is a joke beyond about 180hrs and much of the time that is generous!  It does provide entertainment mind... even if very frustrating

[Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards]

Hi Emma, basically when people talk about "energy going under" they are referring to the the fact that when Low pressure in the Atlantic (energy) "undercuts " or "goes under" (to the south) of a blocking high pressure situated in or around our vicinity then this is likely to draw colder winds in from the east. If the energy or low pressure goes over the top (to the north) of the blocking high pressure then this will draw in warmer westerly winds ( the normal situation).

 

Here is a very basic paint pic to give an example

 

 

 

Thanks Chris (and The Enforcer Later) I am pretty new on here and that graphic illustration helps us newbies a lot.