Connor Bailey Degnan

Weeks of potential has turned into a week of cooler than average conditions and frost. I fear many people will feel exactly the same. Been well and truly taken up the garden path once again.

ATM this is giving me Decemeber 2022 vibes, very cold with very little snow Atleast Initially, but fingers crossed things improve later on!

Brilliant day 9 mean ecm

Fantastic set of runs. Some folk need to chill a little. Winter proper is just around the corner ;)

Gem, locked and loaded

Potential snow maker, low to South and cold air diving south.

I've not posted much in the last week or so, but I've been viewing the forums with fascination whilst also following the charts. Since I joined 6 years ago, this is by far the busiest and most upbeat I've ever seen it in here. We've had a very decent cold spell which is ultimately coming to and end this weekend. Some have seen significant snow, some haven't. With about 80% of winter left to go, I'm not too worried. The models are all over the place atm and FI is about 84hrs. I'm still happy and comfortable in saying I think we will see an even better cold spell with more snow around the Christmas period running into early January. This will be my last post before Christmas so whatever your plans, have a good one.

Gem says merry Christmas everyone!!

Nice little streamer popped up for Saturday

Is winter coming home along with football! What a peach

Pure filth!

That has to be the most underplayed forecast I've ever seen from the met. Settling snow won't be confided to Scottish hills. Little troughs can pop up at a days notice. While I do agree, the risk of snow THIS week has somewhat been watered down, I believe it will be a long term gain.

Some people are never satisfied. One hiccup and the panicking starts. There's variation and changes run to run on all output. We aren't going to know exact details regarding any snow until atleast early next week. I think some need to chill out and enjoy the ride. The professionals are all on board and they wouldn't be so forward if they didn't have high confidence. Winter is coming and it's coming next week!

Vast majority of GFS blew the Atlantic up in 2010 in fi. Amazes me people looking for a breakdown before we potentially see the real deal end of next week. Just no pleasing some. We are all set for a potentially brilliant cold spell.

Just to calm the nerves, the ecm had the occasional wobble in the run up to Dec 2010. Overall though, it was a clean route to cold. I fully expect the 12z ecm to come back on board.

ECM mean, steady as she goes. .

Happy Meteorological Winter everyone! All set for a December to remember!

1.2c, 27mm

Ecm mean looks good to me

GEM couldn't be further apart from the GFS.

37.6 Heathrow Airport, Wednesday 13 July 2022

Gfs 6z, still not having it. Going the same way as the 0z Op. Imo we need to be back on track for the 12z, as little doubts are starting to set in. Let's hope its at the bottom end of the ens again.

I hate to ask, but has the UK ever had a colder than Average Jan and Feb when the Dec CET is above 6? Can't think of one. Unfortunately this winter looks like it's going down the gutter.

Perhaps I was daft to say game over this morning with the Ecm and UKMO both being poor. Please let's have a good ecm tonight for complete model agreement which we have seriously lacked in the build up to this potential cold snap. Unprecedented model divergence. But for now atleast; the game is back on!

Ukmo and ecm aren't both going to be wrong at 120hrs. Sorry but game over