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  1. I suggest before you post you first put "there is a theory that.... And so son. To write with certainty is misleading and extremely wrong for people who don't understand the topic. It's verging on unacceptable in my eyes as a scientist
  2. As a scientist myself I cannot allow posts like what was writ to be left unchallenged as it simply wasn't true was it
  3. Not one bit of this is proven. Its all theory so it needs to not be written with such certainty. I'm not saying it might not be true but it's theory and that's it
  4. Thought as much. Your a good member of this group but try to back up what you say mate
  5. Let's see how it pans out shall we. Until then I'd like to hear your scientific reasoning behind your opinion. Nothing more nothing less
  6. I think I'll get you a job with the met office if you've messed up once in 5 years...... Oh dear!
  7. All I'm saying is based on what we know the ecm output is miles miles more plausible than the gfs. I never said it was nailed on that's why I said 60-70% but there is 100% no reason to be pessimistic at this stage when the colder option is more likely
  8. I've read it your saying the middle of the month a week after me. It's a reflective displacement event. Trop responses are very quick in this scenario. They always are in this type of displacement especially so pronounced. Where's your reasoning other than to say you think there's tentative signals from the strat. Fire your tropics knowledge at me for a start. You are a poster that relies on past experience with models but you can't do the climate is an ever changing animal
  9. It's 10 past 12 and I can't be assed to show you but I can explain. We've just had a record breaking displacement event moving the core of the strat away from Greenland to Scandinavia leaving a vacuum for high pressure in the Greenland locale. Without AAM support this would at the very least support a strong topper scenario. However we have AAM support and an upcoming MJO orbit which at the same time lends to an idea of height rises in the North West. All these factors together and breaking the science down simply implies the ecm scenario is extremely plausible. I'd put it at 60-70% minimum. The gfs outcome has no scientific background support its just throwing out a random couple of runs from its clusters. You are basing on the ecm being wrong because of previous let downs and patterns models take. If I'm wrong about this this is now your turn to explain why I'm wrong and your not??
  10. Mate your being pessimistic. End of. There is support from the strat and tropics for a northerly then slider scenario. It's not pie in the sky at all
  11. What's your thoughts on 2007 comparisons what you expecting? Met office have underestimating this. It's widely above 50mm
  12. This is looking very very grim. Why the complete lack of news coverage. If it was the South East it would be the main story. Very poor I have to say from the press. Also if this wasn't a red alert I don't know what is. How is it not? What does it have to be to go red?
  13. Less than a metre to go to break the record in Rotherham in 2007 with 7 hours moderate to heavy rainfall to come. It's going to be newsworthy I don't think there's any doubt. Keeping a close eye on sever flood warnings now
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