Chris Wsm

well a couple of things about ECM that I have noticed, 1, the progression between +144 and +168 looks way to fast for me , a 1020 High , to our NE replaced with a 995 low in 24 hours seems to quick . and also even if ECM is right in it's end frames , the core of the reformed Vortex is yet again trying to move East into Scandi . In turn this could set up yet another Northerly .

That Easterly would likely deliever alot more precipitation than shown , with -10 850's and all that troughing to the South.

I hope the Navgem is on to something , The Cold spell never ends ..

Lol this time next week we will all be looking for the next Cold spell at +240 hours ....We will never change in here ha !

I would expect euro 4 to upgrade that a little nearer the time , as by Sunday morning we should be in a much Colder Airmass .

I See a new period of Snow is showing for us tomorrow night .... Wonder if it will actually happen this time .

Well at least Ian is confirming it is polar low

Snowing heavy in weston again, on the coast

its forecast to move down the irish sea bringing strong to galeforce winds and more organised precipitation

Im right on the coast in Weston , and in that last shower it was snowing on the pier. So anything that falls from now on should be all snow

Not sure but I expect it will enhance showers later running down the Irish sea , good to see Snow now falling for Andy , the Snow line must be starting to move further South .

Model thread going on about a possible polar low forming NW of Scotland . Looks like one on this website http://www.sat24.com/?culture=en

Monday still looking a little dodgy for us IMO , that Warm sector goes right over our area during the event , So we nee to hope that as the low moves SE it pushes the precipitation back West later ... At the minute , Id say Snow to Rain and then back to Snow , but any further Northward movement of the low and it could be Rain from the start . In situations like this the track of the low is very important , too far South and you lose the precipitation , to far North and its rain for the SW . We could also do with initial precipitation beating the Warmer air . All in all , i'd say 50% of seeing anything significant .

i still wouldn't write off seeing some Snow tonight into tomorrow , 850's are -6 / -7 , due points are -1/-2 and the dam line is at least 528 over most of us , Showers look heavy and plentiful , given the strong Cold flow . I have seen it snow in a lot more marginal conditions than this .. I expect most places will at least see falling Snow in the heavy showers tonight ...

Will probably miss both , but you can be a 100% sure it will snow on Narborough Road , our old haunting ground lol . Im now South of the M4 , Your North , let the battle begin .