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Pat Butcher

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Everything posted by Pat Butcher

  1. Pat Butcher
    Yep, I saw the top of the cell that's over the North York Moors when sferics began around Castleford. It had a cauliflower top, and wasn't making any effort to flatten into an anvil.
  2. Pat Butcher
    Miles off - which is a good thing, that forecast was pretty dull IMO
  3. Pat Butcher
    Is anyone else quite surprised at the squall that's popped up around Shrewsbury?
  4. Pat Butcher
    Fairly optimistic - the cold front is slightly slower than forecast, and the Met Office have extended their warning area westwards towards Manchester. East of the Pennines plausibly looks in the firing line.
  5. Pat Butcher
    Probably many lightning strikes over Blaenau Ffestiniog. At 10ish miles away, the middling frequencies that give the thunderclap definition are rather attenuated, and the low frequencies are probably smeared together by reverberation off the mountains.
  6. Pat Butcher
    UK weather warnings WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings. Surprisey thunderstorm warning from Met Office. I wonder what they're seeing that I'm not - there's no evidence of modelled precip popping up on radar so far.
  7. Pat Butcher
    This is good news. Personally, I don't think this is a thrilling weather anomaly that will be interesting to experience - I'm in fact very anxious about it. The sooner it clears off, the better.
  8. Pat Butcher
    Apologies for the newbie question - within an ensemble run, should the operational run be given more weight than its ensemble counterparts? i.e. is that extreme outlier operational run as equally 'likely' as the other ensemble runs, or is it more likely because it's the operational?
  9. Pat Butcher
    Love it. Still FI but this feature has popped up in quite a few runs now...
  10. Pat Butcher
    The cloudscapes here in Leeds are looking quite convective.
  11. Pat Butcher
    I saw that! Total FI stuff, but as I recall there was a huge MCS that engulfed most of England in that run.
  12. Pat Butcher
    In my unprofessional opinion it's too early to tell. The models all tell a different story. In particular, the GFS varies from run to run in terms of its CIN chart. We know that capping plays a huge role in setups like this one, so it might be an on-the-day job once there's more certainty as to likely affected areas.
  13. Pat Butcher
    Bognor looking pretty spicy at the moment: Bognor Regis WestCam - Live webcam view with sound of West Beach Bognor Regis WWW.BOGNOR.TODAY Bognor Regis beach live webcam from the Pier at Bognor Regis, West Sussex UK. Live HD streaming webcam view of West Beach looking towards Aldwick, Pagham and Selsey.
  14. Pat Butcher
    Yeah that's top drawer Jamie, nice one - saves having to scrabble around these nonsense webcam sites if it all kicks off. Good luck, hope you get a pelter!
  15. Pat Butcher
    Highly unlikely - a thunderclap is around 120dB, with 150dB required to shatter eardrums. Noise Comparisons WWW.CHEM.PURDUE.EDU Any prolonged exposure to 120dB is enough to damage hearing - the tinnitus you get after attending a loud gig is a consequence of this damage. However, the nature of the damage tends to be that it builds over time, and results in degraded hearing and tinnitus later in life, as opposed to the immediate and catastrophic impairment that you describe.
  16. Pat Butcher
    Sorry mate, London or LBA? I live near LBA and it's a pretty standard Westerly gale right now - yellow warning is about bob on.
  17. Pat Butcher
    BBC is Meteoblue, right?
  18. Pat Butcher
    Wow. Good find!
  19. Pat Butcher
    This is the same feature two hours earlier on the AROME model on Windy. Out of interest, is that abrupt 'wall' of wind and change in direction textbook sting jet?
  20. Pat Butcher
    Crikey, this brings Northern England right into the mix during rush hour. I'd expect the Amber to run all the way up to the Borders should this become more likely. I'd put whoever you're meeting in London on notice that you may not make it if the weather's bad. I think the odds of that train service going ahead are <5% at this point.
  21. Pat Butcher
    That's really interesting, thank you for the insight!
  22. Pat Butcher
    I was wondering about this. I would expect that a Hebridean shepherd's cottage can withstand a lot more than a newbuild in the Fens, but is there anything codified in the building codes as to what level of resilience is standard?
  23. Pat Butcher
    I live near Leeds Bradford, and it's bloody blowing, I tell you. Open to correction from aviation anoraks here but it's blowing straight down/up the runway, I think the limits on headwinds/tailwinds are much tighter than they are crosswinds.
  24. Pat Butcher
    I appreciate it's not your mate's fault, but in general the blasé attitude to weather in this country is ridiculous. In my opinion, a Red warning should be grounds for all non-essential workplaces to close for the day.
  25. Pat Butcher
    This is exceptional stuff, there seems to be model agreement for 90+mph gusts too.
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