Jump to content


  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

916 Exceptional

1 Follower

Profile Information

  • Gender
  • Location

Recent Profile Visitors

2,389 profile views
  1. The weeklies were showing Greenland heights from the 28th which looking at 192 we could see next frame
  2. Looking at the Day 10 ECM it doesn't take much imagination to see where the Week 2 EC46 Greenland heights may come from 28th onwards. Upgrades short AND longer term for me
  3. Those uppers will be better as well. GEM has a known bias with under doing the uppers
  4. What's interesting is the anomalies over the med which screams sliders/battleground. Really feels like a 47 set up
  5. Them last 3 posts are unbelievably consice common sense posts. You did a good job in Feb/March predicting the tropospheric impacts of the last SSW so my advise is stick to what you believe is right. I think the slower downwell and tropical discrepancies are making good posters doubt themselves and that includes the MET who I believe are taking the weather models too literally and swaying within ensembles instead of using some human interpretation to second guess when some output may be wrong against background factors
  6. What we are seeing is 3 different stages of output. Stage 1 - increased amp from tropical signals (which I think will trend further for a couple of days) toppling Greenland heights Stage 2 - Lagged effect from the displacement SSW and flushing of zonal winds (PV locating from West to east from Canada to Siberia) this is what scuppers the tropical amp because it chucks some of the PV north of us as it works across and stops the heights building in turn creating the unsettled weather met office talk about Stage 3 - This will be the lagged effect of the split and renewed Greenland ridging in behind and is when our best chance of cold n snow mid month will come
  7. I agree fine margins. But get the block at a high enough latitude and we have a Greenland high northerly and Easterlies. It will slow the jet and drive split energy
  8. It's why I'm kind of happier the split is smaller than the feb18 one. Fine margins but sets us up for less chance of a west based NAO if and when we get propagation
  9. They will come as the models filter in the zonal winds dropping like a stone. Baby steps
  10. That lobe of death is needed to drive WAA up the west side of Greenland! Just stop annoying people with insane analysis of charts. Your misleading newbies and it's wrong
  11. Again look at the split of purples n build of high pressure over the pole. You do understand that or just guessing?
  12. Are you on the wind up look at how the purples at high latitudes drain over the pole! It's ripe for high lat blocking. The best UKMO 144 I've seen in response to the SSW!