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Shaftesbury Snow

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    Shaftesbury, Dorset (759 ft asl)

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  1. Posted November 26, 2018 (edited) GFS keeping things mild up to 144hrs The pattern is unlikely to change until mid-late January in my opinion based on all of the long range models and the fact that we are continuously chasing FI November 26, 2018 by Shaftesbury Snow ---------------------------------------------------------------------- The post above is what I posted back 5-6 weeks ago and was based on many different models, solar activity, sea temps etc. and I got slated for it, even called vile names in a private message! However, I had 7 separate users message me to see they agreed but didn't want to post because of the backlash they saw I had, even from forum hosts. I don't feel smug, I just feel the regulars should give other people a chance to voice a realistic forecast not based on emotions, which many of you do!!! Its almost like being an out of towner going into a local pub and feeling uncomfortable in here, this is also back backed by others that messaged me. I see many of the "respected forecasters" (you know who they all are) repeatedly get in wrong in here with only love shown to them. I put a prediction which was well considered, but due to circumstances could not elaborate on at that time. I was planning later that evening to back it all up, instead I had to deal with playground intimidation. I have had training in meteorology and would have loved to have contributed to this local pub, I mean forum!! I couldn't care less if this gets taken down as I don't even bother here, but this is just some feedback in case anyone with a realistic forecast different to yours comes on here. Happy New Year all
  2. Unfortunately a SSW doesn't always mean cold and If we have a HP over us then it would make energy less progressive towards us and divert else where more than likely to our east. Its sometimes easier to go into a SSW with zonal weather as its more fluent and can be displaced far easier for a block to form.
  3. The position of the HP is obviously crucial here and Im sure there will be some interesting variations within the models over the next few days, especially with to how far north it pushes. Also worth pointing out, HP upper air temps can sometimes be higher than surface temps especially when frost and freezing fog are involved.
  4. Hi Ben - Indeed, I agree that it will be more mid Jan (I think I updated y thoughts on that in other posts). It looks like there are attempts to get things colder for Xmas but the likely hood is that it wont be as cold as it is modelling now. With the the way NH profile is looking shaping up its normal to see lots of different scenarios put out there, which is always easy on the eye, but its equally important to keep perspective as well. 2-3 weeks from now the models should hopefully be showing something consistent and with the help of a much talked about SSW could bring us a decent set up for cold
  5. Any snow on Saturday night will be unfortunately transient and wet. Better than nothing I guess. The NH is looking great for the new year though...patience is needed, it will come though I'm sure
  6. To be fair it was looking good. I honestly want cold as much as everyone else. Ive been there, as we all have, when we think its odds in then we have our hopes taken away by the models 10 days time would be great, perfect for christmas. I still think mid-late Jan will be good for us (i dont get joy in saying that) but thats where all the indicators are pointing and thats not changed a great deal.
  7. Hi @icecold so 10 days is up........(banter btw before emotions run high) My perspective still has not changed. Still looking at mid to later January for anything significant and a SSW will be needed to help things along. Id also just like to make the point that im hunting for cold with you all but Im seeing at a slightly different time than most and that doesn't = trolling btw if people werent so snappy and bullish to jump on people with a different outlook to their own I would write more meaningful posts......... As I mentioned 10 days ago there would weak attempts and the odd transient cold period which I think is all we can expect this side of Christmas/New Year
  8. Patience is the key here. It will come but we just need to bide our time. The way im looking at it is enjoy Christmas and the build up etc and then when the Christmas blues set in after new year the fun will begin in January with the pattern change and the models firming up with the change with consistency to lift our meteorological spirits
  9. I appreciate that and points well made. I don't think there will be a pattern change in December as such, not a lasting one, but my gut feeling is that it will start to take place after new year and set us up nicely. Unfortunately I don't really see much cold until then. I would love to be proved wrong though big time!
  10. To be honest Im not here to make enemies - when I wrote the below post yesterday it was exactly in context with other discussions at the time such as blocking etc " On ‎26‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 16:18, Shaftesbury Snow said: GFS keeping things mild up to 144hrs The pattern is unlikely to change until late January in my opinion based on all of the long range models and the fact that we are continuously chasing FI" I definitely don't take long range models as gospel but I also observe sun spot predictions, look out for SSW, MJO and lots of other things. I think many others on here today are now following the idea of a pattern change (blocked and cold) into January. Much of the talk on this thread has not been about day to day models and many have spoken about the bigger picture etc. No one else has been slated today for saying similar to me. Maybe they have better reputations and people don't want to offend them. My previous post to this is exactly what I said and I stand by that. If you follow the day to day models for the hunt for cold it will drive you mad, I just look for tends and broader NH profiles and the day to day models have moved away from a blocking scenario at the moment going into December. Anyway, apologies to any offence caused to anyone
  11. Just to clarify again. A back loaded winter means cold - blocked - snow in the second half of winter. I referred to a major pattern change going in to mid to late Jan onwards. I posted this morning charts to back this up...please take a look. I also called zonal up to 144hrs on yesterdays 12z GFS. I definitely did not rule out any cold in December , however I did say any cold wont last long in December and would probably be transient and weak. There wont be the major patter change just yet though that will happen in January based on the attached. There will be attempts at it though as the NH profile is out of sync. To anyone else who is referring to my posts please quote them as you will see they are quite different to what is being said. Does this now make it clearer? I think you have also contradicted yourself there. Please quote where you think I said things and I will happily clear up any confusion The links - Canadian model from dec to feb and then JMA dec to feb
  12. To be fair I don't think anyone has written off winter. I think many of us are hoping for the cold to come through quicker then actually will. In fact, March has actually been one of the snowiest months in recent winters, so there's still loads of time left
  13. Hi Yarmy, I totally agree and good point. It was more to show that these runs chop and change so much and we need to be looking at the broader patterns. Sorry if you have already seen it but I posted a couple of longer range models which show a back loaded winter (blocked pattern, Greenland High and undercutting lows bringing snow) which I think will be the case. The GFS does love the zonal pattern for sure. The high in the arctic is pretty much driving the models such as the GFS and ECM and with every different position they present that high that's when we see some exciting output, both the ECM and GFS are really struggling with it at the moment. Out of those two models I favour the ECMWF just from past experience as the GFS seems to follow this model rather than the other way round.
  14. I think it is more than likely going to be the case. Its quite unusual to get a prolonged cold period in December, that's not to say its not possible. Recent times we have seen that but most prolonged cold spells have started in Jan or just after Christmas. The NH is all out of sync so there will be all kinds of runs thrown up some look spectacular and some look terrible.
  15. I think it is. There maybe some transient colder periods before then but the main pattern change will be in Jan. (based on longer range models...before I get kicked in the balls again)
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