Ventnor Viking

Not a drop of anything in the air on the south coast of the Isle of Wight. It was a clutching at straws scenario and the majority of models did eventually show the precipitation just to the south of us. But wtf! I could probably stand at the viewpoint up the road and see it snowing out at sea

Couldn't agree more. It gets tiring.

Looks like a snow event is definitely off the cards now. It was never really on really, but it was nice to be in the mix for a short while

WARNING MOAN ALERT! Does anyone ever think that model watching is pointless? With all the money they have spent on upgrades etc it just feels as though there hasn't been much progress since the 90's. The inconsistency past day 5 is dreadful and is no different from the 90's. I love the weather but model watching is rolling a dice from run to run and it doesn't mean anything now it feels like when anything slightly different from the bulk standard westerlies are on the cards.

Morning all. Sorry unable to post charts right now and just observation from my perspective, but it all seems very underwhelming. I've thought this for a couple of days now. No prolonged cold, short cool/cold snap coming up and then the Atlantic brings in milder air. There is nothing in the northern hemisphere to maintain anything decent. The PV takes up position to our north/northwest again which fuels the jet and makes our weather more mobile.

Further increases in arctic sea ice (which is great to see) is an indicator that the PV is regrouping at present. This is will set up Northern Canada/Western Greenland which means no blocking to our west for the foreseeable.

I agree, plenty of ice days in there too. I was also looking at the placement of that high and thinking it would likely be a scandi high. That said, this run initially pushes the milder air south towards northern France within the reliable so thats a positive and anything after the 5 days will and has constantly changed. On to the 0z

Snowing here in Niton IOW for about 2 hours settling at times

I lived in Shaftesbury up until about 2 years ago. Great place for colder weather and snow. I miss the town for that.

Guaranteed rain for the Isle of Wight though

Energy moving into Northern Canada/Western Greenland was something I was concerned abouta while ago. This is always the biggest downfull of most Greenland blocks. There isn't enough energy shifted across to Asia, therefore it allows the PV to rejoin and potentially start to reform to the north of us. This will always be the hindrance with most northern blocking attempts. This is why I'm much more in favour of a Scandinavian high, with a retrogress to Greenland. The straight Greenland blocks rarely have longevity.

I'd say the last laying snow was in 2018. Which isn't probably too dissimilar to many other southern regions. Very dependent on wind direction here. An easterly would be best for us here with a channel low. The rest of south is looking excellent for potential snow, obviously things can and will change slightly but this is definitely our best chance since 2018

It appears that the Isle of Wight is a repelling magnet for any snow this cold spell All models have snow everywhere else except the Island, its completely clear. Its bizarre.

I noticed the Pacific high edging into the arctic. If that links up then that will be some block and will take some shifting.

More consistency with this up coming cold spell from the models. Definitely caution needed as to how long this will last. The biggest down fall of Greenland blocks is the energy pushing in to northern Canada as that causes the block to collapse rapidly. I know this is deep fi, but this is just an example of what to look out for. Circled in red in the US is a monster winter storm, which would probably be record cold and snow for the northern states if this came off. What it does do though is push into northern Canada causing our block to collapse. Ideally here we need this to push much further north and hopefully linking up to the artic high, although very unlikely at this stage due to not enough of the vortex shifting over to Asia.

While normally I'd tend to agree, I do think with all things considered there are so too many factors at play for there not to be any form of amplification in the north Atlantic. Another crucial aspect will be where the arctic high pushes too. Will be very interesting to see how this plays out.

ECM v GFS! Who will win. My hunch is with ECM, mainly down to its consistency. There are so many drivers pointing to cold (sorry can't attach specifics atm) plus the GEM and to an extent the JMA is following suite. The GFS is out on its own at the moment.

I haven't seen that much cold uppers over the arctic for a long time and over such a wide area as shown on the GFS 12z. This also ties in with the arctic sea ice gains as shown below. Its finally making its way back in to the 1980-2010 range, which it hasn't been in for quite sometime. What this does mean is that if the SSW takes place then there is plenty of cold air to displace Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4985157

While thats true, you can only comment on whats being run and displayed - oneday they will come off. That said living on the south coast of the Isle of Wight would mean even the coldest charts would produce a bit of light rain and mist

I haven't seen that much cold uppers over the arctic for a long time and over such a wide area as shown on the GFS 12z. This also ties in with the arctic sea ice gains as shown below. Its finally making its way back in to the 1980-2010 range, which it hasn't been in for quite sometime. What this does mean is that if the SSW takes place then there is plenty of cold air to displace

I agree, I still think there's potential. It becomes very mild though throughout the run, which was complete contrast to the 0z. I think over the next few days we will see a great deal of inconsistency regarding the positioning of some lows and amplification. This can only be sorted once the artic profile has all of the correct data from top to bottom. Only then will we see consistency. Until then I'm just enjoying the ride.

Absolutely. It's a great set up for the Scottish Ski resorts, plenty of moisture and cold air for them in the latest run.

Well that was a sobering 06z run I'm sure the 12z will be a little different. Whenever major changes are a foot the models get right on the christmas booze and don't even try to get any accuracy until its nearly on our doorstep. Happy Christmas everyone

For the Midlands north in this set up I reckon due to the uppers and definitely for the higher ground more so. The uppers dont get below -5 from Oxford south

I don't think this post has anything to do with the forecast really. It's more to do with the reliability of GFS compared to UKMO and ECMWF.