Day 10

ECM 6z

Joe Bloggs Modelling systems WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Numerical models are at the heart of our forecasts and products as well as much of our research and development. Jackski4 That's if it reaches us, nervy evening runs coming up.

The latest Met Office run which updates the apps hourly has this, the front is definitely slowing up as we edge nearer.

Chris.R How do you change location on it? Chris.R It's ok, done it

Spah1 It's a notable shift though, too hard not to ignore. The latest WRF still looks fine however.

Thunder Snow Well according to the latest Arpege, nothing mate as the bulk of the snow is now struggling to reach Manchester. Horrible feeling about this now, starting to feel like a few years back when it corrected south 20-40 hours out. Fizzles out over us...

Hmmmm, the very latest run in the Arpege has slowed the front down by quite a bit. 0z on the left. The bulk of the snow stays in the Midlands and Wales, surely this cannot be happening again. The front has stalled.

Spah1 The text to go with it. Reason for update Warning extended to cover Northern Ireland while the southern boundary has been moved north. Start and end times adjusted. A band of rain, sleet, and increasingly snow, will push north on Thursday bringing up to 2cm snow at lower-levels, 2-5cm on ground above 200m, and perhaps as much as 15-25cm above 400m, along with a risk of some icy conditions. The snow will ease later in the day, and may turn back to rain or drizzle, especially in the south and east of the area. There is some uncertainty with respect to the rain/snow boundary, and the northern limit of the snow, and so details may change in the coming days as confidence increases in these aspects. The bold bit is bound to upgrade to amber tomorrow.

I'd be surprised if some amber warnings for higher areas didn't appear this morning (for Thurs).

The Met Apps for here which started at 11c for Thurs a few days back have gone 11,9,7,5,3 and the latest is now 2 with snow symbols instead of sleet, a sign the mild air might not push through as quick as the models have been predicting.

The second pulse has definitely shifted south for Friday, some areas could actually see 2 days of snowfall.

Chris.R Yes, it does seem to have slowed down at touch as we get nearer which is great.

All good this morning. The Met: The word rain removed for Thurs or most of it Outlook for Thursday to Saturday: Turning unsettled again to end the week with blustery winds. Uncertain arrival of some snow on Thursday, potentially disruptive in places, then outbreaks of rain lingering into Friday and Saturday. Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 6 Feb 2024 GFS ECM WRF Plus there are already tentative signs the second push on Friday won't get as far north, one to watch.

GFS

GFS looks ok too with a decent period of snow for many, just need it to stall now between Cheshire & Carlisle

Back on phone but icon looks ok.

Weather-history Interesting read as always.

The Northern Ramper Yes definitely, I viewed from afar for a number of years before joining in 2015, really good back then. Our thread ain't bad at all though

iand61 Bingo

Jackski4 The weather

Jackski4 The mod thread was much better 5 years ago.

Jackski4 It gets very messy after Thurs, I wouldn't bother looking much past that at the mo.

There appear to be 2 pulses of snow, so there's something for everyone! Time for the second one to elongate and flatten out to stay more of snow too.

Spah1 Cheers, nice one

Joe Snow That's ace, it looks like an asteroid has just hit, with a photo snapped just before the heat wave hits to frazzle everyone.