Jump to content

Shaftesbury Snow

Members
  • Content Count

    100
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

209

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Shaftesbury, Dorset (759 ft asl)

Recent Profile Visitors

1,211 profile views
  1. Posted November 26, 2018 (edited) GFS keeping things mild up to 144hrs The pattern is unlikely to change until mid-late January in my opinion based on all of the long range models and the fact that we are continuously chasing FI November 26, 2018 by Shaftesbury Snow ---------------------------------------------------------------------- The post above is what I posted back 5-6 weeks ago and was based on many different models, solar activity, sea temps etc. and I got slated for it, even called vile names in a private message! However, I had 7 separate users message me t
  2. Unfortunately a SSW doesn't always mean cold and If we have a HP over us then it would make energy less progressive towards us and divert else where more than likely to our east. Its sometimes easier to go into a SSW with zonal weather as its more fluent and can be displaced far easier for a block to form.
  3. The position of the HP is obviously crucial here and Im sure there will be some interesting variations within the models over the next few days, especially with to how far north it pushes. Also worth pointing out, HP upper air temps can sometimes be higher than surface temps especially when frost and freezing fog are involved.
  4. Hi Ben - Indeed, I agree that it will be more mid Jan (I think I updated y thoughts on that in other posts). It looks like there are attempts to get things colder for Xmas but the likely hood is that it wont be as cold as it is modelling now. With the the way NH profile is looking shaping up its normal to see lots of different scenarios put out there, which is always easy on the eye, but its equally important to keep perspective as well. 2-3 weeks from now the models should hopefully be showing something consistent and with the help of a much talked about SSW could bring us a decent set
  5. Any snow on Saturday night will be unfortunately transient and wet. Better than nothing I guess. The NH is looking great for the new year though...patience is needed, it will come though I'm sure
  6. To be fair it was looking good. I honestly want cold as much as everyone else. Ive been there, as we all have, when we think its odds in then we have our hopes taken away by the models ? 10 days time would be great, perfect for christmas. I still think mid-late Jan will be good for us (i dont get joy in saying that) but thats where all the indicators are pointing and thats not changed a great deal.
  7. Hi @icecold so 10 days is up........(banter btw before emotions run high) My perspective still has not changed. Still looking at mid to later January for anything significant and a SSW will be needed to help things along. Id also just like to make the point that im hunting for cold with you all but Im seeing at a slightly different time than most and that doesn't = trolling ? btw if people werent so snappy and bullish to jump on people with a different outlook to their own I would write more meaningful posts......... As I mentioned 10 days ago there would weak attempts
  8. Patience is the key here. It will come but we just need to bide our time. The way im looking at it is enjoy Christmas and the build up etc and then when the Christmas blues set in after new year the fun will begin in January with the pattern change and the models firming up with the change with consistency to lift our meteorological spirits ?
  9. I appreciate that and points well made. I don't think there will be a pattern change in December as such, not a lasting one, but my gut feeling is that it will start to take place after new year and set us up nicely. Unfortunately I don't really see much cold until then. I would love to be proved wrong though big time!
  10. To be honest Im not here to make enemies - when I wrote the below post yesterday it was exactly in context with other discussions at the time such as blocking etc " On ‎26‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 16:18, Shaftesbury Snow said: GFS keeping things mild up to 144hrs The pattern is unlikely to change until late January in my opinion based on all of the long range models and the fact that we are continuously chasing FI" I definitely don't take long range models as gospel but I also observe sun spot predictions, look out for SSW, MJO and lots of other things. I think many oth
  11. Just to clarify again. A back loaded winter means cold - blocked - snow in the second half of winter. I referred to a major pattern change going in to mid to late Jan onwards. I posted this morning charts to back this up...please take a look. I also called zonal up to 144hrs on yesterdays 12z GFS. I definitely did not rule out any cold in December , however I did say any cold wont last long in December and would probably be transient and weak. There wont be the major patter change just yet though that will happen in January based on the attached. There will be attempts at it though a
  12. To be fair I don't think anyone has written off winter. I think many of us are hoping for the cold to come through quicker then actually will. In fact, March has actually been one of the snowiest months in recent winters, so there's still loads of time left
  13. Hi Yarmy, I totally agree and good point. It was more to show that these runs chop and change so much and we need to be looking at the broader patterns. Sorry if you have already seen it but I posted a couple of longer range models which show a back loaded winter (blocked pattern, Greenland High and undercutting lows bringing snow) which I think will be the case. The GFS does love the zonal pattern for sure. The high in the arctic is pretty much driving the models such as the GFS and ECM and with every different position they present that high that's when we see some exciting output, both
  14. I think it is more than likely going to be the case. Its quite unusual to get a prolonged cold period in December, that's not to say its not possible. Recent times we have seen that but most prolonged cold spells have started in Jan or just after Christmas. The NH is all out of sync so there will be all kinds of runs thrown up some look spectacular and some look terrible.
  15. I think it is. There maybe some transient colder periods before then but the main pattern change will be in Jan. (based on longer range models...before I get kicked in the balls again)
×
×
  • Create New...