I've read it your saying the middle of the month a week after me. It's a reflective displacement event. Trop responses are very quick in this scenario. They always are in this type of displacement especially so pronounced. Where's your reasoning other than to say you think there's tentative signals from the strat. Fire your tropics knowledge at me for a start. You are a poster that relies on past experience with models but you can't do the climate is an ever changing animal